Another Jack Attack

Eric Seidman over at the always useful FanGraphs put together some thoughts on your shortstop, and I think you should go read them.

I think most Pirate fans tend to be on the overly optimistic side when it comes to Jack Wilson, so it's worth pointing out some things:

1. He's had only three seasons where he topped 600 PA's (2003 - 2005), and it's reasonable to expect that at his advancing age, those years are behind him. So, you have to invest in a reasonable replacement for him (i.e. NOT Chris Gomez).
2. As brilliant as he can be with the glove, which saves runs and generally has a somewhat underrated value, do remember that he has only had two seasons above league average in OPS, 2004 and 2007, when he was 104 and 107 in OPS+, respectively. Before you point out that 104 and 107 OPS+ is well above-average for a shortstop (with which I agree), please remind yourself that his other seasons he had the following OPS+: 40, 67, 70, 74, 77, and 77 in (2001-2003, 2005-2006, and 2008). This is all by way of saying to please remember that 2004 and 2007 are outliers, and not indicative of Jack's true talent level.
3. Also, please bear in mind that his high water marks in OBP are .335 and .350, set again in 2004 and 2007, the rest of his OBP season numbers fare no better than .316. Shortstops may not slug the ball with authority, but they should be able to get on base with greater frequency.

It matters little how many outs you contribute while on defense if you give them right back when you come to the plate. I think Jack Wilson should and probably will stay with the Pirates one more year, mostly because Team Neal won't find anyone willing to take him off the Bucs' hands in this market. Prospects have become the most valued commodity in baseball right now, mostly because they are both cheap and controllable, so teams would rather take a chance by hanging onto a prospect with upside than overpaying for a veteran or free agent who is a relatively known quantity. This is particularly true in this economy, where many free agents have been paid below-market value for their services.

Team Neal is hopefully smart enough to know that paying more than nothing or at least very little of Jack's salary this year in a trade should only be used as a means to get a higher value of return in prospects. The people who value Jack Wilson most probably reside in Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean he's being paid an unfair amount. If he does get traded, let's hope the return is of at least comparable value.