52 Years in the Making

Having decided to do his best Tony LaRussa impression, Pirates manager John Russell will bat starting pitcher Paul Maholm in the 8th slot in the lineup for tonight's game agains the Cincinnati Reds, set to start in about an hour and a half.

Russell is perhaps seeking to take advantage of Ken Griffey, Jr.'s absence from the lineup due to his poor performance against LHPs by inserting the sweet-swinging Maholm, he of the career .159/.217/.168 line against RHPs, into a lineup spot other than ninth, where he was clearly being wasted.

This marks the first time a Pirate pitcher has started at any place in the order other than ninth since 1956. Just for reference, 1956 was Roberto Clemente's second year in the big leagues.

(Note: I actually don't think this is a terrible idea, batting Maholm between Mientkiewicz and Wilson. It probably won't make a difference, but it's not completely stupid, which is a step in the right direction when we're talking about Bucco managers of the last 10 years.)

Checking in with PECOTA

First, for those of you who may be unfamiliar with PECOTA, go here for a primer.

I thought it would be somewhat interesting, given the dismal performance of the team in inter-league play again this year, to check in with the PECOTA projections for the main position players (pitchers to come later in the week) and see how they are doing at the halfway mark. Shall we?

Catcher:
Ryan Doumit (Actual): .342/.387/.619, 10HR, 24 RBI, .354 EqA, 21.6 VORP
Ryan Doumit (PECOTA): .270/.340/.460, 10HR, 37 RBI, .280 EqA, 11.7 VORP
Breakout: 26%, Improve: 55%, Collapse: 26%, Attrition: 28%

First Base:
Adam LaRoche (Actual): .220/.297/.358, 7 HR, 31 RBI, .237 EqA, -4.6 VORP (!)
Adam LaRoche (PECOTA): .270/.350/.480, 24 HR, 84 RBI, .290 EqA, 18.7 VORP
Breakout: 17%, Improve: 47%, Collapse: 21%, Attrition: 16%

Second Base:
Freddy Sanchez (Actual): .232/.261/.317, 5HR, 32 RBI, .204 EqA, -12.7 VORP (Team Worst)
Freddy Sanchez (PECOTA): .300/.340/.430, 10 HR, 68 RBI, .270 EqA, 25.0 VORP
Breakout: 11%, Improve: 33%, Collapse: 25%, Attrition: 6%

Third Base:
Jose Bautista (Actual): .263/.332/.439, 9 HR, 35 RBI, .275 EqA, 6.2 VORP
Jose Bautista (PECOTA): .260/.340/.440, 18 HR, 71 RBI, .280 EqA, 17.6 VORP
Breakout: 34%, Improve: 60%, Collapse: 25%, Attrition: 6%

Shortstop:
Jack Wilson (Actual): .305/.341./.339, 0 HR, 10 RBI, .268 EqA, 3.9 VORP
Jack Wilson (PECOTA): .270/.320/.390, 9 HR, 52 RBI, .260 EqA, 13.4 VORP
Breakout: 22%, Improve: 46%, Collapse: 20%, Attrition: 17%

Left Field:
Jason Bay (Actual): .284/.389/.533, 16 HR, 42 RBI, .331 EqA, 28.7 VORP
Jason Bay (PECOTA): .270/.360/.490, 25 HR, 82 RBI, .300 EqA, 26.1 VORP
Breakout: 15%, Improve: 43%, Collapse: 18%, Attrition: 10%

Center Field:
Nate McClouth (Actual): .283/.362/.527, 15 HR, 51 RBI, .319 EqA, 28.5 VORP
Nate McClouth (PECOTA): .270/.340/.450, 12 HR, 47 RBI, .280 EqA, 15.2 VORP
Breakout: 31%, Improve: 72%, Collapse: 15%, Attrition: 24%

Right Field:
Xavier Nady (Actual): .316/.379/.516, 10 HR, 49 RBI, .319 EqA, 20.5 VORP
Xavier Nady (PECOTA): .280/.340/.470, 16 HR, 65 RBI, .280 EqA, 15.2 VORP
Breakout: 26%, Improve: 57%, Collapse: 15%, Attrition: 14%


Review:

Obviously, the outfield has outperformed everyone's expectations, and at least the slash nubmers for McClouth and Nady will come back toward the projections slightly. It's interesting to see that Bay, McClouth, Nady, and Doumit are all already above their VORP projections (measured in runs) for the year. It also warrants mentioning that Bay, McClouth, and Nady are all among the top 12 in the NL in EqA, and those three plus Doumit are in the top 20 in the NL for Runs above Position. That's a productive crew.

I was surprised to be reminded that Bautista's breakout and improve percentages were so high, but if anyone is doubting whether or not PECOTA is accurate, just take a look at Jose's projections. Aside from his VORP, he's basically dead on his projection numbers at the halfway mark.

Then there's the bad news. Obviously LaRoche is hurting the offense, as we all know, but I don't think anyone realizes how bad it's gotten with Freddy Sanchez. Not only is his VORP the worst on the team (including pitchers, but just with respect to their hitting), but his slash stats and his .204 EqA are just abysmal. This is the guy John Russell has hitting in the second spot in the order as recently as TODAY. The guy is clearly hurt, and the longer he keeps playing, the more damage he does to himself and the team.

It'll be interesting to see how these play out as the season goes along. My guess is that Nady's numbers will be influenced greatly by another team, as he will most likely be traded in the next month, but it'll be fun to see how McClouth and Doumit finish, as well as whether or not LaRoche can swing his way back into PECOTA's favor.

Extra Innings

Pinch me, because it's late and I must be dreaming. Not only did a replacement starter from Indianapolis, one Ty Andrew Taubenheim, go six strong innings and only give up two runs, but the (supposedly) un-clutch star, Mr. Jason Bay, does his best Josh Gibson impression (thanks to the Negro League tribute uniforms) in order to hit a game-winning walk-off home run in the bottom of the 13th inning. THE John Van Benschoten even wound up with a win after pitching a perfect 13th!

This also happened in inter-league play, against the team which currently holds the lead in the AL Wild Card race. Not a bad end to anyone's Saturday night, particularly mine, as I'm bleary-eyed already and it's only 11:30pm.

The rubber match starts tomorrow at 1:35pm EDT, featuring the battler that is Tom Gorzelanny going up against Andy Sonnanstine. Oh God, does this mean that we'll see the red uniforms, since it's a Sunday home game? Hopefully not.

Also, since this was his last week as editor at Deadspin, does anyone else think that Jason Bay is just a taller, (much much) more athletic version of Will Leitch? Discuss.

"Supplies!"

The PG is reporting that Ian "Can't you Snell that" Snell has been placed on the 15-Day disabled list to accomdate the addition of Denny Bautista to the 25-man roster. Snell will be eligible to come off the DL on July 8th, when the team is in Houston.

As Dejan says, this is somewhat surprising, given that Snell was supposed to be throwing a full bullpen session today or tomorrow. Not to be openly biased towards the organization instead of the player, but I doubt the injury has taken a turn for the more serious; it's more likely they're giving him extra rest and time to figure out why he hasn't pitched well this year.

Joba Rules

Well, back to the old grind, it seems. After putting up a 12-spot against the Bombers the night before, the Pirates followed that up with 0 runs on 8 hits in a 10-0 loss last night. The stars of the evening were El Capitan himself, Derek Jeter, who went 3-3 with two doubles, 3 runs scored, and an RBI, as well as Bobby Abreu, who went 3-5 with 2R and 4 RBI, and of course the aforementioned Joba Chamberlain, who ate his way through the lineup, going 6 2/3 with 6H, 1BB, and 7 K. He frequently hit 98 on the gun, and even drew a full-count walk (!) from Zach Duke, on his way to his first win and his first decision as a starter.

Really, there's nothing more to say here other than that this is what good teams do the night after they lose 12-5. (See the Chicago series last week for an example of what good teams don't do.) Jack Wilson mangled a couple throws on some tough ground balls, as good defensive shortstops are wont to do, and for some God-unknown reason, Luis Rivas had a bat in his hand against Chamberlain with Jason Michaels resting comfortably on the bench.

The rubber match starts at 7:05pm, with Paul Maholm squaring off against Mike Mussina, whose 10-5 record is a little inflated, but he's apparently still quite good, though he has been average at best in his last few starts. Maholm has gotten wins in his last two decisions, and like the other starters, has pitched well at home. Of course, this means Maholm will probably implode and Mussina will throw a no-hitter. If nothing else, it might be an opportunity for Pittsburgh residents to chant "Moooooose" for the first time since Johan Hedberg left town.

Let's Go Bucs!

Notes:

- Paul Meyer has been live-blogging the Yankees series for the PG, so I assume the same will be going on today.

- Derek Jeter joins the long list of people who think PNC Park is awesome (scroll down).

- Jimmy Barthmaier will be taking Phil Dumatrait's scheduled start on Friday against the Devil Rays. Whither John Van Benschoten? Someone will have to come off the 25-man roster to accomodate Barthmaier's promotion.

- Xavier Nady is expected to be in the lineup tonight after missing several games with a sore shoulder. There's also word in that article that The Candy Man, Al Oliver, and Bill Virdon will be signing autographs from 6-7pm tonight on the Riverwalk at PNC Park. Also, Johnny Damon is a Red Wings fan. I knew there was something I didn't like about that guy, other than he plays for the Yankees and shaved off that beautiful beard.

- On the farm: Steve Pearce and Neil Walker went for back-to-back HRs last night for Indy, in their 5-0 one-hit win over Buffalo. Bryan Bullington, Jesse Chavez, and Mariano Salas cemented their status as AAAA players by combining their efforts on the one-hit bid. Also, Pearce is now hitting .296/.344/.605 in June, so perhaps he's become able to adjust to hitting more off-speed stuff.

But we already have a Bautista.

The PG is reporting that the Pirates have acquired Tigers' reliever Denny Bautista (not to be confused with Danny Bautista), who came off the disabled list (shoulder tendonitis) earlier in the month and was designated for assignment on Friday to make room for Joel Zumaya's return. In exchange Bautista, the Pirates sent 24-year-old minor league reliever Kyle Pearson, who had been pitching at High-A Lynchburg and is currently on the disabled list. Pearson hasn't pitched since May 16th.

Bautista currently has a 3.32 ERA (125 ERA+) in 16 appearances with 19.0 IP, 14BB, and 10 Ks. He has not pitched since throwing two innings against the Dodgers on June 15th, surrendering one hit and a walk.

"I'm alive and doing fine."

Fill thine cup with "Ahrn" City and rejoice, as the Buccos took the first of a three game set against the most-hated Yankees by a score of 12-5 last night. This was thanks in some part to the inspiration of Pirate legend Bill Mazeroski, who threw out the ceremonial first pitch (thanks to MLB for the pic) in the first real game played by the Pirates and Yanks in Pittsburgh since that fateful day almost 48 years ago.

Rare are the days that I don't have much to complain with regard to the performance of those crazy Pittsburgh Pirates, but this is certainly one of them. Nate McClouth continued his All-Star campaign by going 2-5 with two doubles, and as I learned today from The Hardball Times, in all of MLB, he sits behind only Houston's Lance Berkman in win shares and win shares above bench. I'll save the All-Star voting talk for another time, as I'm sure Mr. McClouth will make the team, but good on him for maintaining an extremely productive year so far for a team that has had very few in recent years from guys not named Jason Bay.

Back to the game, things started well early for the home town team, with McClouth, Freddy Sanchez (3-5, 3R, 1RBI) and even the much maligned Adam LaRoche (3-5, 1R, 2RBI) accounting for two runs on three hits off the Yankees' starter Darrell Rasner, who gave up 7 runs on 10 hits before leaving after the 5th. Tom Gorzelanny battled all day (6 IP, 6H, 3ER, 5 BB, 2K, 1.833 WHIP), but managed to get Bobby Abreu to hit into a double play in the 3rd, and also induced a grounder from Melky Cabrera to escape a bases loaded 2-out jam in the 4th.

As mentioned in this space before, Gorzelanny has been pretty rough this season. Any outing where you post a WHIP of 1.83 and a K/BB ratio of 0.4 and escape with a win is a blessing. However, I'll give the guy credit for getting himself out of a couple jams and going six strong, thus saving the bullpen an inning or two of extra work. His home/road ERA split is still alarming (4.84 versus 8.63), and his home OPS allowed now sits at a staggering .231 lower than his road OPS allowed (.768 versus .999). The difference is basically in his SLG % allowed, which is probably accounted for by the fact that he's given up 10 HR on the road vs. only 2 at PNC Park. He only gave up 7 HR on the road all of last season. Tommy, keep the ball in the yard when you go out of town, would ya?

With regard to the HR, Jose Bautista (1-4, 1R, 2RBI) and Ryan Doumit (3-5, 2R, 2RBI) continued their hot-hitting ways by sending a ball over the fence, and in Doumit's case, beond the seats in right-center. It wasn't quite the deepest part of the park, but it was definitely a well-hit ball. Bautista is now .308/.352/.585 in June, with 5HR and 16RBI, so hopefully he has managed to find his way and will continue to do so. Doumit just refuses to ever see the bench again, posting Pujolsian splits in June of .350/.422/.800, which gives him a sOPS of 216 for June (as always, league average is 100). So, despite all reason, the offense continues to produce.

This evening, we get to experience the mystery that is Joba Chamberlain (decisionless in four starts since moving to the rotation). Hopefully hitting coach Don Long encourages them to drive up the pitch count as much as possible, and Zach Duke continues to improve (5.34, 3.68, 2.70 ERAs in April-June, respectively.). Chamberlain is downright nasty against right-handers, so the onus will probably be on McClouth, Doumit, and LaRoche to provide some offense this evening.

If nothing else, we can relish last night's game and Jason Giambi's ridiculous moustache for just a little while longer.

Lineup Analysis

This is the best and worst thing I've seen in a while:

Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis function as applied to the Pirates' everyday lineup.

The best lineup is the following:

1 - Bay
2 - Doumit
3 - Bautista
4 - Nady
5 - McClouth
6 - Sanchez
7 - Wilson
8 - LaRoche
9 - Pitcher

That lineup produces 4.969 runs/game, only slightly better than the actual rate of 4.868 runs/game, which amounts to a less than 8 run improvement on the team total of 370 runs, which would still put the Pythagorean record below the actual record of 36-40.

The good news is that the lineups John Russell is sending out there aren't doing much worse than the best possible lineup, and given the major psychological shift it would cause to start the order with Bay-Doumit-Bautista, the difference is insignificant.

The bad news is that despite their awful pitching, the Pirates are still beating their Pythagorean record, which means that unless they significantly curb the runs allowed in the second half, it doesn't matter in what order JR sends the boys out there to hit, because they're headed for losing season number 16. Also, as I keep saying and the stats bear out, Freddy Sanchez has no business batting anywhere near the top of the order.

Brush off the Haters

With the Yankees coming to town and Jack Wilson mentioned in the article, I figured it was OK to link to mention this:

Though I do think Derek Jeter is vastly overrated because he's a "gamer" and he plays in New York, and he's the captain, and he poops rainbows, etc., but our friend Pizza Cutter over at the fantastic blog Statistically Speaking has been working on a new fielding stat that tells us Jeter isn't quite as bad defensively as we all think. He's still pretty bad, though.

I think it was on Bill Simmons' podcast with Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus where I heard that since OBP, OPS and various other offensive stats are becoming more and more employed throughout MLB evaluations, defensive metrics are going to be the new "hot" thing. Since they're much harder to quantify, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, but it seems to be off to an interesting start so far.

Since the Epstein era began in Boston, defense has played a much more important role. I won't credit it for the emergence of the Sawks as perhaps the premiere organization in MLB, but you have to at least tip your Moneyball cap to those who realized a market weakness and noticed that saving runs allowed by playing good defense is perhaps a little more important than we all thought.

The Bucco Blitz

My apologies for being absent for three days. Every five years or so your alma mater comes calling, and you have to answer. I'm back home now, and ready to inundate you with all things Pittsburgh Pirates. To that end, here we go:

First of all, Beyond the Box Score wrote a great piece on the Pirates' offense shortly before I left town that I didn't have time to post here. They conclude that the production from Jason Bay, Nate McClouth, and (a presumably healthy and untraded) Xavier Nady may slip ever so slightly in the second half, but any decrease in production will probably be counterbalanced by an increase from Adam LaRoche and (a presumably healthy) Freddy Sanchez, both of whom have been hurt by a BABIP well below their career averages.

Let me also respond to the huge embarrassing failure that was the Chicago series, just like some A-hole predicted. There's nothing that can be said for the lousy pitching performances that were turned in other than that perhaps after spending some time with Greensburg native Rocco Mediate, Ian Snell is obviously not right, and apparently neither is Phil Dumatrait. Obviously, the problem here is that the Pirates are Old Mother Hubbard when it comes to pitching depth in the minors, so the likes of T.J. Beam (in lieu of Jesse Chavez) and the beloved John Van Benschoten will carry the load in their absence. I'm interested to see what Beam brings to the table, considering JVB and Co. will be keeping him very busy if recent performance is any indication of what is to come.

Dejan says that Snell may only miss just the one start on Friday, and that Dumatrait should be ready to pitch when he is eligible to come off the DL on July 5th. Nyjer Morgan also made his way back to Pittsburgh, going hitless in six ABs over the weekend.

Speaking of the weekend series, The Buccos used the friendly confines of PNC Park to try and redeem themselves, besting the Toronto Blue Jays in their first ever trip to Pittsburgh, in an effort to show what would have happened in the 1992 World Series had he-who-shall-not-be-named been able to throw out Sid Bream. Jack Wilson stayed classy and played in his 1,000th game as a Pirate in the 6-3 win on Saturday. (Also, at the bottom of that article is a note that 15 of the State College Spikes are players from the 2008 draft.)

The Bronx Bombers come to town tomorrow for the first real game since Bill Mazeroski hit the greatest home run of all time to end the 1960 World Series. More on that tomorrow, but to end things, some quick hits:

- Maz will throw out the first pitch tomorrow night, of which I obviously approve. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'd love to sit down with Maz and pick his brain about all things Pirate (though mostly Clemente). He just always struck me as an interesting and humble guy.

- Gene Collier plays the same old tune that we hear every year, that MLB is unfair for small-market teams. He's right, but for the wrong reasons. The Yankees are not the team he should hate; I'd say Boston is a much better candidate. More on that this week as well.

- At the bottom of this article, there's a note that Pedro Alvarez and Tanner Scheppers, the first two Pirates picks of this year's draft, may be the last two to sign contracts, which would bring the total to 26 out of 50 that would be signed.

- Ron Cook pats Neal Huntington on the back for exercising patience, while taking slight shots at him for signing two guys to long-term (ish) contracts who are under-performing, referring to Huntington as having a .333 average with long-term contracts so far. Nevermind that the two players he mentions as potential "misses" (Snell and Sanchez) got hurt after they signed those contracts, or that it's not even the All-Star break of the first year of those contracts. Though it's still "too early to pass judgment," let's pass Neal a backhanded compliment by saying that .333 average makes him an "All-Star" compared to Bonifay and Littlefield. The guy signed two of the team's best young pitchers and a batting champion with good years left to reasonable contracts that didn't commit the team to a huge long-term expense, let's not take shots at him because two of those guys got hurt. I hear it happens pretty regularly. As you can tell, I love it when someone writes a column evaluating trades and at the same time says it's too early to pass judgment. "Hey guys, two and a half months into this four-year deal it looks like a real bust! Whatever shall we do now? Did I meet my deadline? Good."

Until tomorrow.

No More Bayliss, eh?

The Trib is reporting that Jonah Bayliss has been traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for a case of Molson Canadian player to be named later.

Bayliss has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.625 WHIP in 71 1/3 professional innings pitched.

He was pitching in Indianapolis, where he had an 0-3 record with a 6.00 ERA in 10 2/3 IP.

Success Cycles

ShysterBall, one of my favorite blogs (and not just because he lives and lawyers in Columbus, OH, where I spent most of my life), chimed in on Neal Huntington's comments in the piece from Dejan that I linked to the other day:

It seems so obvious to those of us who have read Bill James and Baseball Prospectus and everything, but there is nothing close to a universal appreciation of things like the success cycle among general baseball fandom. Sure, most fans know that a team is old or young, rebuilding or not, but there are just as many out there who view every move a team makes in the shortest of terms. That may be especially true in Pittsburgh, as Pirate fans have been told that their team was rebuilding so many times in the past 15 years that they can be forgiven if they don't believe such a thing exists anymore.

Huntington, it seems, is setting the right tone here by signalling to fans that he has a long term plan. That mere contention -- and 82 wins has counted for contention in the NL Central in recent years, even if it may not this year -- is not a goal. That he's trying to build a foundation for long term success as opposed to hoping for a mirage season like 1997.

The chorus from the organization during the Littlefield era was that we had "promising prospects" or something similar, but rarely if ever was depth in the minor leagues discussed. Huntington has said time and again that building depth in the minor leagues, particularly pitching depth, is his first priority (as it should be), and he's the first Pirates GM in my lifetime to say that. It seemed that Littlefield was executing his job as though getting the major league club above .500 for one year was his biggest priority, and he failed miserably. Littlefield managed a baseball team like a golfer trying to hole every tee shot with only a collection of different sand wedges.

I'm due for a post on things I support, but one of them is Neal Huntington. He's the absolute wrong choice for the disaffected Pirate fans who just want to see one winning season as soon as possible, but I do think he was a very good choice for the organization. The Pirates most likely will have their 16th consecutive losing season this year, and that's both ridiculous and unfortunate, but rather than find a guy who will go out and try to assemble another "Freak Show" team in the hopes of realizing a winning season, I'm glad they got a guy who understands that the long-term best priority is consistent winning seasons over many years.

Unfortunately, that success cycle is going to take some time to get going in Pittsburgh.

The Morning Cup, 6/19/2008

Not much today, as I'm heading out of town in the morning and have some risk to manage...

Baltimore 2, Houston 1: The O's continue to help out the Pirates by keeping the Astros down in the standings. Lance Berkman hit is 20th HR of the year, but Jeremy Guthrie went eight innings with 8 K's and 1 BB and all he got was a lousy no decision. Side Note: Buster Olney (ESPN Insiders) wrote about the Orioles this morning, and how it's surprising that they've managed to be 36-34, with which I cannot disagree. I did want to mention that I saw the O's play the Mariners back in April in Seattle, and Adam Jones (who came over in the Bedard trade) looked like the best player on the field for most of that game. I know he's 22 and only hitting .260/.297/.384 for the year, but he's at .306/.313/.484 in June, and I think it only goes up from there.

Tampa Bay 5, Chicago 4: I watched most of this game while doing other things, but I watched intently enough to be pissed off by how many fans were wearing Cubs paraphanelia. I get that Tampa isn't a great sports town, but they can't do better for a nationally televised game? Really, Rays fans? Really?

New York Yankees 8, San Diego 5: That makes six straight wins for the Bombers and 8 of their last 10. God help us all.

Kansas City 3, St. Louis 2: Sabermetric-friendly Royal Brian Bannister defies PECOTA by getting to his projected win total before the All-Star break. I'm sure JoePo will have words up about this by the end of the day.

L.A. Dodgers 6, Cincinnati 1: I mention this game only because Brandon Phillips turned a nice unassisted double play that I can't find a clip of, but was all over Baseball Tonight. Check it out.

Buccos Socked in Chi-town, 16-5.

As you might suspect, there's nothing good to say about a 16-5 loss, regardless of the competition. Each team has to survive a few big losses every year, so I don't want to overstate anything, but 16 runs, 19 hits, and 9 runs given up by an increasingly inept bullpen is definitely cause for concern.

If the Pirates are going to be competitive down the stretch (which they aren't), there is at least one question that needs to be answered: When, if at all, is the starting pitching going to come around? Snell is now 3-7 with a 1.873 WHIP and a 71 ERA+. (Those of you unfamiliar with ERA+ should know that 100 is the league average.) He has an 8.14 ERA and a .948 OPS on the road, which has to be enough to drive Jeff Andrews insane. Gorzelanny (on the hill as I write this) is equally as terrible, with a 1.769 WHIP and a 62 ERA+. Those aren't even splits; those are his season stats. Duke and Maholm have been consistently average, which is a huge step forward for both of them, but not the stuff that competitive teams are made of. Dumatrait has potential, and has generally done well, but it'll be interesting how the league responds to him the second and third times around.

Obviously, one of the biggest problems with the starting pitching debacle has been the overuse of the bullpen. Capps, Marte, and Grabow are right around 34 IP, Yates is at 31 IP, and Osoria is at a whopping 48 2/3 IP. That projects close to 80 IP for the first four, and 111 IP (!) for Osoria. John Russell doesn't seem to trust Burnett or the former Indianapolis reliever of the week, so it looks like the aforementioned five will be accounting for the majority of the bullpen innings for the foreseeable future. And to be honest, if I'm a potential trade partner seeking Grabow or Marte, I'm not going to be enthused if either already has 50+ innings on the odometer before July 31, especially if I'm looking to acquire lefty bullpen help for the playoffs.

Also, the offense is bound to stop angering PECOTA, and at least two of the trio of McClouth, Nady, and Doumit are bound to see their numbers regress closer to their career averages. Of course, we're due for LaRoche's second half heroics, but overall, it seems likely that the Bucs will put up at least slightly less runs once the outfield production starts to slip. By that same token, Snell and Gorzelanny are due to improve any day now, so I guess the question is which one will happen first and to what degree, and what kind of effect it will have on the second half.

It seems obvious to say the pitchers need to pitch better for the team to win, but that doesn't make it any less true. The strong production of the outfield has in large part kept the team afloat (despite a Pythagorean record of 32-39), but without improved performance from the rotation, the real record will start to more closely resemble its Pythagorean counterpart. Now that Bay is sick and Doumit is concussed, with Nady maybe or maybe not going to the DL, Sanchez still bothered by his shoulder (I don't care what anyone says, the guy is obviously hurt), and LaRoche waiting to exhale, getting good starting pitching is the only chance the Buccos have to enjoy a winning second half.

And to his credit, Neal Huntington says the quest for a .500 will not take his eyes off the bigger prize. Let's just hope it doesn't take another fifteen seasons to get there.

The Morning Cup

More to come on the Buccos South Side Meltdown last night, but first...

The Yankees do what the Yankees do, beating the Fathers 8-0 in New York. Thus begins their inevitable climb toward the top of the division, where they will battle it out with the Red Sox throughout September for the AL East title, and we're subjected to yet another montage of Bucky Dent, Aaron Boone, and Dave Roberts clips for 30 days straight.

The A's take some heat off the Pirates by pulverizing the Diamondbacks 15-1 at the (former) BOB. I know Billy Beane is the Frank Sinatra of baseball GMs thanks to Moneyball, but someone ought to write a story about how this team is now 39-31 and 3 games out of first place in the AL West. Since coming out of the gate teeth-first to start the season, the Snakes are 11-19 in their last 30.

Mark Teixeria makes his first trip to Arlington since being traded to help the Braves lose to the Rangers 7-5, and gets some sweet chin music from Vicente Padilla in the process. Josh Hamilton hits his 19th HR of the season, and sits at .315/.361/.595 (OPS+ of 155) for the year.

King Felix goes 7 1/3 and befuddles the Marlins en route to a 5-4 win, further solidifying his case to play in Yankee Stadium at the All-Star Game. Hernandez struck out nine, including the side on nine pitches in the fourth. That's Bugs Bunny type stuff.

The Gambler Kenny Rogers knows the secret to survival is knowing what to throw away, and knowing what to keep, as evidenced by his 5-game streak (and counting) of surrendering two earned runs or less. The Tigers continue to play well after beating the Giants 5-1. They sit at 33-38, 8 1/2 games out of first, but their Pythagorean record is 35-36. Either way, I'm in agreement with Rob Neyer that we haven't heard the last of the Tigers or the Tribe in the AL Central.

White Sox Preview

The Bucs travel to the South Side of Chicago this week to take on the White Sox (38-31, 1st place in the AL Central), at the fiscally advantageous time of 7:11pm CDT tonight and tomorrow, with a 1:05pm start on Thursday. After their torrid streak following Ozzie Guillen's tirade earlier in the month, the Sox have since lost 5 of 6, including a three-game sweep by the Tigers in Detroit, and losing two of three to the Rockies at home over the weekend. Their offense has failed to muster more than five runs in any game during that six-game stretch, scoring five only once in a 5-4 win over the Rockies on Friday. This was after scoring 61 runs in the previous seven games (all wins). Clearly Mr. Guillen will have something to say if the south-siders continue to struggle against the utterly mediocre Pirates.

Think "utterly mediocre" is too harsh? Check it out: the Buccos are 5-5 in their last 10, 10-10 in their last 20, and 15-15 in their last 30. Though there are many who are eager to accept utter mediocrity at this point, there's something about those numbers that just doesn't feel good. Treading water with this pitching staff is somewhat of an achievement, but considering that McClouth, Doumit, and Nady (pre-injury) are probably playing over their respective heads, those numbers start to look a little more shaky.

Pitching: Speaking of shaky, the pitching staff brings some awful road stats to The Cell. Ian Snell (7.40 road ERA, .894 road OPS) has been very good his last two starts (both at home), so hopefully some of that success made the trip to Chicago. Tom Gorzelanny (9.32 road ERA, 1.001 road OPS, which translates to "GOD AWFUL") has somehow managed to post a 5-5 record, despite being just this side of Matt Morris' 2008 performance. Staff "ace" Phil Dumatrait (4.54 road ERA, .698 road OPS) gets the start Thursday, hoping to continue his resurgence (or is it just a surgence?) after giving up five earned runs in as many innings his last time out.

Batting: Despite the worse record away from PNC Park, the offense has hit slightly better on the road this year (.746 OPS on the road vs. .727 OPS at home). Despite PNC Park slightly favoring pitchers, it's usually the other way around. Without Nady in the lineup, you can probably expect to see Jason Michaels in RF (1.013 OPS in June despite a .222 BABIP, well below his career average); the rub will be where to put LaRoche/Doumit/Doug M. with two righties (Vazquez and Floyd) pitching in the series, since Raul Chavez seems to be the catcher of choice these days.

Matchups: Javier Vazquez managed a ND against the Bucs last year, in a game the Pirates eventually won. They lost to Mark Buehrle the day before, in no small part to the pitching magic of John Van Benschoten. Gavin Floyd has not faced the Pirates since before being traded to the White Sox in the Freddy Garcia deal in 2006. Snell lost to the White Sox in 2006 in his only start against them. Gorzelanny has never faced his other home town team, but hopefully he doesn't match his numbers against the Cubs (6.75 ERA). Dumatrait has also never appeared against the White Sox.

Prediction: Pain, to quote Clubber Lang. Once again the Pirates are set up to play slump-buster to a struggling team, which is especially dangerous in inter-league play, considering how terrible the Pirates are against the American League, and on the road.

Roundup: Both the PG and the Trib are inconclusive about whether or not Nady will make a trip to the DL. Given the lingering shoulder issues for Mr. Sanchez, is it a terrible idea to give Xavier a couple weeks off? Probably not, but with a month and half to go to the trade deadline, it's a lose-lose for the Bucs, whom I wouldn't expect to keep Nady past July 31. Either he sits for a while and diminishes his value by being hurt and not playing, or he plays probably hurt, and his production slips (which it's bound to anyway).

Also, Rob Biertempfel says PNC is getting ready for replay. Not to jump on the bandwagon, but it's about time. Keep the scope limited, get the home run calls right, and have the kinks (somewhat) ironed out before the playoffs start. It's a no-brainer.

Lastly, Dejan says the Pirates signed three more draft picks, bringing the total to 24/50, though Mr. Alvarez was not among the three that were signed.

The Morning Cup

Bill Bavasi (Mariners GM) and Willie Randolph (Mets Manager) are shown the door by their employers. Lee Pelekoudas and Jerry Manuel, respectively, will fill in for the dismissed until such time as the clubs find someone else to fire within 3-4 years. Last night the Mariners lost 6-1 to their bitter rivals the Florida Marlins, and the Mets managed to beat the Angels 9-6 apparently just before Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson (whom many have given credit for the resurgence of Ollie Perez), and third base coach Tom Nieto had what must have been a very awkward meeting with Omar Minaya.

Ryan Howard took a break from doing practice pop-ins to club 2 HRs and a triple in the Phillies' 8-2 win over the Red Sox. He now has 19 HRs and 62 RBI for the season, but still an OPS+ of 108, well below his career average of 144.

Jair Jurrjens continues to pitch well as the Braves beat the downtrodden Rockies 7-1. Makes you wonder whether or not there really was a serious offer of Mr. Jurrjens for one Jack Wilson last year. Nevermind, what could the Pirates do with a young right-handed starter with an ERA under 4.00? Don't answer that, because the answer probably includes a visit to Birmingham to meet with Dr. James Andrews.

Mike Fast from The Hardball Times wrote a really interesting article yesterday about Reds pitcher Danny Herrera and his apparent screwball. Now most of us only know the screwball from playing MVP Baseball, or something similar, since the pitch is apparently quite stressful to throw, but Mr. Fast does a very nice job of scouring the pitch f/x data to show just how screwy that screwball is.

Welcome!

Look, this may be a terrible idea, in which case you all will have the right to criticize me later, but at 27 years old, I'm more devoted to baseball now than ever before, and I think I need an outlet for all my various thoughts on whether or not Freddy Sanchez should be batting first or second in the lineup when his OBP is less than .300, so here we are.  It's probably foolish to start a Pirates blog, but I've certainly done worse.

Admittedly, I know tragically little about how most statistics and sabermetric methods of analysis work, and I have no ability to understand pitch f/x, but I find it all quite interesting, so I'll do my best to use them accurately (read: when they help me prove a point).  Other than that, I'll hopefully say something interesting and moderately humorous about the world's greatest game, while remaining rational, except when Francisco Cabrera is involved.

So, welcome.  If nothing else, at least I've provided the world with one more link to baseball-reference.com, which may or may not be the most valuable website ever.