More HOF Discussion

Tom Tango just posted a nice list of the career Win Shares for players (post-Ruth) that are eligible for the Hall of Fame. Take a look.

It's a shame that Raines (390 career WS) isn't getting the consideration he deserves, the same applied for Darrell and Dwight Evans. I know that Win Shares is not the be-all, end-all of statistics, but it's a very good one, and a pretty accurate measure of the contribution one makes to his team over the course of a season or career.

Since you won't find him on that list, I'll let you know that Jim Rice achieved 282 Win Shares during his 16-year career, well behind this list, which includes one of his comparable players "The Snake" Dave Parker, at 327 career Win Shares.

Once again, if Rice is good enough for the HOF, why isn't Parker?

Another Jack Attack

Eric Seidman over at the always useful FanGraphs put together some thoughts on your shortstop, and I think you should go read them.

I think most Pirate fans tend to be on the overly optimistic side when it comes to Jack Wilson, so it's worth pointing out some things:

1. He's had only three seasons where he topped 600 PA's (2003 - 2005), and it's reasonable to expect that at his advancing age, those years are behind him. So, you have to invest in a reasonable replacement for him (i.e. NOT Chris Gomez).
2. As brilliant as he can be with the glove, which saves runs and generally has a somewhat underrated value, do remember that he has only had two seasons above league average in OPS, 2004 and 2007, when he was 104 and 107 in OPS+, respectively. Before you point out that 104 and 107 OPS+ is well above-average for a shortstop (with which I agree), please remind yourself that his other seasons he had the following OPS+: 40, 67, 70, 74, 77, and 77 in (2001-2003, 2005-2006, and 2008). This is all by way of saying to please remember that 2004 and 2007 are outliers, and not indicative of Jack's true talent level.
3. Also, please bear in mind that his high water marks in OBP are .335 and .350, set again in 2004 and 2007, the rest of his OBP season numbers fare no better than .316. Shortstops may not slug the ball with authority, but they should be able to get on base with greater frequency.

It matters little how many outs you contribute while on defense if you give them right back when you come to the plate. I think Jack Wilson should and probably will stay with the Pirates one more year, mostly because Team Neal won't find anyone willing to take him off the Bucs' hands in this market. Prospects have become the most valued commodity in baseball right now, mostly because they are both cheap and controllable, so teams would rather take a chance by hanging onto a prospect with upside than overpaying for a veteran or free agent who is a relatively known quantity. This is particularly true in this economy, where many free agents have been paid below-market value for their services.

Team Neal is hopefully smart enough to know that paying more than nothing or at least very little of Jack's salary this year in a trade should only be used as a means to get a higher value of return in prospects. The people who value Jack Wilson most probably reside in Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean he's being paid an unfair amount. If he does get traded, let's hope the return is of at least comparable value.

"The former was a lulu, and the latter was a cake..."

Ben Henry, proprietor of The Baseball Card Blog, has decided to close up shop, but his last post is something truly awesome.

Go here to check it out: Casey at the Bat.

More from India

Kris Liakos over at Walk Off Walk posted an interview yesterday with everyone's favorite imports from the Indian subcontinent, Rinku and Dinesh.

There's not a lot there, but I'm generally interested in all things involving the Pirates and their Indian pitchers. Here's a nice clip:

Before I hung up I got to talk to JB a little. He made the point that more than Rinku and Dinesh being Indian, it's just amazing that two guys signed a pro contract in a sport that they hadn't heard of 7 months earlier. We racked our brains to come up with someone else like that and couldn't. He asked me if I'd seen the "Babewatch" blog entry. I said I had but I didn't want to bring it up since Rinku seemed mad about it. JB said "he wasn't mad, he was INCENSED." That made me laugh.

If you haven't read the above referenced entry, please treat yourself and go here to read it. And if you don't add their blog to your Google Reader after that, then I don't even want to know you.

Adios, Ron Paul.

No, not this Ron Paul. The Pirates' backup catcher who forgot how to hit and field like a major leaguer somewhere between 2006 and 2007.

Enter Jason Jaramillo, who is basically the same player with (hopefully) a better attitude.

Also, here's Eric Seidman's take (basically Phillie-centric) at Fangraphs.

Personally, I'm not shedding any tears now that Paulino is officially gone. I had expected him to be dealt sometime before spring training, since he had made it clear he had no interest in contributing to the team, and turned it on in fall ball (presumably) for the purpose of increasing his trade value.

Jaramillo is an upgrade mostly for psychological reasons, but he does get on base at a decent clip (for a catcher), and between him and Robinzon Diaz, we seem to have a couple decent options for a backup catcher. Of course, that's more than a small concern, given the injury history of Ryan Doumit. It's a minor deal, and I'm fine with it.

Of course, that will surely anger many who expect the Pirates to undo recent history by making a big splash at the Winter Meetings every year. The fact that this is the only trade executed so far will not soothe their anger, to be sure, and will only help to pour gasoline on that raging fire.

Honestly though, what more could be expected from a team that has little to offer at the major league level? There's no chance of any small-market team landing any of the big free agents (Sabathia, Teixeira, Ramirez, etc.), and when you don't want to trade what little minor league talent you have (since you just drafted them), or the fairly talented major league players you have control over for multiple years (since you'd get basically the same thing in return), the best you can do is try and sign a lesser name free agent for less than they're worth (like the Tigers did with Adam Everett) to fill a gap until you can improve at that position internally.

Of course, that doesn't make headlines, and just angers your already insane fan base. These are the reasons why I don't envy Neal Huntington. We'll see what happens tomorrow in the Rule V draft, and the free agent market over the next two months.

Congrats!

A long-standing wrong has been righted, as the BBWAA has finally opened its ranks to two of my favorite writers, Rob Neyer and Keith Law of ESPN.com, as well as Will Carroll and Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus.

The more sabermetric friendly the BBWAA gets, the better life will be for nerds like me. Congrats to Rob, Keith, Will and Christina.

Hall of Fame

1. Harold Baines

2. †Jay Bell

3. Bert Blyleven

4. †David Cone

5. Andre Dawson

6. †Ron Gant

7. †Mark Grace

8. †Rickey Henderson

9. Tommy John

10. Don Mattingly

11. Mark McGwire

12. Jack Morris

13. Dale Murphy

14. †Jesse Orosco

15. Dave Parker

16. †Dan Plesac

17. Tim Raines

18. Jim Rice

19. Lee Smith

20. Alan Trammell

21. †Greg Vaughn

22. †Mo Vaughn

23. †Matt Williams

† Denotes a first-time appearance on the ballot.

Here's what my ballot would look like:

IN:

Bert Blyleven: Much ink has been spilled about this, especially by Rich Lederer, who wrote something new just the other day. If Jim Rice gets in this year (which he probably will), then Blyleven should be in too, with a signed apology from the BBWAA. Someone said this week (I believe it was Rob Neyer) that when the post-Blyleven pitchers with less than 300 wins start going in to the Hall, it will make it even harder to justify why Blyleven is not there. I completely agree, so can we just get the guy in already?

Rickey Henderson: Joe Posnanski wrote today about this, and I completely agree, as is the usual with me and JoePo. There's no cogent argument for why Rickey should not be in the Hall of Fame.

Mark McGwire: It's well past time to come down off the soapbox. Keeping McGwire out sends the Hall of Fame down a very treacherous, hypocritical, and slippery slope.

Tim Raines: People focus more on Andre Dawson for some reason, and I feel like Rock gets left out, which is a shame, because he was one of the best players of my youth. If Blyleven is Rich Lederer's project, Raines belongs to the inimitable Tom Tango, who covered why Rock should be in the Hall of Fame from all conceivable angles, and it's clear that he belongs. One thing about baseball in the 80's that is becoming more and more clear: We didn't know what was really valuable (see Boggs, Wade). Even I was surprised to see some of these numbers.

Alan Trammell: Basically outshined by Cal Ripken Jr. for most of his career. Had a very good bat and a very good glove, and deserves more credit. Don't believe me? Look here.


OUT, with regrets:

Andre Dawson: Would make my "Hall of Very Good," and my Hall of Fame for nicknames.

Dale Murphy: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Was spoken of with reverential tones on TBS when I was a kid, but now is pretty much an afterthought.

Dave Parker and Jim Rice: Mostly because Rice getting in is the only way Parker gets considered, when Parker was in fact the better player. In my estimation, neither should go, but it's ridiculous to put Rice in when Parker is getting so much less support. I guess the Cobra should've played in the weaker league and a better pitcher's park so he could garner a few more votes.


Out, with no regrets:

Jack Morris: Never has one World Series done so much for someone's career. Please, please, please familiarize yourself with the numbers. And by the way, he was AWFUL in the 1992 postseason. No way am I supporting a pitcher with a 105 ERA+ for his career.

Baines, Bell, Cone, Gant, Grace, John, Mattingly, Orosco, Plesac, Smith, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Williams


There's my (slightly informed) opinion.

You Don't Know Jack

Any of you that read Dejan's work regularly (and really, everyone should because he does a fantastic job covering such a lousy team) ought to appreciate this post from the PBC Blog:

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2008/12/09/winter-meetings-2008-day-2.aspx

Needless to say, I have always appreciated Jack Wilson's upbeat attitude and apparent willingness to remain a Pirate for as long as possible, so this story is probably just icing on the cake.

Of course, the aforementioned Mr. Wilson is a hot topic of trade rumors at this year's Winter Meetings (I, for one, think absolutely nothing is going to happen), while all around him, supposedly interested teams, and alleged replacements wind up going other places.

First, Adam Everett was signed by the Tigers for $1 million, far less than he's worth.

Then Mark Loretta went to the Dodgers, and supposedly the Buccos never made him an offer.

Now the Twins are supposedly involved, but I sincerely doubt that the Pirates will manage to pry anything of great value from them for a shortstop who is owed a lot of money and is of advancing years.

Like I said, I think when January rolls around, Jack Wilson will still be a Pirate.

Change? We don't need no stinking change.

This is not specifically Pirates baseball related information, but there is a really interesting article up on Driveline Mechanics about two brothers who are both pitchers, and whose father developed an interesting pitching motion for the two of them that would take stress off the pitching shoulder, and place it on the bigger, stronger muscles of the back instead.

According to the post, Fritz Outman (Josh and Zach's father) studied biomechanics for 15+ years, and is publishing a book on how this all works. From what my completely untrained eye can see, it definitely looks like a lot less stress would be placed on both the pitching shoulder and elbow, which means the Pirates probably should have hired the guy to teach this delivery to Sean Burnett, Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, and various other pitchers in the minor league system.

Of course, MLB is to stubborn to try it, partly because (in my estimation) no pitching coach would want to accept the fact that someone else came up with this delivery, and then have to do a crazy thing like learn something new.

Here's a clip of an interview that Josh did with David Laurila from Baseball Prospectus referenced in the post:

DL: You grew up utilizing a unique pitching motion, which was taught to you by your father, and you changed it prior to becoming eligible for the draft. In an interview last year, you said that your old motion "wasn’t something that was projectable in the minds of Major League Baseball." Can you elaborate on that?

JO: It was just something that fell outside of the previous profile for draftability so there was a concern that it would scare people off. There are no pitching coaches who know it, or previous players who have used it, so I changed to a more conventional style to fit in better with people’s expectations of what a pitcher looks like. With a guy like Dontrelle Willis, his motion is more of a variation on a theme. Mine was its own unique theme.

DL: Phillies assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle was quoted as saying that you probably would have been drafted much lower had you not changed your motion, because people would have been afraid of the injury factor. What are your thoughts on that?

JO: I think that was an assumption made under faulty information. What I was taught actually took stress off of my arm, so there wasn’t full comprehension on how my motion worked. Using a vertical arm position freed up my rotator cuff and enabled the use of the larger pectoral and abdominal muscle groups rather than the smaller deltoids and various other shoulder muscles. It used my lats to slow my arm down rather than just the posterior deltoids, and because those are larger, stronger muscles that can withstand more force it took a large workload off of my shoulder muscles. And eliminating the leg kick in lieu of a normal walking step, I was expending less energy to get the same production from my body, while sparing my throwing arm much of the wear and tear associated with pitching.

I find it disappointing that MLB wouldn't even take a shot at letting this kid pitch with the mechanics that got him drafted in the first place. Considering how much money is spent on pitchers that ends up being a sunk cost due to shoulder and/or elbow injuries, you would think that a team or two would be willing to at least try this, given that it does seem to be based on a great deal of facts.

Pre-Thanksgiving Random Links

As we've already discussed, the much-ballyhooed Rule V Draft is swiftly approaching. This year's draft will be held on Dec. 11th, which is also my birthday, so here's hoping the Pirates find something nice for me (and us) among the eligible draftees. Some big name players have been selected in recent Rule V Drafts, including All-Stars Josh Hamilton (2006), Dan Uggla (2005), and some guy named Johan Santana (1999).

And of course, our beloved inspiration for this blog, one Roberto Clemente, was a selection of Branch Rickey's in the Rule V Draft after the 1954 season.

In that same vein, Marc Hulet over at the Baseball Analysts put together a primer on some possible pitcher selections in this year's Rule V Draft that's definitely worth reading.

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There's been an interesting back-and-forth going on over wOBA, which is the child of the guys over at The Book (specifically Tom Tango). Rob Neyer posted about it on his (now free!) blog at ESPN.com yesterday, and much discussion ensued in the comments.

I don't know enough to speak about this intelligently, so thankfully Tom Tango took the time to respond to Rob's readers and provide more information on the creation of wOBA.

I mention wOBA because it gives me an opportunity to push FanGraphs on all of you once again. My interest in this site has grown exponentially since they decided to add more and more awesome things to their already very interesting site. In addition to being the one-stop shop for WPA graphs of every game throughout the regular season and playoffs, they have a full slate of stats on both major and minor leage players, as well as all the numbers for the various non-PECOTA projection systems for 2009.

Of course, they've also added wOBA to their stable of stats. It really is a fantastic place.

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Speaking of FanGraphs, Eric Seidman released the first half of the Top 10 pitching performances of 2008 (in terms of WPA), and you might be surprised that a Pirates' starting pitcher actually made the list. One of the alarmingly few bright spots for the pitching staff this year.

Rinku and Dinesh Go to Bradenton

I don't even know where to begin.

Look, this is not a high-risk move, so I don't have much of a leg to stand on when criticizing Team Neal for signing two young pitchers from India, who are pitchers only by virtue of winning a contest in their home country. Their ascent to the major leagues is not by virtue of, you know, actually playing baseball for most of their lives, like most other players, but because they won a reality TV show. There are movies that are less ridiculous.

But whatever. They've received something like $15,000 and $20,000 dollars, so it's not like the club is spending Burnitz money on these guys. It does, however, smack of quite a bit of crazy. I guess when your organizational pitching depth is as bad as the Pirates', and when more and more teams are starting to adopt a sabermetric-friendly model for doing business, you have to start thinking more and more "outside the box." In this case, that box appears to be the Western Hemisphere. After all, Moneyball is all about exploiting market deficiencies, right? Well, I can safely say that if there is a market for unknown pitchers from India (and with a billion people, the chances are at least decent), then the Pirates have cornered it.

I will also add that their blog is unintentionally hilarious.

Rule V Roster Deadline

As some might already know (some NOT including me, because I didn't until about 10 minutes ago), the deadline for setting the 40-man roster prior to the Rule V Draft is today. Unless there is unreported news out there about anyone being added to the 40-man, it will remain at its current 35 members, who are the following.

EDIT: Of course, the PG then reports that five were added to the 40-man roster:

Pitchers (22):
Jimmy Barthmaier
Denny Bautista
T.J. Beam
Sean Burnett
Matt Capps
Jesse Chavez
Dave Davidson
Jason Davis
Zach Duke
Phil Dumatrait
Tom Gorzelanny
John Grabow
Craig Hansen
Jeff Karstens
Paul Maholm
Evan Meek
Ross Ohlendorf
Romulo Sanchez
Ian Snell
Jeff Sues
Ronald Uviedo
Tyler Yates

Catchers (5):
Raul Chavez
Robinzon Diaz
Ryan Doumit
Steve Lerud
Ronny Paulino

Infielders (8):
Pedro Alvarez
Brian Bixler
Luis Cruz
Adam LaRoche
Andy LaRoche
Freddy Sanchez
Neil Walker
Jack Wilson

Outfielders (4):
Nate McLouth
Nyjer Morgan
Brandon Moss
Steve Pearce
Jose Tabata

For some reason, I always forget that Walker was drafted in 2004, and since he was drafted out of college, that means he had to be added to the 40-man before the end of his fourth year to be protected from the Rule V Draft. The same might apply for Steve Lerud, though why Sues, Uviedo and Tabata were added is beyond me, since none of the three needed to be protected.

Considering that there will be a signing of at least one outfielder and one utility man, as well as probably some right-handed bullpen help before spring training, it's safe to assume this won't be the 40-man roster on February 15th.

Runs by Position

Interesting post from Tom Tango today about the offensive performance by decade of the various defensive positions (pitchers excluded):

Offense by Position Groups by Decade

If you're looking for a nice tidbit, the final word correlates pretty nicely with the scale of defensive difficulty:

Merging everything, since 1980s:

SS -19.6
C -16.3
2B -9.6
CF -1.5
3B +0.4
RF 10.5
LF 10.5
1B 18.4

Not Entirely as Advertised

The reports of Nate McLouth's horrible defense have been perhaps exaggerated.

As you may already know, the aforementioned McLouth was awarded one of the three NL Gold Glove awards given to outfielders. Why they don't classify the awards among LF, CF, and RF is still beyond me, but whatever. As you also may already know, Mr. McClouth put up (down?) a whopping minus-40 on John Dewan's +/- system, which was the worst among all qualifying centerfielders in major league baseball. This of course led to much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the statistically-inclined community (myself included), who felt that this was another in the long line of stupid decisions made by supposedly intelligent "baseball people" like managers and the BBWAA.

What Dewan says in the post linked above dovetails nicely with my thoughts on McLouth's defense. When I first found out that he was -40 in the plus/minus system for 2008, I thought that number seemed unexpectedly low, not because I rated McLouth's defense highly, but because I just didn't think he was that terrible. When I voted in Tom Tango's scouting report, I believe I gave McClouth about an average rating, which is slightly generous, but my bottom line is that I consider him a below-average center fielder, but not by much.

McLouth's problem (as many sensible analysts have noted), is that he does not get to as many balls as he should, whether by poor reaction off the bat, or by taking bad routes to the ball. I think that supports Dewan's analysis showing that he makes sizeable numbers of "good" and "bad" plays. To a large extent with Nate, it's feast or famine with the plays that are not considered "average." It seems that he either gets a solid read right away and makes a good play on tough ball, or he misreads it and loses the battle while trying to chase it down. Since the official scorer has no concept of outfield errors other than dropping fly balls (or so it seems), Mr. McLouth isn't punished on the score sheet for his poor performance.

The good news is that he generally knows what to do with the ball once he gets it, which keeps his errors low, and subsequently keeps his fielding percentage high, thus he gets the love from the MSM and the managers when they manage to talk about defense. What we can all hope for is that McCutcheon the Outfielder is ready very soon, so he can take over center and move Nate to left field, where he will do less damage. Until then, the Pirates will continue to give up runs in center field, despite the fact that a guy with a Gold Glove plays there.

Year in Review, 2008

2008 Pittsburgh Pirates

Actual Record: 67-95 (6th Place, NL Central, 14th of 16)
Runs Scored: 765 (9th of 16)
Runs Allowed: 884 (16th of 16)
Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (15th of 16)

Other National League Rankings (Batting):
BA: .258 (9th)
OBP: .320 (15th)
SLG%: .403 (12th)
Walks: 474 (14th)
Strikeouts: 1039 (12th)
HR: 153 (12th)
WPA/LI: -5.23 wins (14th)

Other National League Rankings (Pitching):
ERA: 5.10 (16th)
FIP: 4.84 (16th)
HR Allowed: 176 (13th)
BB Allowed: 657 (16th)
Strikeouts: 963 (15th)
WHIP: 1.57 (16th)
WPA/LI: -14.27 wins (16th)

Team Defense:
DER: .675 (15th)
BABIP: .317 (15th)


What went right: Center fielder Nate McLouth won the starting job out of spring training, and easily cemented himself as the everyday starter, eventually making it to his first All-Star game, and winning an undeserved Gold Glove. Ryan Doumit did not shake the injury bug, but when healthy, served as a solid everyday catcher and bona fide offensive threat. Adam LaRoche struggled out of the gate yet again, but managed to post a well above average .271/.341/.500 slash line, with 25 HR and 85 RBI and played solid defense.

Paul Maholm was the only starter to play above serviceable, leading the starters by a considerable margin in every category that is even moderately relevant. Matt Capps and John Grabow turned in two more than solid performances as the back-end anchors of the bullpen (when they managed to get in the game). Zach Duke didn't post an ERA over 5.00, so I guess that's a step in the right direction.

What went wrong: Everything else. The starting rotation was abysmal, by far the worst in the National League (if not all of Major League Baseball). After Maholm, the odds were at least 2-1 that the starting pitcher would see the fifth inning of any given game. The pitchers put far too many men on base and put far too many balls in play, due in large part to the fact that they couldn't strike anyone out. The already shaky bullpen was overmatched all year, and devolved into a revolving door for anyone from Indianapolis who could pick up a baseball. Better starting pitching and a bolstered bullpen have to be priorities 1 and 2 for Neal Huntington this offseason, and we are most likely seeing that already with the trading of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady for a bunch of pitchers, Andy LaRoche, and Jose Tabata.

Team defense was basically awful, despite the lofty reputations of Jack Wilson (5th among SS in +/-) and Adam LaRoche (9th in RZR among NL 1B, clearly not as good as he supposedly used to be), and the fact that Nate McLouth managed to hoodwink the BBWAA into giving him a Gold Glove, in defiance of his -40 rating among ALL center fielders in baseball, by far the worst rating among ALL outfielders. What that means is that McClouth made 40 less plays than the average centerfielder. The argument against this is that he only made one error all year, and though that's great, you can't make errors on the balls in play that you never get to. The average center fielder made 40 more plays than Nate McClouth over the same number of games, but Nate McClouth managed to get a Gold Glove. I'm a Pirate fan, and I can't even begin to come up with a cogent defense of that. The BBWAA is perhaps the most inept and stubborn group of people ever.

The lone bright spot for the Buccos was perhaps the offense, but that faded quickly with the trades of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. I spoke at length about those trades at the time, so I won't regurgitate that here. I think both were necessary and (at least right now), well executed. Bay will continue to play well in Boston, and Nady will have another year in New York to determine whether or not he really is an everyday player, but the Pirates have neither the resources nor the inclination to attempt to afford two aging outfielders who are never going to be superstars.

For all the talk about the patience the Pirates showed at the plate, as usual, the stats do not bear that out. They drew a whopping 11 more walks (474 from 463), struck out 2% less (18.5% from 20.4%), which isn't bad, but they swung at more pitches out of the zone (25.35% up from 24.91%), and less pitches in the zone (62.55% down from 66.24%). They did make more contact on both pitches in the zone (89.59% up from 88.07%) and pitches out of the zone (66.09% up from 60.22%), but their BABIP was down to .293 in 2008 from .307 in 2007. That might just be bad luck, but it also might be that they swung at worse pitches. Either way, they were once again in the bottom half in the offensive rankings, due in no small part to John Russell's insistence on putting the struggling Freddy Sanchez, he of the .271/.298/.371 slash line (a freaking .669 OPS!!!) close to the top of the lineup for as many games as possible.

What's Next?:
1. Stabilize the starting rotation. This is why Bay and Nady were traded for several starting pitchers. Ian Snell has to decide whether or not he can be a real starter, and Zach Duke needs to build on a non-disastrous 2008 campaign to regain some more of the mojo he had as a rookie. Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf will be ready to push them right at the start of spring training. Daniel McCutcheon is probably bound for Indianapolis, but he won't be waiting too long before getting a shot. Can Phil Dumatrait produce anything more than lots of fly balls? Pressing issues abound.
2. Bolster the bullpen. This will most likely be the only area of free agency in which the front office is active, since they cannot afford the free agent starters out there, and as Billy Beane has shown us all, good specialty relievers can be found at relatively cheap prices.
3. Hope Sanchez and Andy LaRoche contribute something above replacement level offensively, that McLouth and Doumit produce something close to their 2008 numbers, and that Adam LaRoche somehow avoids a spring swoon like every other year.
4. Pray, pray, and pray that Andrew McCutcheon is ready early in 2009 so that McLouth can move to left and flash his Gold Glove defense at a non-premium position.
5. Hope for one more decent year offensively, and another above-average defensive year from Jack Wilson.
6. Somehow get average play from a Brandon Moss/Jason Michaels (if he's resigned)/Random Guy outfield tandem.

I may be crazy in thinking that the Pirates can contend as early as this year or 2010, but I do think it's possible. The future success of the Brewers is murky at best, but the Cubs will be a force, as will the Cardinals as long as their first baseman still breathes. It's a tough climb, but at least I feel that we managed to get a hold of some hiking boots for the journey.

Our revels now have ended.

Well, congrats to the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, their fans, and the great City of Philadelphia itself, on their defeat of the American League champion Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 Monday Tuesday Wednesday night, by a score of 4-3, thus securing the franchise's second World Series Championship, their first since 1980, and the first major sports championship for any Philadelphia team since 1983. The Phiting Phills went 11-3 in the playoffs, losing just one game to the Brewers, Dodgers, and Rays, respectively. An impressive and admirable run, to be sure.

There are many of us who find it hard rooting for the Mets and Phillies, thanks to those years the Buccos spent in the NL East, but I found it much easier this time around. Perhaps it's because I do enjoy the city of Philadelphia, but I think it's more likely that it aggravated me that the Rays were so close to winning the World Series only ten years into their existence. Also, any city with teams in every major sport deserves to win one every so often, and Philly had been waiting 25 years to celebrate. I'm sure they'll keep booing everything and everyone, and they'll maintain their generally miserable personalities as sports fans (third only to Boston and New York), but I'm alright with Southeastern PA getting some time to celebrate.

(Those of you who are interested can check out Deadspin for various quotes and stories about the goings-on in and around Philadelphia after last night's victory. Always good times.)

The sabermetric community (and some in the baseball community at large) have been complaining about the managing of Joe Maddon and Charlie Manuel throughout the World Series, and rightfully so. Among other things, letting J.P. Howell bat in the waning innings of an elimination game just to let him pitch to one bater (ONE BATTER!) in the bottom half of the inning, and he didn't even get the platoon advantage! That's not to excuse Charlie Manuel's consistent use of Pedro Feliz against right-handers late in the game (or anytime, really) throughout the playoffs. Just awful managing. I could write about this for days.

Finally, in other Pirate-related news, I did something completely irrational and probably incredibly misguided today. That's right, I put down a deposit for a partial season ticket to see your Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in 2009. I don't know if it's because I just love baseball THAT much, or I just hate myself THAT much, but now that I'm back in Columbus I'll be taking in at least 20 games next season. Shoot me now.

Well, that's depressing.

There are four teams that have come into existence since the last time our beloved Pittsburgh Pirates visited the postseason: The Florida Marlins (1993), The Colorado Rockies (1993), The Arizona Diamondbacks (1998), and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1998).

As of last night, all four of those teams have now won at least one league pennant since the last time the Pirates played in the postseason.

God, this team really is pretty awful.

Sad, Sad World

As this list notes, your Pittsburgh Pirates, with the exception of the Texas Rangers, are the not only the proud co-owners of the record for consecutive losing seasons, but they are also the team to have gone the longest without winning a playoff series.

That series, of course, was the 1979 World Series, which happened roughly a year before I was born. That's right, I'm approaching 30 and the Pirates haven't won a playoff series in my entire lifetime. Hard to believe.

(h/t to Tom Tango over at The Book for the link.)

On a side note, my apologies for going MIA for the better part of two months. I've been working on relocating to the Columbus area and continuing my adventures in business travel, but we'll be back up and running in the very near future. Thanks to my three readers for your immense patience.

History in the Making

Oddly appropriate, isn't it, that the 82nd loss of the season, securing the record-tying 16th losing season in a row for the Pittsburgh Pirates, comes on the same day that the Steelers opened their season?

The Perfect Storm

Brian Cartwright, who writes over at Statistically Speaking, has improved on Tom Tango's Marcel projection system, thanks to a conversation about Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and the Devil Rays' prospect Reid Brignac, who was one of the players the Pirates were probably seeking in trade negotiations with the Rays.

Cartwright contended that Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss projected to be more productive offensively than Brignac, and thus he goes on to take TangoTiger's Marcel projections to the next level.

It's heady stuff, but really interesting for those that have an eye on what kind of sabermetric tools the Buccos' front office is most likely using to evaluate players.

Poetry in Motion

The charts in this article put together by Dave Studeman over at The Hardball Times is probably the coolest thing that I've seen in the last few weeks.

Take a look at the National League chart. That little blue dot you see bouncing around the bottom of the graph as it goes from 1997 (the Freak Show year) through 2007 is a certain Pittsburgh team. And no, that's not a good thing.

Who Made Coup?

Jim Callis of Baseball America took a look at the draft class post-signing, and came up with 5 draft "coups" for the first ten rounds (1-10), and another five for the second ten (11-20). Your Pittsburgh Pirates showed up not once, but twice. This is the world we live in? (h/t to PBC Blog for the link.)

4. Robbie Grossman, OF, Pirates (sixth round, $1 million, No. 49 on BA Top 200)
Athletic switch-hitter adds to Pittsburgh's burgeoning outfield talent.

3. Quinton Miller, RHP, Pirates (20th round, $900,000, No. 158 on BA Top 200)
He shows flashes of a low-90s fastball, plus slider and average changeup.

If memory serves, Miller is the guy that was lured away from North Carolina (surely by the $900,000 among other things), and Grossman was the highly touted high schooler who fell to the Pirates in the sixth round because everyone thought he was going to college (at the University of Texas, I think). Perhaps money can actually buy love?

On a side note, ShysterBall (who lives in my hometown of Columbus, OH) is reconsidering his opinion of PNC Park after reading a New York columnist's review following the Mets-Buccos series.

Morgan Promoted

You'd like the circumstances to be better, but OF Nyjer Morgan was promoted from Indianapolis today to take the roster spot of Doug Mientkiewicz, who was placed on the bereavement list because his wife, Jodi, is undergoing heart surgery at Allegheny General.

Mientkiewicz is eligible to come off the list on Friday. As someone who has had several family members have major heart surgery in the Pittsburgh area (also at Allegheny General), I hope for a speedy recovery for Mrs. Mientkiewicz.

In happier news, the club avoided the sweep thanks to Steven Pearce, who hit a bases loaded single in the eighth to break a 2-2 tie on the way to a 5-2 win over the Mets. Paul Maholm pitched well again, but the win went to Sean Burnett, his first since 2004, after he bailed out Tyler Yates with two out and the bases loaded in the top of the eighth.

Third baseman LaRoche the Lesser went 2-3 with a walk, 2 R and 2 RBI, and John Grabow picked up his fourth save.

Uncle Charlie

Derek Carty at the always relevant Hardball Times has a great article up on perhaps my favorite pitch, the curveball.

I'm obligated to link to anything that uses pitch f/x since I enjoy it so much, so this is today's portion. If you ever want to explore the pitch f/x world as it applies to active major leaguers, I highly recommend the tool that Josh Kalk put together: Go Here.

Say Hey, Pedro.

The long, national nightmare is over: Pedro Alvarez is your newest Pittsburgh Pirate.

There's some really nice insight from Dejan in that post, and really, I can't say enough good things about the job that guy does on a day to day basis. He makes the Trib guys look like amateurs by comparison.

To begin, I'm willing to say that this might just signify the end of the low-spending Pirates.

To wit:

Alvarez's bonus, part of a minor league contract, far exceeded the $4 million the Pirates paid to pitcher Bryan Bullington, No. 1 overall in 2001. More striking, it was part of total spending on this 32-player draft class that approached $10 million, a figure made possible when owner Bob Nutting early last month authorized a significant increase. That total included $8,166,000 on players in the top 10 rounds and an additional $900,000 yesterday to lure the 20th-round pick, pitcher Quinton Miller.

That not only was a record for the Pirates, but also was roughly $2 million more than any major league team spent on the draft last season. The high last season was the New York Yankees' $7,655,000.

The Pirates spent more money in the draft than anyone else?!?! Be still, my heart. And even better, check this out:

The Pirates, according to one person intimately familiar with those talks, never budged off their number, and Boras' call came at 11:58 to accept.

Only certain people know whether or not that's true, but it's good to hear at least that senior management set a (by all accounts reasonable) number, stuck to it, and Super Agent Scott Boras saw the logic in that. Say what you want about Boras, but the guy is a great agent who knows how to take care of his clients, and he never passes on a good deal.

And perhaps the best quote of all:

"Bob Nutting has made a commitment to provide the club with the tools and resources necessary to return the Pirates to the greatness that this organization has achieved so often in its rich history," Coonelly said. "He has further demonstrated that commitment by his active involvement throughout this process and by providing us with the significant dollars necessary to sign Pedro Alvarez. We had to reach to sign Pedro and Bob was fully supportive of our decision."

The whole scene was a far cry from last year, when former general manager Dave Littlefield and his scouts bypassed a Boras client - Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters - and drafted reliever Danny Moskos fourth overall, drawing outrage from the public. The bulk of that was aimed at Nutting, but multiple accounts since then support the notion that it was a baseball decision rather than a financial one, despite what now has become apparent is a great gap between the two prospects in terms of talent.

There are no chimeras here, no chicanery, no ifs, ands, or buts about it: The Nuttings put up the money to fund the largest spending on a draft class in this organization's history. Of course, the criticism of them as low-spending cheapskates will come again next season if the major league roster doesn't change, simply because the players they have now don't cost much money. That of course isn't bad when you produce, but when it's been 16 seasons...

Anyway, not to go completely overboard, but this is a great signal that the changing of the guard is actually something different this time around. Pedro Alvarez was perhaps the best talent in the draft, and is easily the best player they've drafted since Andrew McCutcheon, and Bob Nutting and Frank Coonelly made sure that he was brought into the fold. Who are these Pirates? I'm not familiar with these kind of moves.

What's perhaps most interesting is how Coonelly had little regard for the slotting system that he tried to enforce while working for the Commissioner's office. Many were concerned that he would be unwilling to put up the necessary cash to sign talented draft picks for fear of going "over slot value," but when you give the 20th round pick almost a million dollars, that puts the speculation to bed, so to speak.

All in all, this is a great day to be a Pirate fan. I'm on my way to Houston to see the Astros play the Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park, but I'll be back tomorrow with more. Go Pedro!

Bayes' Theorem and Andy LaRoche

Victor Wang over at The Hardball Times put together a great article today on Bayes' Theorem and applied it to Pirates' third baseman Andy LaRoche.

There's a lot in there that's pretty difficult to completely understand, so I won't try and pick apart all the gory details, but you should be relieved to read this part:

So given LaRoche’s minor league track record, he has a high probability of becoming an everyday player but a low chance of being a star. While this type of prospect might not seem too valuable, an everyday player cost controlled for six years is immensely valuable as Laroche’s surplus value using this Bayesian analysis coming into 2008 was $40 million. Making some basic assumptions about what Laroche could be expected to be paid, PECOTA had Laroche worth around $50 million in surplus value coming into 2008. So it’s good to see that the Bayesian system has a similar rating with PECOTA.

The CW doesn't like it when you trade a player of Jason Bay's caliber for four players, and none of them turn out to be super-stars, but the CW also doesn't understand how valuable it is to have productive, cheap, major league players. It's how Oakland in particular has been successful over the last ten years, despite not having a lot of (if any) marquee players.

More to come on the surprise demotion of another third baseman, Jose Bautista.

Draft Deadline Approacheth.

Buster Olney took a break from writing about the Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs/Angels to chime in on the ongoing Pedro Alvarez negotiations (ESPN Insider).

He says:

Does it make sense to walk away from guaranteed millions to play independent league ball or return to college for another year, while assuming the risk of injury or diminished performance (see Matt Harrington) will damage your value?

I just don't see it. I hope Alvarez signs.

As much as I'd love to remain as optimistic as Buster (and others), I'm still 50-50 at best on whether or not a deal actually gets done. It's absolutely the right thing to do to avoid paying ridiculous amounts of money to Mr. Alvarez and his agent (the Dread Pirate Boras), and I won't necessarily fault Frank Coonnelly and/or Neal Huntington for walking away from a bad deal, but they need to find a way to sign this guy, too.

In other draft pick news, Tanner Scheppers, the second round pick out of Fresno State who is recovering from a shoulder injury, was at PNC Park yesterday to throw 25 pitches for assembled dignitaries in order to show his relative health and perhaps sign a deal before midnight Friday.

Nothing really surprising there, except this towards the middle:

Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson - the National League's top double play tandem - sat out another game yesterday.

...(record scratch)...

I'm not trying to disparage my own team (most of the time), but in what universe, exactly, are Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson the National League's best double-play tandem? Offensively, defensively, or otherwise? Offensively, especially given Sanchez's performance this year, just about everyone is better, especially Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, but also reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and some guy named Chase Utley. Defensively, Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis are probably better, as are Troy Tulowitzki and whoever is playing second base that day. That's just off the top of my head.

Screw it, just take a look at the numbers (h/t to Baseball-Reference.com, and Baseball Prospectus, as always):

Offense:

Freddy Sanchez: .249/.271/.347, 66 OPS+ (!!!!) among NL second basemen. -11.1 VORP, by far the worst among NL second basemen. That's "terrible, god-awful, miserable, never should be in the top of the lineup, or the lineup at all" bad.

Jack Wilson: .271/.319/.331, 85 OPS+ among NL shortstops. 1.7 VORP, meaning he's played just above replacement level when he's played at all. The only consolation is that Brian Bixler (-6.9 VORP) and Luis Rivas (-3.3 VORP) have actually played worse.

Defense:

Freddy Sanchez: He's still got well above average range for a second baseman, as his range factor indicates (5.21 RF9 vs. 4.82 LgRF9), and he's only made 7 errors, but his FRAR (fielding runs above replacement) for the season is at 0, and his FRAA (fielding runs above average) is at -21. That speaks for itself.

Jack Wilson: J-Dub also has above average range (5.10 RF9 vs. 4.43 LgRF9), but his FRAR is only at 9, and his FRAA is a stunning 0. Again, when he's played this year, it's been at replacement level. It boggles my mind that people don't understand why teams aren't throwing the Pirates three good prospects for this guy.

Feel free to email the Trib and let them know how ridiculous this homerism looks to even mildly intelligent people.

Craig Hansen and Pitch f/x

David Golebiewski, a man with a truly Pittsburgh-esque name and a Duquesne student, wrote a piece for Driveline Mechanics (an extremely interesting pitching blog) where he took a look at the Pitch f/x data for Pirates' reliever Craig Hansen to perhaps determine whether or not Mr. Hansen would be as successful as the Red Sox hoped when they drafted him.

His conclusions aren't particularly pretty, but not entirely hopeless either. He finds that basically:

1. Hansen has below-average movement on his fastball, which gets hit hard despite an average speed of 95 MPH, particularly by left-handers.

2. His sometimes devastating slider is just that: crippling at times, hanging at others.

3. He might want to throw his changeup more often, particularly to left-handed batters, simply to give them something else to think about in the hopes of reducing that .315/.401/.476 line against lefties.

Given that he wasn't the centerpiece of the Jason Bay trade, I'm comfortable agreeing with David's conclusion that the chances for Hansen living up to his high potential are far less than 50-50. Let's hope at least that he can become a mostly reliable middle reliever to set the table for Matt Capps.

Ryan "The Real Deal" Doumit

Eric Seidman writing at FanGraphs has an entry up today on perhaps the second-best offensive catcher in the NL, our own Ryan Doumit.

Seidman concludes (as would any reasonable person) that Doumit is due for a regression to the mean, but only a slight one at this point, which will probably leave him with 18 HR and an .866 OPS for his final season stats.

Considering he spent another chunk of time on the DL this year, that's nothing to sneeze at. It's no wonder the beat reporters have been including talk of the club signing Doumit to an extension in the off-season, along with teen hearthrob Nate McClouth.

Sea Change

Anyone wondering whether or not Neal Huntington knows what he's doing will be encouraged by the last line from Dejan's game story today:

The Pirates' 455 walks are the most in the National League, third-most in Major League Baseball.

Get on base, and the runs will come. Someone owes hitting coach Don Long a drink or fifty after this season is over. The job he has done with the offense this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Now, if pitching coach Jeff Andrews could turn some of the terrible starting pitching around, we might actually have a real baseball team on our hands.

For now, I'll take what I can get. Things are getting better, right? .....Right?

Neyer Weighs In

It's a poorly kept secret that Rob Neyer is one of my favorite baseball writers, given that he is one of the few at ESPN who embrace the statistical side of baseball with both zest and vigor. I was hoping that he would write more at length about both deals, but he gave us some words today regarding the Bay/Ramirez trade. (ESPN Insider required)

To wit:

I'll note a slight sea change here; it's not until recently that a GM would publicly credit statistical analysts. In fact, many GMs didn't even want the
public to know they talked to statistical analysts at all.

I wasn't thrilled with the Xavier Nady deal, from the Pirates' perspective. Jose Tabata's star seems to have fallen (though of course he's still young).

But I love the Jason Bay deal. When you trade a great (or near-great)player, you have to get back a player who's got a real chance of being great. In Andy LaRoche, the Pirates got that player. The Pirates could have kept Jason Bay for the rest of this season and all of next season at a reasonable price. After that he'd have been gone as a free agent. They'll control LaRoche's contract through 2013, and if you could assign a dollar value to Bay through 2009 and LaRoche through 2013, LaRoche would come out way ahead.

The Pirates also picked up Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen, who both have non-zero chances of becoming useful major leaguers for at least a few years. And Bryan Morris, while still a long ways from the majors, immediately becomes one of the Pirates' top pitching prospects. All of whom make the package the Pirates got for Bay significantly more valuable than what the Rays were supposedly offering.

Neal Huntington still has plenty of work to do. But he's on the right
track.

Amen to that.

The Wizard

Great article from JoePo today on Greg Maddux, the only Brave from my lifetime besides John Smoltz that I've ever liked.

I'm on the road in the greater Ohio Valley this week, and I might visit the Great American Ballpark this weekend, since I've never been there. Exciting times. I'll do my best to say something worthwhile in the near future.

Also, much love to Xavier Nady, who had 6 RBI in the Yankee's 14-9 win over the Angels yesterday.

Stop, Drop, KABOOM.

Well, with all the trade talk and speculation swirling around Jason Bay since, what, last September, did anyone see the Dodgers mentioned?

Yeah, me neither, but it has happened. The team site and others are reporting that Pirates LF Jason Bay was traded to the Red Sox in a three-team deal with the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Red Sox sent MannyBManny to the Dodgers, and pitcher Craig Hansen and outfielder Brandon Moss to the Buccos, while the Dodgers sent pitching prospect Bryan Morris and third baseman Andy LaRoche to the Pirates to complete the deal.

I'd say the Red Sox come out about even in this deal, while the Dodgers unload a guy they should have been playing but weren't, and a high ceiling prospect, in order to jam up their already crowded outfield, which includes two overpaid, old center fielders. So, Joe Torre gets to decide who will play the three spots between Andre Either/Matt Kemp/MannyBManny/Andruw Jones/Juan Pierre. Good thing he's not still in New York.

The Dodgers are trying to make a run, and that's fine, but god only knows why they continue to jam up their major league outfield. The Red Sox are screwed with their fans unless A.) Bay plays very well, not just well, but very well, and/or B.) They win the World Series. Considering that Bay has never had to face intense media scrutiny, I'm interested to see how his year and a half in Boston plays out.

My favorite part of this is that Neal Huntington is showing that he has the brass to send away a "franchise" player, and blow this thing up for younger talent if he thinks it's the right thing to do. Instead of signing him to a long-term deal (like Cam Bonifay), or trading him for pennies on the dollar (like Dave Littlefield), Mr. Huntington has done well (by my humble estimation) in his first trip through the trading deadline.

Though I enjoyed Jason Bay's work for most of his career with the Pirates, I will have to admit that he always left me waiting for him to take the next step and become an elite player, mostly because the Pirates hadn't had one since (pre-PE) Barry Bonds. His most similar batter by age is Geoff Jenkins (974), which sounds about right. Jim Edmonds and J.D. Drew are in there too at lower numbers (remember defense isn't considered), and they say just what the numbers should say about Bay: he's a very productive major leaguer with good power who will produce All-Star seasons in his prime. Now that his prime is ending, it was the right time to let him go. He's wanted to play for a winner for years, and so I wish him the best in Boston. You can bet that if the Devil Rays don't make the playoffs, I'll sheepishly root for the Sox this year on account of Mr. Bay.

We'll tackle the specifics of the players acquired later, but for now, I'm quite happy with four young quality prospects in exchange for one and a half years of Jason Bay at age 29 and 30. Is something wrong with me that I'm actually enjoying the trade deadline for once?

Bay and Grabow Traded?

Baseball Prospectus is reporting that a three-way trade between the Marlins, Red Sox, and your Pittsburgh Pirates that is currently pending Commissioner Selig's approval will send Jason Bay and John Grabow to the Red Sox in return for 24-year-old Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida and three prospects, two from the Red Sox, and one from the Marlins. Mercurial outfielder MannyBManny goes to the Marlins along with a Red Sox prospect, and some money to cover his remaining salary.

Obviously a lot depends on who the prospects are, but at least up front, that sounds like reasonable return for the affordable Bay, who is under team control through 2009, and the reliable (if overworked) Grabow, who is immediately a bona fide LOOGY for the Sox.

The difference between MannyBManny and Bay is not that large (at least this season), and Grabow gives them much needed left-handed help, but if I'm Theo, I'm not sure I pull the trigger on this deal. It seems more likely that this is the kind of trade that falls apart at the last minute, and the Sox go "Gee Manny, we tried, I guess we just have to finish the season together," while they make a run at the World Series. Then in the off-season, they don't pick up Manny's option, and hope they can otherwise swing a deal for Bay or Matt Holliday, or someone like that who didn't get traded by tomorrow. Then again, Theo makes a ton of money and has a legion of female admirers, while I write a Pirates blog that no one reads. Something tells me his decision-making skills might be better than mine.

Personally, I've never disliked the Marlins (though I hate looking at their stadium), so it will be interesting to see what they can do with MannyBManny in that spacious outfield. That would make at least a third of their defense (the two Ramirez boys and Dan Uggla) comprised of guys who have deplorable skills with the glove. Seeing MannyBManny running around in left at Pro Player Field at Dolphins Stadium will be interesting to say the least.

We'll wait and see, I guess.

Also: The Baseball America prospects blog has a brief story about Ryan Tucker, the Marlins' AA player who's been jerked around all night with all the impending trade talk.

More Self Service

Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus wrote an article for SI which (in part) reviewed the Nady/Marte trade from a much more reasonable perspective.

BP has Marte's expected wins at 3.149 for 2008. Assuming he adds one more (which is generous) this year, and they pick up the option for 2009 at the same rate, that means he gives the Yankees approximately five wins between now and the end of his contract.

BP has Nady's WARP3 (which includes defense) at 8.8 wins for 2008, and assuming he adds one more, and keeps the same production in 2009 (which he won't, but whatever), that means he gives the Yankees approximately 11 wins between now and free agency.

That makes 16 wins (generously) before Nady and Marte hit the open market after next season, in exchange for a potential phenom in Tabata who is under at least six years of team control, and two to three major league or close to major league pitchers who will be in the organization until at least 2011.

Anyone care to speculate on the VORP involved there? I guarantee you it's greater than 16 wins between now and next September.

Self Service

I think it's fair to say that most of the feedback regarding the Nady/Marte trade has been negative towards the return that the Pirates received. As I said over the weekend, I think that's misguided, considering the Bucs traded guys who had some short-term value for team-controlled guys with considerably more long-term value, among other reasons.

Well, it seems that I am not alone in that thinking, thankfully:

First, Peter Bendix of Behind the Box Score takes a look at Nady's production against right-handed pitching, which is up this year from his career averages, and concludes that it is unlikely that Xavier suddenly figured out how to hit righties at 29. To be fair, that's not what the Yankees wanted him for, and he still has value for his high numbers against lefties.

Secondly, the aforementiond Mr. Bendix gives a more general view of the Pirates' return on this trade, and has favorable things to say about the deal, namely:

Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte are luxuries, nice to have if you can afford them but certainly not core players. As such, they are unlikely to bring in any top flight talent along the lines of a Matt LaPorta. The Pirates are in the position where they need quantity almost as much as they need quality, and they received both in this deal. While none of the pitchers are likely to be as good as a Phil Hughes or even an Ian Kennedy, we are talking about three pitchers with an excellent chance of helping a major league roster in each of the next six years; not to mention the fact that McCutchen and Ohlendorf could prove to be above-league-average pieces. Furthermore, despite his problems this year, Jose Tabata is still only 19 years old and thus has plenty of time to figure it out (both on and off the field).

This article from, of all places, The New York Post, includes a telling quote from "an AL executive" (Mark Shapiro, perhaps?) who said the following:

"For Pittsburgh, it's not a great trade talent-wise, but I like what it represents...A lot rides on Tabata, who is a tool shed. Although there are concerns about his health, power and perhaps his makeup, he has the potential to be an impact player at a premium position by the time the Pirates should be competing again. Although not perfect because Ohlendorf is a middle man - maybe better in the NL - and the two other guys are long shots, it is precisely the type of deal the Pirates should be making: That is, one that exchanges impending free agents for potentially premier talent that is more suited to their time horizon. It is also the type of deal that the Pittsburgh club had not been making in recent years, despite it being in its best interest."

Lastly, Fan Graphs chimed in over the weekend with an entry that basically says the percentages point to 2008 Nady looking more like 2007 Nady in the second half of this season. Again, not that there's anything wrong with that.

This morning I actually read someone compare this trade to the Jason Schmidt and Aramis Ramirez deals, which is absolutely ridiculous. Those deals were (impending) salary dumps, where the Bucs got NOTHING in return, and this deal is nowhere close to that level of futility. To buy low on a high-risk, high-reward prospect and get three starting pitchers who can at least help the major league club in the very near future is at the very least decent return for a rental LOOGY and a guy who would be a platoon outfielder on any team other than the Pirates.

As you can tell, I'm frustrated by all this. The notion that the Pirates get screwed on these deals every year by the smarter, richer big market teams is blinding people from seeing that this actually was a good deal for the Bucs. It was a good deal for the Yankees too, but the MSM needs to declare a "winner" and a "loser" so Skip Bayless has something to freak out about on whatever they call Cold Pizza now.

Not that we ever really did, but can we get back to talking baseball and making use of common sense instead of overreacting to everything? It's apparently not likely.

Happy Trails

"It's been a challenging process, I've never seen young prospects have greater value."

- Pirates GM Neal Huntington

What bothers me the most about the conventional wisdom regarding the Nady/Marte trade is that very few people who supposedly have a strong interest in baseball seem to have missed the market trend that is placing a historically high value on high-ceiling young talent. The CW about this trade is that, at the very least, the Pirates did not get enough return on their "two best" trade chips, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. First of all, according to this market, pending the signing of Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates' best trade chip is probably Andrew McCutchen. He would certainly net the highest return. After that, it probably starts with Jason Bay and progresses through several others (including Nate McClouth) before getting to Nady and Marte.

Secondly, this quote from the recent Trib article tells you all you need to know about the trade:

During yesterday's Yankees-Red Sox broadcast, Fox baseball analyst Tim McCarver called it "a steal" for New York. But other pundits disagree.

If Tim McCarver is on one side, you want to be on the other. That's all I have to say about that.

My basic analysis of this trade is that it was a fair exchange for market value, considering what the Pirates gave up and what the Yankees had to offer. Apparently for the local fans and the ESPN bobbleheads to think a trade is successful, Mr. Huntington is going to have to rob someone blind, and that's not going to happen with Brian Cashman. That's why we keep Ed Wade around.

Tabata is really the linch pin in the whole deal. He's an enigmatic 19-year-old already playing at the AA level, though his numbers this year have been less than stellar. Supposedly he has middle of the order power potential, though he hasn't yet shown it, considering he's 19 and all. Ohlendorf is just the type of pitcher we supposedly need, a big hard-throwing righty with a mid-90s fastball and good sinking stuff. Karstens and McCutchen the Lesser, despite what anyone else says, are an improvement over the John Van Benschotens, Ty Taubenheims, Yoslan Herreras and Jimmy Barthmaiers of the world.

We'll take a look at the stats tomorrow, but for now I don't think this trade looks nearly as bad as most have made it out to be. Nady is in his Age 29 season and having what will be the best year of his career. The 33-year-old Marte is a LOOGY on a decent team, and always will be (not that there's anything wrong with that). He's also a free agent at the end of the year who will probably become compensatory picks. The Yankees were not going to give up Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, or Austin Jackson for these two guys, not in this market.

In the end, Neal Huntington did exactly what he said he was going to do, which was take the expendable parts of the major league roster and turn it into minor league depth, particularly pitching. It was what Dave Littlefield could never do, so I'll at least give him credit for that.

Marte and Nady Traded

According to the team website, the club has agreed to trade outfielder Xavier Nady and relief pitcher Damaso Marte to an undisclosed team, perhaps together, perhaps separately. Details on the team(s) and player(s) involved are not yet available, but there is rampant speculation that the Yankees are involved. I guess we'll see what happens.

Who's looking forward to some trade analysis in this space tomorrow? This guy.

On the Move

The "stars" of your Pittsburgh Pirates aren't the only ones preoccupied with moving trucks these days. Your humble author has been in the process as well for the last couple weeks, hence the lack of recent activity in this space. As things begin to settle for me, and as the hot stove leading up to the 7/31 trade deadline gets warmer, hopefully there will be some more activity here.

For now, I bring you these:

Dejan says that Jack Wilson has U-Haul on speed dial, further advancing the "no one is safe" refrain that we've heard from Neal Huntington's crew since their arrival. Given that the best option is the as yet unproven Brian Bixler, and that Wilson is reasonably priced for his performance, if he maintains it through the remainder of his contract, I'd imagine the asking price is somewhat high.

Ed Price from The Newark Star-Ledger reports that the Yankees are stepping up their chase of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Bay and Johnny Damon could split time in left field seeing who can make the slowest throw to home plate. As weak as Bay's arm is some days, I think Damon has him beat. One of my favorite lines about Johnny Damon when he was with the Red Sox was "Johnny Damon: Looks like Jesus, throws like Mary."

If you asked me (and let's assume you did), here's my "most likely to be traded" list (from most to least likely):

1. Xavier Nady: Neal plays it smart and sells high. He'll be hurt again in three weeks, and this will be the best season of his career. One more year before free agency should bring a decent return.

2. John Grabow: Overused or not, he's only 30 and has another arbitration year in 2009. The heavy hitters are short on proven lefty relief, and he could net a nicer return than Marte.

3. Damaso Marte: We'll see what happens. It's a Harvey Dent coin flip at this point.

4. Jack Wilson: Rivas and Gomez can't play short, Bixler's not there. Jumpin' Jack Flash goes and losing season number 16 is all but guaranteed.

5. Jason Bay: The one real All-Star on this team. Sending Bay off for pitching prospects a year and a half before he hits free agency will alienate a ton of the fan base, even if it's the smart thing to do. This is the official throwing in of the towel for this season, as well as 2009.

Let the games begin.

The Real All-Stars

The man they call Pizza Cutter over at the great blog Statistically Speaking has an entry up this morning on who he thinks the real All-Stars should be. Now granted, he uses a different selection criteria than the current system, so the results are noticeably different, but not surprisingly, his system favors the players whose performance dictates they should play in the Mid-Summer Classic.

For those of you who have not yet read the article, I'll spoil the fun. Not only do the Pirates have more than one representative, they actually have three. Congrats to the "real" All-Stars: Nate McClouth, Jason Bay, and...Ryan Doumit. Sorry, Mr. Nady, but that NL outfield is just a little too crowded, since this team actually has to include Pat Burrell. (And no, Alfonso Soriano and Fukudome did not make the cut this time.)

Trade Winds

From mlbtraderumors.com:

SI.com's Tom Heyman is reporting that OF Jason Bay is drawing interest from two NL teams (The D-Backs and Cardinals) in addition to the usual suspects (The Devil Rays and Mets). The article mentions similar interest in Xavier Nady.

The part that I thought was interesting was the prospects that were mentioned as the Pirates' targets in supposed deals with Arizona and St. Louis: Arizona 2B Emilio Bonaficio and STL CF Colby Rasmus, considered elite prospects and perhaps the best in each of those respective farm systems.

Given the struggles of one Frederick Sanchez at second this year, and the current administration's continuing emphasis on building organizational depth, I can see why Bonaficio's name would get mentioned; that trade would be more than defensible. But Rasmus? The Pirates' best prospect is, far and away, Andrew McCutchen, who is already the CF at AAA, and is universally expected to be in the big leagues absolutely no later than the start of the 2010 season. Rasmus is already at AAA and projects to be very similar to McCutchen, with perhaps a stronger arm (and an earlier arrival date), but basically the same skill set. I guess you could trade both Bay and Nady, move McClouth to RF, and play Cutch and Rasmus in LF and CF in whatever arrangement you'd prefer. I would think that given the dearth of pitching depth throughout this organization, the top targets for trading Bay and Nady, who play at perhaps the only positions where there is at least a little depth, would be more than one or two quality pitching prospects. I guess we'll see.

Also from The Detroit Free Press, there are the usual rumors about Damaso Marte and John Grabow for this time of year. Given Capps' injury, I think it's increasingly likely that Marte finishes the season and turns himself into compensation picks when he signs with the Red Sox (who are DYING for left-handed relief) after the season. This is the part where I play sportswriter and say "of course, he could also be traded soon if someone makes the right offer," so I can say basically nothing and take credit for being right later.

Keep those brooms in the closet.

FanGraphs is one of my favorite baseball sites to visit everyday, mostly because it's perhaps the most informative AND aesthetically pleasing sabermetric site out there. You can even export their leaderboards to Excel files and adjust them at your leisure. Also, it's completely free. So, if you want to know that Jason Bay is third among NL OF in WPA (Win Probability Added), and that Nate McClouth and Xavier Nady are fifth and sixth, respectively, FanGraphs is the place for you. And yes, that means that no outfield in baseball has done more to help its team win games than the starting outfield of your Pittsburgh Pirates. Shocking, isn't it?

In addition to being free to use and peruse, another great feature about FanGraphs are these WPA and Leverage graphs that they do for each game, which show you the most important plays that happen, and their effect on each team's chance of winning said game. Obviously, the picture at the top of the page is from last night's Pirates/Astros tilt at PNC Park, where completely overworked righty specialist Tyler Yates gave up what proved to be the two winning runs in the seventh inning, with some help from Sean Burnett. As you can see, the highest leverage situation was Yates' at bat against Kaz Matsui, which ended with Matsui doubling in Mark Loretta to give the Astros a 6-4 lead.

I have thoughts on the All-Star Game selections, mostly that Pat Burrell ought to be standing with a picket sign outside of Bud Selig's house, but also that the wrong Bucco outfielder got picked for the game if they were going to take just one. We'll get to that; I promise. For now, everything is leading up to the long-awaited finale of the Yankees series, which will be played out today, starring lefty Paul Maholm and Yankee hurler Mike Mussina. It should be good times.

Gorzelanny Demoted

Well, I can't say that I saw this coming.

I guess the new regime was not kidding around when they said that accountability would be a theme for 2008. The demotion of Ronny Paulino was somewhat predictable, given the play of Doumit, and John Russell's love of the experience and "grinder" mentality that Raul Chavez has and Paulino probably lacks.

But Gorzelanny? How does a team desperate for halfway-decent starting pitching demote a healthy starter who won 14 games last year unless it's to send a message that getting lit up by the Brewers is not acceptable.

Here are Gorzelanny's splits this season:

Overall: 6-7, 17 GS, 87.2 IP, 61 BB, 53 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.825 WHIP, 64 ERA+ (!)

Home: 5-1 W/L, 9 GS, 50.2 IP, 34 BB, 30 K, 4.62 ERA, 1.697 WHIP
Road: 1-6 W/L, 8 GS, 37 IP, 27 BB, 23 K, 9.24 ERA, 2.0 WHIP

Both of those are not good, but those road stats are horrible. His BABIP is .300 at home and .304 on the road, so nothing about this has to do with bad luck. When you're putting two guys on base every inning on the road, there's no way you're getting out of there alive.

Put plainly and simply, the guy is just not throwing strikes that don't get hit into oblivion. That 0.868 K/BB ratio, in the words of Charles Barkley, is "just turrible." Let's hope a little vacation to central Indiana will be just what the doctor ordered for Major Tom.

The bigger concern, perhaps, is who is going to fill Gorzelanny's shoes in the rotation. Phil Dumatrait and Ian Snell are supposed to come off the DL this week, and teen hearthrob John Van Benschoten is still with the team, but we know how well things go when he starts. Another start for Jimmy Barthmaier, perhaps? I guess we'll see.

Bucco Blitz: Gimme a Break Edition

So, I had intended to write an entry earlier today about how overworked the bullpen continues to be, as evidenced by last night's extra-inning craziness, but Blogger has been giving me problems at my place of regular employment (something about cookies, oddly enough). Then, of course, this happened. Five blown saves in less than a month (the only five all season) was apparently enough of a warning sign for the team to suggest he get an MRI. I'll throw Neil Huntington a bone and say that the team is at least being proactive, though it doesn't help to lose your closer for eight weeks. Things like this happen randomly, but wouldn't it be a little more reasonable to think that the guy was getting just a little too much work? I'm not going to draw a conclusion until I get that internet medical degree in the mail, but hopefully the same ailment (or something worse) doesn't befall the other three guys in the bullpen that are being used just about every day (Mssrs. Marte, Grabow, and Yates).

Speaking of which, are we to assume that Damaso Marte steps into the closer role, given that he filled in earlier this year, and LHPs outnumber RHPs in the bullpen? Probably. Marte's OPS+ is 72 in high leverage situations, which is above his OPS+ in middle and low leverage situations, but still more than respectable. Let the Marte era begin. The bullpen is dead; long live the bullpen.

Speaking of said bullpen, yes, it is still overworked. The bullpen has already pitched 293 innings this year, which would put them well beyond last year's 514 2/3 if the current pace keeps up. The team the Pirates "could be," those plucky Devil Rays, have only had to make use of their bullpen for 246 inning so far this year. Basically, this all just reinforces the point that the starters have to pitch better, thus the bullpen has to pitch less, for the team to be competitive in the second half. This should not be news to anyone.

Also worth mentioning is that the Pirates have the worst Defensive Efficiency Rating in all of baseball at 0.682, just behind the Reds at 0.683. What that means, basically, is that the Pirates have the lowest percentage of balls in play converted to outs. For a staff that doesn't strike many batters out (and thus puts a lot of balls in play), that's a recipe for disaster, and the defense bears an unrecognized chunk of the responsibility for the pitchers' poor performance so far.

And in other news...

- Steve Pearce will take Capps' spot on the 25-man roster.

- Dejan convers some more ground regarding batting the pitcher in the eighth spot in his Q&A today. AOL also has an article on the same topic. Paul Meyer also says we haven't seen the last of it. (He's right, as JVB is in the eight spot against the Reds this evening.)

- The geniuses (genii?) over at Fire Joe Morgan had about five updates today, one of which included some priceless Dusty Baker comments on Dunn and Griffey matching up against Pirate pitchers. Find the entry for "Gallimaufry Time!" and read to the bottom. Priceless.

- Joe Starkey turns in the same column from last week. Go Joe! To quote the man himself: "It's easy to be critical now." Keep going for that low-hanging fruit, buddy.

- The Pirates are waiting to exhale before signing Tanner Scheppers, who may or may not be injured still. He's expected to come to Pittsburgh on July 27 to do various tests, including throwing a few pitches for assembled dignitaries.