There's a lot in there that's pretty difficult to completely understand, so I won't try and pick apart all the gory details, but you should be relieved to read this part:
So given LaRoche’s minor league track record, he has a high probability of becoming an everyday player but a low chance of being a star. While this type of prospect might not seem too valuable, an everyday player cost controlled for six years is immensely valuable as Laroche’s surplus value using this Bayesian analysis coming into 2008 was $40 million. Making some basic assumptions about what Laroche could be expected to be paid, PECOTA had Laroche worth around $50 million in surplus value coming into 2008. So it’s good to see that the Bayesian system has a similar rating with PECOTA.
The CW doesn't like it when you trade a player of Jason Bay's caliber for four players, and none of them turn out to be super-stars, but the CW also doesn't understand how valuable it is to have productive, cheap, major league players. It's how Oakland in particular has been successful over the last ten years, despite not having a lot of (if any) marquee players.
More to come on the surprise demotion of another third baseman, Jose Bautista.
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