Stop, Drop, KABOOM.

Well, with all the trade talk and speculation swirling around Jason Bay since, what, last September, did anyone see the Dodgers mentioned?

Yeah, me neither, but it has happened. The team site and others are reporting that Pirates LF Jason Bay was traded to the Red Sox in a three-team deal with the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Red Sox sent MannyBManny to the Dodgers, and pitcher Craig Hansen and outfielder Brandon Moss to the Buccos, while the Dodgers sent pitching prospect Bryan Morris and third baseman Andy LaRoche to the Pirates to complete the deal.

I'd say the Red Sox come out about even in this deal, while the Dodgers unload a guy they should have been playing but weren't, and a high ceiling prospect, in order to jam up their already crowded outfield, which includes two overpaid, old center fielders. So, Joe Torre gets to decide who will play the three spots between Andre Either/Matt Kemp/MannyBManny/Andruw Jones/Juan Pierre. Good thing he's not still in New York.

The Dodgers are trying to make a run, and that's fine, but god only knows why they continue to jam up their major league outfield. The Red Sox are screwed with their fans unless A.) Bay plays very well, not just well, but very well, and/or B.) They win the World Series. Considering that Bay has never had to face intense media scrutiny, I'm interested to see how his year and a half in Boston plays out.

My favorite part of this is that Neal Huntington is showing that he has the brass to send away a "franchise" player, and blow this thing up for younger talent if he thinks it's the right thing to do. Instead of signing him to a long-term deal (like Cam Bonifay), or trading him for pennies on the dollar (like Dave Littlefield), Mr. Huntington has done well (by my humble estimation) in his first trip through the trading deadline.

Though I enjoyed Jason Bay's work for most of his career with the Pirates, I will have to admit that he always left me waiting for him to take the next step and become an elite player, mostly because the Pirates hadn't had one since (pre-PE) Barry Bonds. His most similar batter by age is Geoff Jenkins (974), which sounds about right. Jim Edmonds and J.D. Drew are in there too at lower numbers (remember defense isn't considered), and they say just what the numbers should say about Bay: he's a very productive major leaguer with good power who will produce All-Star seasons in his prime. Now that his prime is ending, it was the right time to let him go. He's wanted to play for a winner for years, and so I wish him the best in Boston. You can bet that if the Devil Rays don't make the playoffs, I'll sheepishly root for the Sox this year on account of Mr. Bay.

We'll tackle the specifics of the players acquired later, but for now, I'm quite happy with four young quality prospects in exchange for one and a half years of Jason Bay at age 29 and 30. Is something wrong with me that I'm actually enjoying the trade deadline for once?

Bay and Grabow Traded?

Baseball Prospectus is reporting that a three-way trade between the Marlins, Red Sox, and your Pittsburgh Pirates that is currently pending Commissioner Selig's approval will send Jason Bay and John Grabow to the Red Sox in return for 24-year-old Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida and three prospects, two from the Red Sox, and one from the Marlins. Mercurial outfielder MannyBManny goes to the Marlins along with a Red Sox prospect, and some money to cover his remaining salary.

Obviously a lot depends on who the prospects are, but at least up front, that sounds like reasonable return for the affordable Bay, who is under team control through 2009, and the reliable (if overworked) Grabow, who is immediately a bona fide LOOGY for the Sox.

The difference between MannyBManny and Bay is not that large (at least this season), and Grabow gives them much needed left-handed help, but if I'm Theo, I'm not sure I pull the trigger on this deal. It seems more likely that this is the kind of trade that falls apart at the last minute, and the Sox go "Gee Manny, we tried, I guess we just have to finish the season together," while they make a run at the World Series. Then in the off-season, they don't pick up Manny's option, and hope they can otherwise swing a deal for Bay or Matt Holliday, or someone like that who didn't get traded by tomorrow. Then again, Theo makes a ton of money and has a legion of female admirers, while I write a Pirates blog that no one reads. Something tells me his decision-making skills might be better than mine.

Personally, I've never disliked the Marlins (though I hate looking at their stadium), so it will be interesting to see what they can do with MannyBManny in that spacious outfield. That would make at least a third of their defense (the two Ramirez boys and Dan Uggla) comprised of guys who have deplorable skills with the glove. Seeing MannyBManny running around in left at Pro Player Field at Dolphins Stadium will be interesting to say the least.

We'll wait and see, I guess.

Also: The Baseball America prospects blog has a brief story about Ryan Tucker, the Marlins' AA player who's been jerked around all night with all the impending trade talk.

More Self Service

Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus wrote an article for SI which (in part) reviewed the Nady/Marte trade from a much more reasonable perspective.

BP has Marte's expected wins at 3.149 for 2008. Assuming he adds one more (which is generous) this year, and they pick up the option for 2009 at the same rate, that means he gives the Yankees approximately five wins between now and the end of his contract.

BP has Nady's WARP3 (which includes defense) at 8.8 wins for 2008, and assuming he adds one more, and keeps the same production in 2009 (which he won't, but whatever), that means he gives the Yankees approximately 11 wins between now and free agency.

That makes 16 wins (generously) before Nady and Marte hit the open market after next season, in exchange for a potential phenom in Tabata who is under at least six years of team control, and two to three major league or close to major league pitchers who will be in the organization until at least 2011.

Anyone care to speculate on the VORP involved there? I guarantee you it's greater than 16 wins between now and next September.

Self Service

I think it's fair to say that most of the feedback regarding the Nady/Marte trade has been negative towards the return that the Pirates received. As I said over the weekend, I think that's misguided, considering the Bucs traded guys who had some short-term value for team-controlled guys with considerably more long-term value, among other reasons.

Well, it seems that I am not alone in that thinking, thankfully:

First, Peter Bendix of Behind the Box Score takes a look at Nady's production against right-handed pitching, which is up this year from his career averages, and concludes that it is unlikely that Xavier suddenly figured out how to hit righties at 29. To be fair, that's not what the Yankees wanted him for, and he still has value for his high numbers against lefties.

Secondly, the aforementiond Mr. Bendix gives a more general view of the Pirates' return on this trade, and has favorable things to say about the deal, namely:

Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte are luxuries, nice to have if you can afford them but certainly not core players. As such, they are unlikely to bring in any top flight talent along the lines of a Matt LaPorta. The Pirates are in the position where they need quantity almost as much as they need quality, and they received both in this deal. While none of the pitchers are likely to be as good as a Phil Hughes or even an Ian Kennedy, we are talking about three pitchers with an excellent chance of helping a major league roster in each of the next six years; not to mention the fact that McCutchen and Ohlendorf could prove to be above-league-average pieces. Furthermore, despite his problems this year, Jose Tabata is still only 19 years old and thus has plenty of time to figure it out (both on and off the field).

This article from, of all places, The New York Post, includes a telling quote from "an AL executive" (Mark Shapiro, perhaps?) who said the following:

"For Pittsburgh, it's not a great trade talent-wise, but I like what it represents...A lot rides on Tabata, who is a tool shed. Although there are concerns about his health, power and perhaps his makeup, he has the potential to be an impact player at a premium position by the time the Pirates should be competing again. Although not perfect because Ohlendorf is a middle man - maybe better in the NL - and the two other guys are long shots, it is precisely the type of deal the Pirates should be making: That is, one that exchanges impending free agents for potentially premier talent that is more suited to their time horizon. It is also the type of deal that the Pittsburgh club had not been making in recent years, despite it being in its best interest."

Lastly, Fan Graphs chimed in over the weekend with an entry that basically says the percentages point to 2008 Nady looking more like 2007 Nady in the second half of this season. Again, not that there's anything wrong with that.

This morning I actually read someone compare this trade to the Jason Schmidt and Aramis Ramirez deals, which is absolutely ridiculous. Those deals were (impending) salary dumps, where the Bucs got NOTHING in return, and this deal is nowhere close to that level of futility. To buy low on a high-risk, high-reward prospect and get three starting pitchers who can at least help the major league club in the very near future is at the very least decent return for a rental LOOGY and a guy who would be a platoon outfielder on any team other than the Pirates.

As you can tell, I'm frustrated by all this. The notion that the Pirates get screwed on these deals every year by the smarter, richer big market teams is blinding people from seeing that this actually was a good deal for the Bucs. It was a good deal for the Yankees too, but the MSM needs to declare a "winner" and a "loser" so Skip Bayless has something to freak out about on whatever they call Cold Pizza now.

Not that we ever really did, but can we get back to talking baseball and making use of common sense instead of overreacting to everything? It's apparently not likely.

Happy Trails

"It's been a challenging process, I've never seen young prospects have greater value."

- Pirates GM Neal Huntington

What bothers me the most about the conventional wisdom regarding the Nady/Marte trade is that very few people who supposedly have a strong interest in baseball seem to have missed the market trend that is placing a historically high value on high-ceiling young talent. The CW about this trade is that, at the very least, the Pirates did not get enough return on their "two best" trade chips, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. First of all, according to this market, pending the signing of Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates' best trade chip is probably Andrew McCutchen. He would certainly net the highest return. After that, it probably starts with Jason Bay and progresses through several others (including Nate McClouth) before getting to Nady and Marte.

Secondly, this quote from the recent Trib article tells you all you need to know about the trade:

During yesterday's Yankees-Red Sox broadcast, Fox baseball analyst Tim McCarver called it "a steal" for New York. But other pundits disagree.

If Tim McCarver is on one side, you want to be on the other. That's all I have to say about that.

My basic analysis of this trade is that it was a fair exchange for market value, considering what the Pirates gave up and what the Yankees had to offer. Apparently for the local fans and the ESPN bobbleheads to think a trade is successful, Mr. Huntington is going to have to rob someone blind, and that's not going to happen with Brian Cashman. That's why we keep Ed Wade around.

Tabata is really the linch pin in the whole deal. He's an enigmatic 19-year-old already playing at the AA level, though his numbers this year have been less than stellar. Supposedly he has middle of the order power potential, though he hasn't yet shown it, considering he's 19 and all. Ohlendorf is just the type of pitcher we supposedly need, a big hard-throwing righty with a mid-90s fastball and good sinking stuff. Karstens and McCutchen the Lesser, despite what anyone else says, are an improvement over the John Van Benschotens, Ty Taubenheims, Yoslan Herreras and Jimmy Barthmaiers of the world.

We'll take a look at the stats tomorrow, but for now I don't think this trade looks nearly as bad as most have made it out to be. Nady is in his Age 29 season and having what will be the best year of his career. The 33-year-old Marte is a LOOGY on a decent team, and always will be (not that there's anything wrong with that). He's also a free agent at the end of the year who will probably become compensatory picks. The Yankees were not going to give up Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, or Austin Jackson for these two guys, not in this market.

In the end, Neal Huntington did exactly what he said he was going to do, which was take the expendable parts of the major league roster and turn it into minor league depth, particularly pitching. It was what Dave Littlefield could never do, so I'll at least give him credit for that.

Marte and Nady Traded

According to the team website, the club has agreed to trade outfielder Xavier Nady and relief pitcher Damaso Marte to an undisclosed team, perhaps together, perhaps separately. Details on the team(s) and player(s) involved are not yet available, but there is rampant speculation that the Yankees are involved. I guess we'll see what happens.

Who's looking forward to some trade analysis in this space tomorrow? This guy.

On the Move

The "stars" of your Pittsburgh Pirates aren't the only ones preoccupied with moving trucks these days. Your humble author has been in the process as well for the last couple weeks, hence the lack of recent activity in this space. As things begin to settle for me, and as the hot stove leading up to the 7/31 trade deadline gets warmer, hopefully there will be some more activity here.

For now, I bring you these:

Dejan says that Jack Wilson has U-Haul on speed dial, further advancing the "no one is safe" refrain that we've heard from Neal Huntington's crew since their arrival. Given that the best option is the as yet unproven Brian Bixler, and that Wilson is reasonably priced for his performance, if he maintains it through the remainder of his contract, I'd imagine the asking price is somewhat high.

Ed Price from The Newark Star-Ledger reports that the Yankees are stepping up their chase of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Bay and Johnny Damon could split time in left field seeing who can make the slowest throw to home plate. As weak as Bay's arm is some days, I think Damon has him beat. One of my favorite lines about Johnny Damon when he was with the Red Sox was "Johnny Damon: Looks like Jesus, throws like Mary."

If you asked me (and let's assume you did), here's my "most likely to be traded" list (from most to least likely):

1. Xavier Nady: Neal plays it smart and sells high. He'll be hurt again in three weeks, and this will be the best season of his career. One more year before free agency should bring a decent return.

2. John Grabow: Overused or not, he's only 30 and has another arbitration year in 2009. The heavy hitters are short on proven lefty relief, and he could net a nicer return than Marte.

3. Damaso Marte: We'll see what happens. It's a Harvey Dent coin flip at this point.

4. Jack Wilson: Rivas and Gomez can't play short, Bixler's not there. Jumpin' Jack Flash goes and losing season number 16 is all but guaranteed.

5. Jason Bay: The one real All-Star on this team. Sending Bay off for pitching prospects a year and a half before he hits free agency will alienate a ton of the fan base, even if it's the smart thing to do. This is the official throwing in of the towel for this season, as well as 2009.

Let the games begin.

The Real All-Stars

The man they call Pizza Cutter over at the great blog Statistically Speaking has an entry up this morning on who he thinks the real All-Stars should be. Now granted, he uses a different selection criteria than the current system, so the results are noticeably different, but not surprisingly, his system favors the players whose performance dictates they should play in the Mid-Summer Classic.

For those of you who have not yet read the article, I'll spoil the fun. Not only do the Pirates have more than one representative, they actually have three. Congrats to the "real" All-Stars: Nate McClouth, Jason Bay, and...Ryan Doumit. Sorry, Mr. Nady, but that NL outfield is just a little too crowded, since this team actually has to include Pat Burrell. (And no, Alfonso Soriano and Fukudome did not make the cut this time.)

Trade Winds

From mlbtraderumors.com:

SI.com's Tom Heyman is reporting that OF Jason Bay is drawing interest from two NL teams (The D-Backs and Cardinals) in addition to the usual suspects (The Devil Rays and Mets). The article mentions similar interest in Xavier Nady.

The part that I thought was interesting was the prospects that were mentioned as the Pirates' targets in supposed deals with Arizona and St. Louis: Arizona 2B Emilio Bonaficio and STL CF Colby Rasmus, considered elite prospects and perhaps the best in each of those respective farm systems.

Given the struggles of one Frederick Sanchez at second this year, and the current administration's continuing emphasis on building organizational depth, I can see why Bonaficio's name would get mentioned; that trade would be more than defensible. But Rasmus? The Pirates' best prospect is, far and away, Andrew McCutchen, who is already the CF at AAA, and is universally expected to be in the big leagues absolutely no later than the start of the 2010 season. Rasmus is already at AAA and projects to be very similar to McCutchen, with perhaps a stronger arm (and an earlier arrival date), but basically the same skill set. I guess you could trade both Bay and Nady, move McClouth to RF, and play Cutch and Rasmus in LF and CF in whatever arrangement you'd prefer. I would think that given the dearth of pitching depth throughout this organization, the top targets for trading Bay and Nady, who play at perhaps the only positions where there is at least a little depth, would be more than one or two quality pitching prospects. I guess we'll see.

Also from The Detroit Free Press, there are the usual rumors about Damaso Marte and John Grabow for this time of year. Given Capps' injury, I think it's increasingly likely that Marte finishes the season and turns himself into compensation picks when he signs with the Red Sox (who are DYING for left-handed relief) after the season. This is the part where I play sportswriter and say "of course, he could also be traded soon if someone makes the right offer," so I can say basically nothing and take credit for being right later.

Keep those brooms in the closet.

FanGraphs is one of my favorite baseball sites to visit everyday, mostly because it's perhaps the most informative AND aesthetically pleasing sabermetric site out there. You can even export their leaderboards to Excel files and adjust them at your leisure. Also, it's completely free. So, if you want to know that Jason Bay is third among NL OF in WPA (Win Probability Added), and that Nate McClouth and Xavier Nady are fifth and sixth, respectively, FanGraphs is the place for you. And yes, that means that no outfield in baseball has done more to help its team win games than the starting outfield of your Pittsburgh Pirates. Shocking, isn't it?

In addition to being free to use and peruse, another great feature about FanGraphs are these WPA and Leverage graphs that they do for each game, which show you the most important plays that happen, and their effect on each team's chance of winning said game. Obviously, the picture at the top of the page is from last night's Pirates/Astros tilt at PNC Park, where completely overworked righty specialist Tyler Yates gave up what proved to be the two winning runs in the seventh inning, with some help from Sean Burnett. As you can see, the highest leverage situation was Yates' at bat against Kaz Matsui, which ended with Matsui doubling in Mark Loretta to give the Astros a 6-4 lead.

I have thoughts on the All-Star Game selections, mostly that Pat Burrell ought to be standing with a picket sign outside of Bud Selig's house, but also that the wrong Bucco outfielder got picked for the game if they were going to take just one. We'll get to that; I promise. For now, everything is leading up to the long-awaited finale of the Yankees series, which will be played out today, starring lefty Paul Maholm and Yankee hurler Mike Mussina. It should be good times.

Gorzelanny Demoted

Well, I can't say that I saw this coming.

I guess the new regime was not kidding around when they said that accountability would be a theme for 2008. The demotion of Ronny Paulino was somewhat predictable, given the play of Doumit, and John Russell's love of the experience and "grinder" mentality that Raul Chavez has and Paulino probably lacks.

But Gorzelanny? How does a team desperate for halfway-decent starting pitching demote a healthy starter who won 14 games last year unless it's to send a message that getting lit up by the Brewers is not acceptable.

Here are Gorzelanny's splits this season:

Overall: 6-7, 17 GS, 87.2 IP, 61 BB, 53 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.825 WHIP, 64 ERA+ (!)

Home: 5-1 W/L, 9 GS, 50.2 IP, 34 BB, 30 K, 4.62 ERA, 1.697 WHIP
Road: 1-6 W/L, 8 GS, 37 IP, 27 BB, 23 K, 9.24 ERA, 2.0 WHIP

Both of those are not good, but those road stats are horrible. His BABIP is .300 at home and .304 on the road, so nothing about this has to do with bad luck. When you're putting two guys on base every inning on the road, there's no way you're getting out of there alive.

Put plainly and simply, the guy is just not throwing strikes that don't get hit into oblivion. That 0.868 K/BB ratio, in the words of Charles Barkley, is "just turrible." Let's hope a little vacation to central Indiana will be just what the doctor ordered for Major Tom.

The bigger concern, perhaps, is who is going to fill Gorzelanny's shoes in the rotation. Phil Dumatrait and Ian Snell are supposed to come off the DL this week, and teen hearthrob John Van Benschoten is still with the team, but we know how well things go when he starts. Another start for Jimmy Barthmaier, perhaps? I guess we'll see.

Bucco Blitz: Gimme a Break Edition

So, I had intended to write an entry earlier today about how overworked the bullpen continues to be, as evidenced by last night's extra-inning craziness, but Blogger has been giving me problems at my place of regular employment (something about cookies, oddly enough). Then, of course, this happened. Five blown saves in less than a month (the only five all season) was apparently enough of a warning sign for the team to suggest he get an MRI. I'll throw Neil Huntington a bone and say that the team is at least being proactive, though it doesn't help to lose your closer for eight weeks. Things like this happen randomly, but wouldn't it be a little more reasonable to think that the guy was getting just a little too much work? I'm not going to draw a conclusion until I get that internet medical degree in the mail, but hopefully the same ailment (or something worse) doesn't befall the other three guys in the bullpen that are being used just about every day (Mssrs. Marte, Grabow, and Yates).

Speaking of which, are we to assume that Damaso Marte steps into the closer role, given that he filled in earlier this year, and LHPs outnumber RHPs in the bullpen? Probably. Marte's OPS+ is 72 in high leverage situations, which is above his OPS+ in middle and low leverage situations, but still more than respectable. Let the Marte era begin. The bullpen is dead; long live the bullpen.

Speaking of said bullpen, yes, it is still overworked. The bullpen has already pitched 293 innings this year, which would put them well beyond last year's 514 2/3 if the current pace keeps up. The team the Pirates "could be," those plucky Devil Rays, have only had to make use of their bullpen for 246 inning so far this year. Basically, this all just reinforces the point that the starters have to pitch better, thus the bullpen has to pitch less, for the team to be competitive in the second half. This should not be news to anyone.

Also worth mentioning is that the Pirates have the worst Defensive Efficiency Rating in all of baseball at 0.682, just behind the Reds at 0.683. What that means, basically, is that the Pirates have the lowest percentage of balls in play converted to outs. For a staff that doesn't strike many batters out (and thus puts a lot of balls in play), that's a recipe for disaster, and the defense bears an unrecognized chunk of the responsibility for the pitchers' poor performance so far.

And in other news...

- Steve Pearce will take Capps' spot on the 25-man roster.

- Dejan convers some more ground regarding batting the pitcher in the eighth spot in his Q&A today. AOL also has an article on the same topic. Paul Meyer also says we haven't seen the last of it. (He's right, as JVB is in the eight spot against the Reds this evening.)

- The geniuses (genii?) over at Fire Joe Morgan had about five updates today, one of which included some priceless Dusty Baker comments on Dunn and Griffey matching up against Pirate pitchers. Find the entry for "Gallimaufry Time!" and read to the bottom. Priceless.

- Joe Starkey turns in the same column from last week. Go Joe! To quote the man himself: "It's easy to be critical now." Keep going for that low-hanging fruit, buddy.

- The Pirates are waiting to exhale before signing Tanner Scheppers, who may or may not be injured still. He's expected to come to Pittsburgh on July 27 to do various tests, including throwing a few pitches for assembled dignitaries.