Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Lineup Analysis

This is the best and worst thing I've seen in a while:

Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis function as applied to the Pirates' everyday lineup.

The best lineup is the following:

1 - Bay
2 - Doumit
3 - Bautista
4 - Nady
5 - McClouth
6 - Sanchez
7 - Wilson
8 - LaRoche
9 - Pitcher

That lineup produces 4.969 runs/game, only slightly better than the actual rate of 4.868 runs/game, which amounts to a less than 8 run improvement on the team total of 370 runs, which would still put the Pythagorean record below the actual record of 36-40.

The good news is that the lineups John Russell is sending out there aren't doing much worse than the best possible lineup, and given the major psychological shift it would cause to start the order with Bay-Doumit-Bautista, the difference is insignificant.

The bad news is that despite their awful pitching, the Pirates are still beating their Pythagorean record, which means that unless they significantly curb the runs allowed in the second half, it doesn't matter in what order JR sends the boys out there to hit, because they're headed for losing season number 16. Also, as I keep saying and the stats bear out, Freddy Sanchez has no business batting anywhere near the top of the order.

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