Saturday, July 26, 2008

Happy Trails


"It's been a challenging process, I've never seen young prospects have greater value."

- Pirates GM Neal Huntington

What bothers me the most about the conventional wisdom regarding the Nady/Marte trade is that very few people who supposedly have a strong interest in baseball seem to have missed the market trend that is placing a historically high value on high-ceiling young talent. The CW about this trade is that, at the very least, the Pirates did not get enough return on their "two best" trade chips, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. First of all, according to this market, pending the signing of Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates' best trade chip is probably Andrew McCutchen. He would certainly net the highest return. After that, it probably starts with Jason Bay and progresses through several others (including Nate McClouth) before getting to Nady and Marte.

Secondly, this quote from the recent Trib article tells you all you need to know about the trade:

During yesterday's Yankees-Red Sox broadcast, Fox baseball analyst Tim McCarver called it "a steal" for New York. But other pundits disagree.

If Tim McCarver is on one side, you want to be on the other. That's all I have to say about that.

My basic analysis of this trade is that it was a fair exchange for market value, considering what the Pirates gave up and what the Yankees had to offer. Apparently for the local fans and the ESPN bobbleheads to think a trade is successful, Mr. Huntington is going to have to rob someone blind, and that's not going to happen with Brian Cashman. That's why we keep Ed Wade around.

Tabata is really the linch pin in the whole deal. He's an enigmatic 19-year-old already playing at the AA level, though his numbers this year have been less than stellar. Supposedly he has middle of the order power potential, though he hasn't yet shown it, considering he's 19 and all. Ohlendorf is just the type of pitcher we supposedly need, a big hard-throwing righty with a mid-90s fastball and good sinking stuff. Karstens and McCutchen the Lesser, despite what anyone else says, are an improvement over the John Van Benschotens, Ty Taubenheims, Yoslan Herreras and Jimmy Barthmaiers of the world.

We'll take a look at the stats tomorrow, but for now I don't think this trade looks nearly as bad as most have made it out to be. Nady is in his Age 29 season and having what will be the best year of his career. The 33-year-old Marte is a LOOGY on a decent team, and always will be (not that there's anything wrong with that). He's also a free agent at the end of the year who will probably become compensatory picks. The Yankees were not going to give up Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, or Austin Jackson for these two guys, not in this market.

In the end, Neal Huntington did exactly what he said he was going to do, which was take the expendable parts of the major league roster and turn it into minor league depth, particularly pitching. It was what Dave Littlefield could never do, so I'll at least give him credit for that.

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