Checking in with PECOTA

First, for those of you who may be unfamiliar with PECOTA, go here for a primer.

I thought it would be somewhat interesting, given the dismal performance of the team in inter-league play again this year, to check in with the PECOTA projections for the main position players (pitchers to come later in the week) and see how they are doing at the halfway mark. Shall we?

Catcher:
Ryan Doumit (Actual): .342/.387/.619, 10HR, 24 RBI, .354 EqA, 21.6 VORP
Ryan Doumit (PECOTA): .270/.340/.460, 10HR, 37 RBI, .280 EqA, 11.7 VORP
Breakout: 26%, Improve: 55%, Collapse: 26%, Attrition: 28%

First Base:
Adam LaRoche (Actual): .220/.297/.358, 7 HR, 31 RBI, .237 EqA, -4.6 VORP (!)
Adam LaRoche (PECOTA): .270/.350/.480, 24 HR, 84 RBI, .290 EqA, 18.7 VORP
Breakout: 17%, Improve: 47%, Collapse: 21%, Attrition: 16%

Second Base:
Freddy Sanchez (Actual): .232/.261/.317, 5HR, 32 RBI, .204 EqA, -12.7 VORP (Team Worst)
Freddy Sanchez (PECOTA): .300/.340/.430, 10 HR, 68 RBI, .270 EqA, 25.0 VORP
Breakout: 11%, Improve: 33%, Collapse: 25%, Attrition: 6%

Third Base:
Jose Bautista (Actual): .263/.332/.439, 9 HR, 35 RBI, .275 EqA, 6.2 VORP
Jose Bautista (PECOTA): .260/.340/.440, 18 HR, 71 RBI, .280 EqA, 17.6 VORP
Breakout: 34%, Improve: 60%, Collapse: 25%, Attrition: 6%

Shortstop:
Jack Wilson (Actual): .305/.341./.339, 0 HR, 10 RBI, .268 EqA, 3.9 VORP
Jack Wilson (PECOTA): .270/.320/.390, 9 HR, 52 RBI, .260 EqA, 13.4 VORP
Breakout: 22%, Improve: 46%, Collapse: 20%, Attrition: 17%

Left Field:
Jason Bay (Actual): .284/.389/.533, 16 HR, 42 RBI, .331 EqA, 28.7 VORP
Jason Bay (PECOTA): .270/.360/.490, 25 HR, 82 RBI, .300 EqA, 26.1 VORP
Breakout: 15%, Improve: 43%, Collapse: 18%, Attrition: 10%

Center Field:
Nate McClouth (Actual): .283/.362/.527, 15 HR, 51 RBI, .319 EqA, 28.5 VORP
Nate McClouth (PECOTA): .270/.340/.450, 12 HR, 47 RBI, .280 EqA, 15.2 VORP
Breakout: 31%, Improve: 72%, Collapse: 15%, Attrition: 24%

Right Field:
Xavier Nady (Actual): .316/.379/.516, 10 HR, 49 RBI, .319 EqA, 20.5 VORP
Xavier Nady (PECOTA): .280/.340/.470, 16 HR, 65 RBI, .280 EqA, 15.2 VORP
Breakout: 26%, Improve: 57%, Collapse: 15%, Attrition: 14%


Review:

Obviously, the outfield has outperformed everyone's expectations, and at least the slash nubmers for McClouth and Nady will come back toward the projections slightly. It's interesting to see that Bay, McClouth, Nady, and Doumit are all already above their VORP projections (measured in runs) for the year. It also warrants mentioning that Bay, McClouth, and Nady are all among the top 12 in the NL in EqA, and those three plus Doumit are in the top 20 in the NL for Runs above Position. That's a productive crew.

I was surprised to be reminded that Bautista's breakout and improve percentages were so high, but if anyone is doubting whether or not PECOTA is accurate, just take a look at Jose's projections. Aside from his VORP, he's basically dead on his projection numbers at the halfway mark.

Then there's the bad news. Obviously LaRoche is hurting the offense, as we all know, but I don't think anyone realizes how bad it's gotten with Freddy Sanchez. Not only is his VORP the worst on the team (including pitchers, but just with respect to their hitting), but his slash stats and his .204 EqA are just abysmal. This is the guy John Russell has hitting in the second spot in the order as recently as TODAY. The guy is clearly hurt, and the longer he keeps playing, the more damage he does to himself and the team.

It'll be interesting to see how these play out as the season goes along. My guess is that Nady's numbers will be influenced greatly by another team, as he will most likely be traded in the next month, but it'll be fun to see how McClouth and Doumit finish, as well as whether or not LaRoche can swing his way back into PECOTA's favor.