Oh, Andrew!

(WPA Graph: FanGraphs)

Regardles of the exploits of The Legend, Garrett Jones, it's becoming abundantly clear that the best player on this Pirates team is Andrew McCutchen. He started very well, and has actually gotten better as the year has progressed. We've all been down this road with Pirate center fielders before, but I am extremely bullish on McCutchen's potential at this point, and would put his ceiling at somewhere around (if not slightly north of) Grady Sizemore or Carl Crawford, two All-Star center fielders. Then again, we all know what the floor looks like too. (See Hermansen, Chad.)

All that being said, let me show you some splits from Cutch's inaugural campaign, and please bear in mind that these all come with "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE" at the top:

First Half (166 PA): .292/.343/.455, with a .350 BABIP

Second Half (152 PA): .281/.375/.508, with a .288 BABIP

Last 21 Games (92 PA): .320/.424/.613, with a .276 BABIP

RISP (63 PA): .354/.460/.688, with 4 HR and 31 RBI

2 outs, RISP (29 PA): .261/.414/.565, with 2 HR and 10 RBI

High Leverage (49 PA): .326/.367/.535, with 1 HR and 19 RBI

This is at a premium defensive position, while playing well above average defense (10.4 UZR/150), 3rd best in the National League in center field among players with at least 500 innings there.

So it's justified that my heart flutters every time I hear his name, right?

I'm just saying...

As of last night's game, according to FanGraphs Andrew McCutchen has been worth 2.3 WAR (wins above replacement level) in 293 plate appearances over his first two and a half months as a major league player at the tender age of 22. His current wOBA of .359 is best among rookies with at least 250 PA.

If we assume that over a full year that Cutch would get about 700 PA, which is pretty reasonable, that equates to 5.49 WAR over a full season. Raise that number to 750 PA, which is probably high end, but reachable for a leadoff hitter, and that number jumps to 5.89 WAR.

That range of 5.49 - 5.89 would easily put him in the Top 20 position players in the National League, right up there with guys like Jimmy Rollins (5.3 WAR in 2008), Brian McCann (5.8 WAR in 2008), and Jose Reyes (5.9 WAR in 2008). As a rookie.

I don't want to hype him up too much, too soon, but this is not Chad Hermansen, J.J. Davis, or Tike Redman. This guy might just very well be the real *bleeping* deal.

"Ay Dios Mio!"

As anyone who has recently watched the Pittsburgh Pirates play their specific brand of baseball can attest, there has been an overabundance of terrible play in pretty much every aspect of the game since the July 31 trading deadline. The only person keeping the offense afloat is the legendary Andrew McCutchen, who continues to play at a level that does not correspond with his service time. Here's the stats for your starters and relevant bench players in the month of August:

Garrett Jones (60 PA): .259/.333/.444, 6 BB, 18 (!) K, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Andrew McCutchen (57 PA): .304/.404/.630, 9 BB, 5 K, 4 HR, 9 RBI [with a .256 (!) BABIP]

Lastings Milledge (56 PA): .212/.255/.269, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 4 RBI

Ronny Cedeno (55 PA): .275/.315/.392, 2 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Delwyn Young (53 PA): .275/.302/.412, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 8 RBI

Andy LaRoche (50 PA): .238/.360/.381, 7 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Ryan Doumit (44 PA): .186/.205/.326, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Steve Pearce (37 PA): .258/.378/.419, 6 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Brandon Moss (33 PA): .200/.273/.200, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 2 RBI

Ramon Vazquez (19 PA): .333/.474/.467, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 0 RBI


So there's the damage, and it's certainly damaging. I'd chalk it up to a bad month, but the team also hit .225/.252/.372 in July while Garrett Jones was doing his Pujols impression with a .310/.361/.700 (!!!) slash line, including 10 HR and 17 RBI. A few thoughts:

1. When is the Brandon Moss experiment going to be over? You've seen what he's hitting in August; he hit .185/.302/.407 in July, with a half-decent .281/.339/.386 in June, and another terrible .203/.254/.271 in April. Leave out his one good month of numbers in May, and the guy is having a really dreadful season with almost non-existent power. It may be time to accept that he's just not a major league player.

2. For all the people I've seen complain about Neal Huntington expecting Garrett Jones to come back to earth, it looks like that might finally be happening. I would expect to see Steve Pearce getting more PA at first base and perhaps in RF if Jeff Clement demonstrates any ability to play first base before getting a September call-up.

3. Ryan Doumit has looked bad at times, to be sure, but his .194 BABIP in August is well off his career line of .301, so I would expect some improvement from him in the near future. To my completely untrained eye, he doesn't look at all comfortable at the plate, which is causing him to hit more ground balls and fly balls and less line drives. His LD rate is 12% right now, well off his 2007 (20%) and 2008 (23%) numbers. Hopefully things will turn around for him in the last six weeks of the season.


What else can be said about how bad this team is playing right now? It really has been a dreadful three weeks, and even longer if you leave out the stylings of McCutchen and Jones (July version). I'll do my best to repeat this process with the pitching staff tomorrow, which should be even more gut-wrenching. I know we're all looking forward to it.

Realignment

Tom Tango's post on getting rid of our geographical tendencies would be good for baseball. I've long argued against the most recent re-alignment that sent the Pirates to the NL Central where they have no real rivalries (besides, perhaps, the budding feud between the Bucs and the Beer Makers).

#2 on Tom's post argues for a 4-6-8-12 divisional system along market-based lines where the top two teams from each division advance to an eight team playoff, which got my mind grapes working on how I would realign the current structure in baseball to accomodate that. I decided on a 6-6-8-10 system instead of 4-6-8-12, since that seemed to work a little better, and though I toyed with the idea of also incorporating a promotion/relegation system, I couldn't find a sensible way to make it work.

Anyway, here is the breakdown:

Top Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
New York Mets
New York Yankees

Second Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers

Third Tier (8 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Florida Marlins
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals

Fourth Tier (10 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
Oakland A's
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays


I'd imagine it would get a little hairy with the travel arrangements going from Seattle to Miami a few times a year, but you could schedule it so there's a swing through the DC area before/after to play the Nats and O's. This is not too far from the current conference system in the NCAA, albeit on a much larger scale. The biggest money teams (or conferences) end up meeting in the playoffs more, just like we have right now, and your Pittsburgh Pirates toil away in baseball's version of the WAC.

Theoretically, this makes the Pirates' chance of making the playoffs worse (20% instead of just under 25%), but in actuality it might be better given the constant competition with the least competitive teams. Anyway, just some food for thought, since it has no chance of ever becoming reality any time soon.

Send Me on My Way

I'm trying to get back into regularly posting; we'll see how that goes. For now, R.J. Anderson over at the invaluable Fangraphs has some quick thoughts on the Grabow/Gorzelanny trade.

Money quote:

"Back to the Pirates trades as a whole, I ran the math for service time. Without including 2009’s service time, the Pirates have traded 28 years worth of team control time for 95 years worth. Obviously not every player acquired is going to reach the majors or be attractive enough to keep through their first six years, but wow, talk about adding some depth."

Say what you will about Neal Hungtington trading away half the 25-man roster over the last two months, but you can't deny he's stuck to his strategy religiously over the last two years.

The New-Look Buccos

There's going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth if the reported deal of Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan goes through, particularly from the ill-informed. Milledge deserves more than the time I have to give him right now, but as for Hanrahan, he's not nearly as bad as his stats look.

First, go here to see his current year and career statistics.

The first thing other than the 7.71 ERA that jumps out at me is his insane .451 BABIP, way off his career norms, and the norm for any pitcher. As you may already know from my earlier post on this subject, BABIP for pitchers tends to fall very close to .300. Hanrahan's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.56 for the year, actually better than last year when his ERA was 3.95.

What that tells you is that he's had some very bad luck, and his numbers should return to a much reasonable level in the second half of the season. ZiPS has him going with a 3.80 ERA the rest of the way, with 47 K's in 45 IP. His K/9 numbers have been very good since being promoted, and he's cutting down on his BB/9 as well as his HR/9. The guy is a good reliever, he just hasn't had the fortune to show it yet.

More Tony Sanchez

Erik Manning over at the invaluable FanGraphs has a solidly-reasoned take on the Pirates selecting Tony Sanchez with the fourth selection of this year's draft. Money portion:

So what sort of a big league future do scouts envision for Sanchez? In a nutshell, they see a defense-first catcher with slightly above average hitting skills. Being a catcher is about as physically and mentally demanding job as you can imagine, making them harder to come by. That’s why they get a +12.5 run adjustment when figuring their WAR. And most catchers really suck at hitting; the average regular catcher posted a .315 wOBA last year. Say Sanchez meets expectations by being good for a .320 wOBA and half a win on defense every season. We’re talking about a 2, 2 ½ win per season player. Is that really so awful?

After playing it safe with their highest and most expensive pick, Pittsburgh then loaded up on some high-upside arms, including some potentially tough to sign players. Seems to me Huntington executed a well-laid out plan. Play it safe first with a college position player, then load up on pitching when the distinct advantages disappear.

I realize that it's difficult for the casual fan to appreciate the logic behind taking a player with marketable skills that are likely to be preserved, despite the fact that the player in question does not have the best potential or "upside," highest ceiling, whatever at the spot he was taken. However, particularly if the Pirates invest a lot of money in Miguel Angel Sano, this is precisely the draft strategy that makes sense for Team Neal.

2.5 WAR a year is nothing to shake a stick at, particularly if you're strong at other positions. Just keep that in mind.

Andrew McCutchen has just hit his first career major league home run off the Twins' Francisco Liriano in the top of the third with Jack Wilson on base to put the Pirates up 2-0.

More Draft Feedback

More from Keith Law (ESPN Insiders only) on the Pirates' work today in rounds 4-30 of the first year player draft:

Pittsburgh's selection of Tony Sanchez at No. 4 overall on Tuesday was the most controversial pick of the day, but the Pirates did do one thing they promised, taking some tough-sign high school pitchers on Wednesday. Their philosophy is that high school arms are so volatile that paying premium prices in the first round is a poor strategy, and that the value of that first pick (when you might get a premium bat or college arm) is too high to surrender, so try to stockpile young arms in later rounds. Whether Sanchez was the best pick for slot is another question -- I don't think he was -- but the idea of adding young arms who fell due to signability reasons is a sound one, and they added four good ones, two from my top 100 in Jordan Cooper and Zach Von Rosenburg and two who would have ranked in the next 50 or so players in Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson. Stevenson and Cooper both looked like top-two-round picks last summer, but neither had a good spring, with Stephenson losing a little velocity and Cooper pitching very inconsistently until late in the season. If the Pirates sign three of those four kids, it's a great draft, and if they sign two, it's still a good one.

Also, John Perrotto (a name you should have known before his days at piratesreport.com) has some thoughts that roughly echo KLaw.

Some Draft (and other) Thoughts

Before everyone goes all "Same old Pirates" on you, let's consider for a second that Tony Sanchez is universally considered to be the best college catcher in an admittedly much weaker draft than last year, and someone who by all accounts should contribute at the major league level within three years. This is not a situation where the Pirates passed up someone like super-mega-phenom Matt Wieters with a pick like Danny Moskos. They chose a bona fide prospect at a position higher than he probably should have gone. Keith Law's thoughts are (as usual) pretty accurate on this matter.

There's also some criticism being leveled by various sources regarding the Pirates being constrained by budgetary concerns, and wanting to conserve some money on their first round pick (again, in an admittedly weak draft), so that they can spend more money to sign other picks. This would seem to me to be sound business strategy, since the Pirates are short on minor league talent, and would do well by themselves to try and sign as many of their draftees as possible. However, it seems as though many fail to recognize the fact that the Pittsburgh are in fact a business venture. EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL HAS A DRAFT BUDGET. I believe the Pirates spent more money last year in the draft than just about every other team, yet you still hear the same complaining that the club doesn't want to open its checkbook even before the draft and signing period are over. Can we at least wait to see what happens before we pass judgment? Please?

Part of my whining here stems back to the McLouth trade, so I should probably be a little more open about my motivation here: I'm sick of the constant complaining about the Pirates. I've been a fan of this team as long as I've been alive. I hated Dave Littlefield as much as the rest of you, and I've watched as my favorite baseball team was basically bludgeoned to death over the last decade and a half just as much as you have. I get why the vast majority of the people who follow this team are frustrated, and I get that there is a certain "guilty until proven innocent" attitude that they take with the front office as a de facto position, but the constant negativity and rushing to judgment by this fan base is, quite frankly, maddening.

Pittsburgh is a spoiled sports city. I say this as someone who has vociferously and unwaveringly supported the Steelers, Penguins, and Pirates for my entire life, despite the fact that I haven't lived in Pittsburgh since I was a small child. I've supported them in Columbus, for four years while I went to school in (of all places) Cleveland, and while I was wandering in the great Southwest. One thing has never changed about Pittsburgh fans: They feel that winning every game, every year is their birthright. They take losing as badly as any fanbase, and the current situtation of the Pirates has compounded that frustration to almost unimaginable levels. What it's created is an angry, pessimistic, almost wholly negative group of followers for something that is supposed to be an enjoyable diversion from the things that really matter.

After 16 years of futility, the fans of the Pirates are ready to criticize anything that doesn't produce immediate positive results. On a certain level I understand that, as I want to be in attendance for playoff games at PNC Park before I get my first Social Security check, but baseball is not the NFL or the NHL. Developing talent takes years, not just one training camp. Sometimes judging these decisions immediately is obvious, like Moskos over Wieters, but that does not apply to the McLouth/Nady/Bay trades, and it certainly doesn't apply to Tony Sanchez.

Personally, I think Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have earned at least a little bit of trust in their first (almost) two years on the job. Can we please put the torches and pitchforks away for a little while?

The pick is officially Jorge "Tony" Sanchez, the catcher from Boston College. Great defense, and considered to be the best college catcher in the draft. Hit over .300 with an OPS over 1.000, but the strength of his bat is the concern. If he can hit, he should be on a fast track to the majors.

Didn't see that coming, did you?

Well, Team Neal pulled a fast one on us yet again, trading starting center fielder Nate McLouth to the Braves for three prospects: AAA pitcher Charlie Morton, AA outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, and high-A pitcher Jeff Locke. Replacing McLouth will be highly-touted prospect Andrew McCutchen, who will make his debut in about an hour against the Mets at PNC Park. McLouth was signed through the next three years for just under $16 million, so this couldn't really be construed as a salary dump; at least from the perspective of the Pirates' front office, this move was strictly baseball-related.

And you know what? I agree with it. As Keith Law tweeted, from 6/1/08 through 6/1/09, McLouth has hit .256/.327/.447 in 630 PA. That's basically a full season's worth of mediocre performance. I realize he's hit 9 HR this year, and was second on the team with 0.68 WPA/LI (behind...gasp...Freddy Sanchez), but that slash line does not justify the Bucs keeping him throughout the rest of his contract. Nate came out of the gates really fast last year, and didn't play nearly as well down the stretch. Nyjer Morgan's defense has helped McLouth look much better (giving up only 1 run in the field for every 6 he contributes with the bat, as opposed to 1 for 2), but he is still a defensive liability without a good LF next to him. The bottom line is that his current performance is much closer to his true talent level, and at 27, he has a lot less use to the club than three good prospects who each have a higher ceiling.

Of course, Nate's departure also gives us the opportunity to see what kind of asset the club has in Andrew McCutchen. I'm sure you've read the party line that said McCutchen would play when he's "ready," but apparently what that really meant was "as soon as we trade McLouth." My unabashed appreciation for McCutchen has been documented here and elsewhere, so I won't go crazy, but just let me say that I thought about calling off work today so I could make the three hour drive to be in Pittsburgh for the game (which I did Tuesday night to see Santana). McCutchen's current line of .303/.361/.493 shows he's about as ready as he's going to be, and at 22, I'm tempted to say the sky's the limit with him. Can you tell I'm excited?

It's a tough move to swallow on June 3rd, particularly because the Pirates' pythagorean record is 26-26, meaning they've lost a couple games they shouldn't have (and would probably get back later), but there's no way this team is jumping all four or even three of the Milwaukee-St. Louis-Cincinnati-Chicago group currently blocking them in the standings. It might mean the difference between finishing with 73 and 76 wins to make this deal now, but who really cares about that? In the end, I think this trade will be looked upon quite favorably.

Huntington on MLB Network now defending trade. He says Charlie Morton is not far away, and all three are potentially above-average major leaguers. Mentions Hernandez, Morgan, and McCutchen as a potentially great defensive outfield.

Overreact Much?

From Dejan's weekly Q&A session in the PG:

Q: Why would a manager of a Major League Baseball team -- the Pittsburgh Pirates -- refuse a team invitation to attend a private tour and meeting with the President of the U.S.? I understand that James Harrison of the Steelers is standing his ground. But John Russell is the manager of a team. Should he not be there as part of the team? I say fire him for insubordination of the Pirates team and as a representative of the city of Pittsburgh.

Kathleen Twele of Elizabeth

KOVACEVIC: There is a significant difference between being invited to the White House and asking for a tour. The Pirates, hardly a reigning champion, did the latter. And never was President Obama expected to be part of that tour, so meeting him was not "refused," as you put it. Some of the Pirates wanted to see the White House. Some did not.

Can't you hear "The Battle Hymn of the Republic" in the background as you read that? I love the Steelers just as much as the next guy, but I find it very fitting of Pittsburghers that a Steeler (especially one who is Defensive Player of the Year) gets a free pass for skipping out on a meeting with the POTUS, while the manager of the Pirates has to be fired for skipping a tour that the President was never going to attend. Every village has its idiots, I guess.

Mr. Wonderful

Not to steal a nickname from our friends over at Mondesi's House, but Pirates' starter Ross Ohlendorf has looked pretty sterling in the majority of his outings this season, including another fine effort last night against the Cardinals in front of the PNC Park faithful. He surrendered only one run on two hits in six innings while getting 5 strikeouts and 0 walks. The run came on a home run by Skip Schumaker; the only blemish on a pretty strong pitching performance.

So what is the secret to Mr. Ohlendorf's success? Well, a huge part of it, as much as it pains me to admit, is his .246 BABIP which is way off the normal .300 or so for pitchers. You may have read Dejan mention this a couple times in his articles, but the Buccos have benefited from an inordinate number of balls in play being turned into outs. Part of that is improved defense, but most of it is just good luck.

To give you some perspective, Greg Maddux's career BABIP is .286. Pedro Martinez's is .282. Their best seasons were .246 and .237 respectively, when each was at his peak. I by no means think that any of the Pirates' starters have that kind of year in them, so I think Ohlendorf and Zach Duke, who is at .265 are both due for a regression to the mean in the very near future.

Part of Ohlendorf's success (if I can play pitching coach here for a second), is that all his pitches are coming from roughly the same release point, as last night's graph shows here, and he's changing speed's effectively, as you can see here. Though his stuff may not have a lot of snap to it, the ability to change speeds between a 91-92 mph fastball and a 81-82 mph change and slider will help you keep hitters off balance.

Also, Ohlendorf's change and slider are averaging about the same speed, but as you can see below, their break is very different. Pitch f/x actually has him as throwing a two-seam and a curveball, but I think those are just mis-identified pitches, considering there are only 9 of them total.

A few more balls in play are going to end up being hits, but if Ohlendorf (and Duke) can find a way to miss more bats and keep doing what has gotten them to this point, the regression will not be as painful. Here's hoping, I guess.

For all the (very accurate) talk of the Pirates' starters not being able to miss bats, Ross Ohlendorf just struck out the side in the top of the sixth to help keep the Bucs up 2-1.

Now we're talking.

I will be completely honest here. Nothing, NOTHING, that Dejan has written since spring training has made me more excited than the quote from Pirates' manager John Russell that appeared in today's feature story:

"Tejada swings on a 1-2 count 87 percent of the time if you throw him a changeup," Russell said. "That's not Joe making up a number. That's what the player does."

I haven't even finished reading the story yet; I was so excited that I had to immediately say something about it. Quite frankly, I don't know if this kind of thing was going on during the McClatchy/Littlefield/Tracy years or not, but given my limited understanding of Jim Tracy, I doubt it, and it's exactly the type of analysis the club needs to be successful. Give these guys a simple matchup stat that tells them exactly what they need to do for a certain batter in a certain situation, and it puts them in a good position to be successful.

Chances are that if you throw Tejada a good changeup on a 1-2 count, he's going to swing at it, and he's not going to hit it particularly well. Seems simple enough, right? Well it's just the sort of thing that shows this club might finally be headed in the right direction.

The Duke is dealing out on the west coast. Good to see him bounce back well from Sunday's struggles. Through 4, he's thrown 49 pitches, 34 of which have been strikes. Buccos are up 5-0 in the top of the 5th.

At the Indy game here in Columbus. Indy up 3-2 on a HR from Steve Pearce. Tom Gorzelanny is in the stands working a radar gun.

In other news...

Recent addition Delwyn Young just doubled in his first plate appearance for the North Side Nine.

...and then scored on a single by Nyjer Morgan to give the Pirates a 5-4 lead in the bottom of the sixth.

Counting Counts

Fantastic work once again by Joe Posnanski, this time focusing on the various counts that hitters face, and how it all plays out. Here's a very simple breakdown of what batters can expect in the various counts. Keep in mind that the slash numbers leave out swings and misses, pitches taken, etc.

0-0: .338/.344/.547 (Action Pitch: 1 of 8 AB)

0-1: .317/.326/.485 (Action Pitch: 1 of 11 AB)

1-0: .339/.340/.563 (Action Pitch: 1 of 13 AB)

0-2: .162/.173/.236 (Action Pitch: 1 of 13 AB)

2-0: .351/.351/.625 (Action Pitch: 1 of 37 AB)

1-1: .325/.330/.512 (Action Pitch: 1 of 11 AB)

1-2: .177/.185/.263 (Action Pitch: 1 of 7 AB)

2-1: .337/.338/.554 (Action Pitch: 1 of 18 AB)

3-0: .390/.958/.780 (Action Pitch: 1 of 42 AB)

2-2: .194/.199/.299 (Action Pitch: 1 of 8 AB)

3-1: .355/.691/.638 (Action Pitch: 1 of 20 AB)

3-2: .229/.468/.381 (Action Pitch: 1 of 8 AB)

As you can see from the numbers, getting two strikes on a batter really, really helps the pitcher. Falling behind 3-0 and 3-1 is infinitely more dangerous. I agree with Poz that more batters should be aggressive on a 2-0 count, when the pitcher is doing his darnedest to avoid falling behind 3-0. There's no reason that action pitch frequency shouldn't be higher.

Here is Zach Duke's pitch plot for Sunday's game. As you can see, he had plenty of the usual movement on his stuff, it's just that he couldn't seem to get it in the strike zone. Here's a breakdown of his six innings:

Top 1st (3-0 Braves):
Infante - Started 2-0, got to 2-2, then got a line out to center.
Prado - Started 0-2, then gave up a double to left.
Jones - Started 1-0, then got Prado in a fielder's choice at third.
Anderson - Started 2-0, then 2-1, then 3-1, and gave up a double to left.
Francoeur - Started 2-0, then gave up a single to center scoring Jones and Anderson. Francoeur moved to second on the throw to the plate.
Kotchman - Started 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, then gave up a single scoring Francoeur from second.
Ross: Started 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, then got the strikeout after a foul ball.

Top 2nd (3-0 Braves):
Schafer - Singled on a 2-0 pitch
Vazquez - Started 0-1 on a bunt foul, then 1-1, and sacrificed Schafer to second.
Infante - Started 0-1, then 0-2 on a bunt foul, then popped out on a bunt to the catcher.
Prado - GIDP 4-6-3 on an 0-1 pitch.

Top 3rd (3-0 Braves):
Jones - Singled to center on a 1-0 pitch.
Anderson - Started 1-0, then 1-2, and flied out to right.
Francoeur - Started 0-1, then 1-1, then 1-2, then 2-2, and flied out to center
Kotchman - Started 0-1, then singled to center, and Jones was picked off second making a bad turn.

Top 4th (6-0 Braves):
Ross - Started 1-0, then 1-1, and doubled to deep center
Schafer - Laid down a bunt for a single on the first pitch.
Vazquez - Started 0-1, then sacrificed Ross to third and Schafer to second.
Infante - Started 0-2 and popped out to first.
Prado - Started 1-0, then 1-1, then 2-1, and homered to left-center.
Jones - Flied to center on the first pitch.

Top 5th (6-0 Braves):
Diaz - Singled to center on a 1-0 count.
Francoeur - GIDP 1-4-3 on the first pitch.
Kotchman - Popped to second on the first pitch.

Top 6th (6-0 Braves):
Ross - Struck out swinging on an 0-2 count.
Schafer - Started 1-0, then reached on an infield single to third.
Vazquez - Sacrificed Schafer to second on the first pitch.
Infante - Started 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, then flied out to right.

There's a lot there, but the basic gist of it is that time-honored cliche that Poz's work bears out: Throw strikes, for Pete's sake. I feel bad that Duke had a bad day on his birthday, and I have no idea why he wasn't able to locate in certain innings on Sunday, but in the four innings when he located, he got outs, and in the two innings when he didn't, he gave up runs. Sometimes it's just that simple.

For Now...

I've returned from my intense traveling to both sides of the country, having visited Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland (as well as my hometown of Columbus) all in the same week. I managed to take in three baseball games, two in Pittsburgh and one in Phoenix, and I plan on seeing the Indianapolis Indians take on the Columbus Clippers Thursday and/or Friday, and perhaps Sunday as well. I may hate this sport by the end of the month, but my man-crush on Andrew McCutchen will last forever.

To tide you over before I talk at length about this weekend's games and Zach Duke's inability to throw a first pitch strike, I have a story for you from the incomparable Rich Lederer (of the Baseball Analysts) about how Denny McLain ruined a baseball. Enjoy.

Bang for Your Bucs

I've been on vacation since last Wednesday, so my apologies for not publicly eating crow over the performance of Nyjer Morgan and Freddy Sanchez to start the season, but I'll probably just take a little more time off until the inevitable regression begins.

Anyway, I do have this tidbit for you:

Tom Tango's self-appointed blog post of the day comes from Ben Fry, and you should probably take a look. Looks like Team Neal is doing at least a decent job with your hard-earned dollars spent at PNC Park.

I'll be in attendance for this weekend's games agains the most hated Atlanta Braves, my first of the year. Looks like I'll be seeing Ian Snell and Zach Duke on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, let's hope it's not a disaster.

Jumpin' Jack Flash

The weather outside may be frightful, but an Opening Day come from behind 6-4 victory over the hated St. Louis Cardinals is oh so delightful.

Man, I missed baseball. Nicely done, Jack Wilson. With two outs in the ninth I thought the PBC was done for the day, but it was not to be. Good times.

And so it begins...

John Russell, why do you hate me?

Depending on your opinion of Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss, other than Jack Wilson, who has certainly been tried plenty of times in the past, could you put two worse guys at the top of this lineup?

The three best batters (read: the people who make the least amount of outs) on the team should be in the 1, 2, and 4 spots. By my estimation, those three are probably Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, and Adam LaRoche, until Andy proves otherwise. I get that you don't want to bat one of those three in the leadoff spot, so bump Doumit to fifth and find someone (ANYONE) to get on base in front of McLouth, whom you are now using as the fifth best hitter in the three spot instead of one of the best hitters in the 2 or 4 spot. It's not rocket science, people: Making outs is bad. Not making outs is good.

I get to start using this familiar refrain again: Freddy Sanchez belongs nowhere near the top of the batting order.

Ye gods.

Welcome to 2009

Well, the day we've all been waiting for is finally upon us. It's officially Opening Day, one of my favorite days of the year, and though it's unseasonably cold in Columbus today, I still feel that spring has arrived, and we can begin anew our quest to root for a baseball team that doesn't make us want to pound our collective heads against the limestone walls of PNC Park.

I am still thinking about doing a much longer post on the various projection systems and how they forecast the performance of the now official 25-man roster, but that might perhaps take more time than I have to offer right now, as I am about to head out of town for the next two weeks. I will be taking in the Diamondbacks/Cardinals game at Chase Field a week from today as my first official baseball game this season, followed shortly by my first games at PNC Park on April 18th-19th against the most hated Atlanta Braves. It's going to be good times.

For now, I will give you my version of Sky Kalkman's WAR spreadsheet for this year's Pittsburgh Pirates. You can find an empty version here for you to fill out on your own.

For the batters 2009 wOBA I used Brian Cartwright's Oliver projections, and for the pitchers I used Tom Tango's Marcel projections. I think most of these are on a reasonable target, and the results of the inputs gives you roughly a 73 win team, which is exactly what I had in mind when they announced the 25-man roster. There's some improvement here over last year's model, but not enough to produce a winning season, unless all of the pitchers get substantially better, and the offense finds a way to replace and further augment the missing run production of Bay and Nady. I kind of slacked on the baserunning and defense adjustments; I think the defense will improve somewhere close to league average this year, and baserunning is still something that is tough to quantify. All I know is that Nate McLouth is pretty bad defensively in center field, but is a fantastic base runner.

Anyway, here's the spreadsheet (click for a larger version). Enjoy:

This needs to change.

Please, please, please don't let this be the Opening Day lineup (taken from today's starting nine):

Nyjer Morgan, LF
Freddy Sanchez, 2B
Nate McLouth, CF
Ryan Doumit, C
Adam LaRoche, 1B
Brandon Moss, RF
Andy LaRoche, 3B
Jack Wilson, SS
Paul Maholm, P

The two WORST on base guys at the top of the lineup? I find it extremely hard to believe that Team Neal approves of this batting order. Bearing in mind that the pitching staff should only be marginally better than it was last year (despite what you might hear otherwise from the Joe Kerrigans of the world), why in Roberto's name would you waste more at bats on your least productive hitters?

The prototypical "this is how you win in the National League" crap needs to go if this team is going to be successful. This is not a competitive batting order, plain and simple.

Waiting on Cutch

Anyone who reads this blog regularly has probably already seen this PBC Blog entry by now, or the articles in various other Pirate-related news outlets, but in case you haven't, Andrew McCutchen, along with erstwhile shortstop Brian Bixler, has been reassigned to minor league camp, and will not start the season on the 25-man roster.

Unlike many others (presumably), I have absolutely no problem with this.

First, there's no reason to start his service clock now, when the team will almost assuredly turn in its 17th losing season. If he shows at Indianapolis that he's ready to play every day in the major leagues (something which he did not do last year), then I have no problem bringing him up, especially if Nyjer Morgan turns out to be, well, Nyjer Morgan.

Second, it really won't be long before he's in Pittsburgh, because he's the best defensive center fielder in the organization, and the Pirates were one of if not the worst defensive teams in the majors last year. They need all the help they can get.

Lastly, consider both the Twins' Carlos Gomez and Baltimore's Adam Jones, two high profile prospects who were thrust into every day work last year because their teams didn't really have a better option. Both are going to be very good players; I've mentioned here before that I saw Jones play in Seattle last year and was impressed. But Gomez had all of 157 PA's at AAA before starting in the majors and struggled mightily (though he played stellar CF defense), and Jones struggled through the first half of 2008 despite two full years at AAA before coming to the Orioles in the Bedard trade.

All three of these guys are going to be awesome players, but there's no need to rush McCutchen to the majors to make an impact for a losing team like Dave Littlefield would have done. Let him dominate AAA and see if his power develops, and if it does, let him roam center at PNC and move Nate McLouth over to left, please. Until then, remind yourself that he's entering his Age 22 season, and there's plenty of time left for us to appreciate his work.

Moneyballs

Though I consider Chuck Finder's work to be a little sillier than the fairly straight-forward stylings of our friend Mr. Kovacevic, he has now contributed my favorite article of the spring on hitting coach Don Long's strategy for helping batters keep their eyes on the ball.

Line It Up

So, I've been pondering the Pirates' 2009 lineup for most of the last few days, ever since I read this article from Beyond the Box Score reporting the fine work of Tom Tango, etc. in The Book.

Oddly enough, the P/G ran an article today mentioning how Team Neal is not pleased with the efforts of your supposed leadoff hitter, one Nyjer Morgan, who is perhaps the worst person (2008 Freddy Sanchez not included) to be leading off for this team.

I spent plenty of time last season complaining about Sanchez batting high in the order, despite not being able to a) hit for average, or b) get on base by any other means, so there's no reason to rehash all that. I still think Nate McClouth is better utilized somewhere other than the leadoff spot, but worse sins have been comitted. With John Russell seeming like an "old baseball" guy (though nowhere near as much as Jim Tracy), and Team Neal definitely being among the statistically-saavy front offices in baseball, I don't know how much conflict arises when it comes time to make up the lineup card.

There is no such conflict here, however, so if I were JR, here's how my standard lineup would look:

1: Andy LaRoche: Whatever, judge all you want, but I think LaRoche the Lesser is going to have a much improved year, closer to his minor league nubmers. As noted in the article, leadoff is all about OBP, and with his career .380 OBP in the minors and average power numbers, he is probably the best option.

2. McLouth: None of the projections I've seen have McLouth hitting as many home runs as last year, so he's better suited here than in the #4 spot. If this team had a real leadoff hitter, he would've been in this spot last year (or so I tell myself). It's also worth noting that McLouth only grounded into 5 double plays last year.

3. Brandon Moss/Eric Hinske: I know Hinske's supposed to be a bench player, but I think he's going to end up with considerable playing time. Roughly 15 or so home runs from this part of the order isn't going to make any traditionalists happy, but the better hitters should be in different places.

4. Adam LaRoche: This of course, will not take effect until June. JR is probably better off just leaving this spot empty for the first two months.

5. Ryan Doumit: Some power, decent OBP, better than average slugging percentage. All of those sound appropriate to me for the #5 hole.

6. Nyjer Morgan: Since the last couple spots will be bad-OBP contact hitters, if Nyjer can increase his OBP and better use his speed (i.e. NOT overrun second base on attempted steals), then his run production value is maximized in the six spot.

7. Freddy Sanchez: I know that it does not seem right to have a former batting champion batting seventh in your lineup (unless you're New York or Boston), but after last year, all bets are off with Freddy. This is the spot where he can do the most/least damage, depending on your perspective.

8. Pitcher: I don't want to congratulate Tony LaRussa for anything really, and since I don't think he was reading up on Tangotiger's work before batting the pitcher eighth, I feel like I don't have to. Though the difference in value is pretty small (and probably insignificant), every little bit helps.

9. Jack Wilson: Batting the pitcher eighth and someone at least halfway decent in the last spot of the order speaks to the notion that the batting order should be though of more as a revolving entity and not in the more traditional mode. For all the "Jack Wilson is comfortable in the ninth spot" stories I read last fall, the numbers don't bear that out: .242/.294/.326 in 102 plate appearances, his worst split of any spot in the lineup. Let's hope that changes.

Alright, so there it is. Feel free to rip me a new one now.

Who Am I? Where Am I?

I know, I know. Two weeks off is poor behavior for a baseball blogger during Spring Training, but I keep coming back for more. With only two weeks to go before the opener in St. Louis, I'll try and start ramping up my brilliant insight on all things Pirate baseball.

For today, I will present you with an interview by Baseball Prospectus with your starting center fielder, Nate McLouth. Let's just say that Mr. McLouth has no love for John Dewan and/or Bill James, as well as their fancy new fielding metrics from The Fielding Bible.

Of course, Nate never sounds like a bad guy, but bear in mind that he is a Michigander, and they cannot be trusted. (Go Bucks.)

More Pitch f/x Love

Last year, Joe Sheehan put together some nice work on run values of different pitches by location using pitch f/x data from 2007.

Well, I'm not sure exactly who picked up the torch and ran with it for 2008, but he/she has created a new blog with some prettier, more interesting graphs. I'm fascinated by this stuff, so once again I shall say: Check it out.

I've seen this making the rounds on the usual blogs, so I thought I should share it here for a very important reason:

The Worst Contracts in MLB

Notice one team in particular that's conspicuously absent from this list? That's right it's your Pittsburgh Pirates (along with the Rays, Phillies, Marlins, Braves, and Padres). You probably could not have said that as recently as 2-3 years ago, depending on your opinion of the Jason Kendall contract.

Some will argue that the Pirates' absence from this list has to do with the fact that the Nuttings are generally unwilling to put up enough money to saddle the team with an albatross contract, and I can't really disagree with that. However, I think it does warrant mentioning that Team Neal could have mishandled the McLouth, Doumit, and Maholm negotiations, but whether it was because of the lousy economy or just sound business strategy, they managed to handle themselves pretty well. Just saying.

BA Top 100

Perhaps the most trusted prospect list to come out each year, Baseball America's list of the Top 100 Prospects is out:

BA TOP 100

The usual suspects are there:

12. Pedro Alvarez - 3B (22, ETA: 2009)
9/24: Date he signed with the Pirates—more than a month after the Aug. 15 deadline—after the union's grievance on his behalf.

33. Andrew McCutchen - OF (22, ETA: 2009)
1: International League center fielders with a higher OPS than McCutchen's .770 (Brett Gardner, .836).

75. Jose Tabata - OF (20, ETA: 2010)
.348: Average at Double-A Altoona after being traded from the Yankees in July, or 100 points higher than his average at Double-A Trenton.


I was somewhat encouraged by Alvarez being positioned above Mike Moustakas (Royals) and Buster Posey (Giants), since those guys are pretty big deals, and that Tabata made it in just behind Taylor Teagarden (Rangers), who is the talk of Arlington, though probably more because of trade rumors.

Personally, I'm still the most excited about McCutchen, probably because I feel like I've known the guy longer. Since I live in Columbus, I checked the Clippers' (Cleveland's AAA team) schedule and was delighted that Indianapolis is coming to town in late April. It's also the inaugural season for the Clippers' new stadium, (Neal?) Huntington Park. Anyway, it'll be good to see Cutch patroling CF in person.

(side note: I'm planning two huge posts on the various projection systems and what they have to say about the 2009 performance of your favorite team. Look for those this weekend. I'll let you know in advance that PECOTA was once again unkind to the black and gold.)

Mark McGwire

I have some half-baked thoughts on steroids that I'll save for another time, but I wanted to tip off those of you who don't get SI or read their website regularly (both of those apply to me) to a nice piece by Poz on Mark McGwire and the lingering steroid scandal.

Here's the link.

I can't help but think that this is another example where we all thought we knew something, and then almost four years later, it turns out we were wrong the whole time.

I feel bad for McGwire. For better or for worse, the guy should be in the Hall of Fame, but even if it happens now, it will be cheapened for many by the steroid issue, and cheapened for others because it will most likely be a "sympathy" election after so many years of getting jerked around by the BBWAA.

I hope what Poz heard is right, and that McGwire is reasonably happy with his life these days. The guy deserves better than what he's gotten over the last four years.

Cardboard God: Andy Van Slyke

I don't want to comment on the McLouth deal until at least the terms of the deal are released (or perhaps until he's moved out of center field), but so I can continue to deliver on my recent trend of only posting something on Tuesdays, here's a nice link for you:

Josh Wilker revists the Pirates for the first time in a year by featuring an Andy Van Slyke card (which I had as a kid!):

If you say Pittsburgh Pirates to me I think of a raucous party, Sister Sledge blaring, free-swinging sluggers Al-Olivering line-drive doubles into the gap and speedsters Omar-Morenoing around third and sliding into home safely in a cloud of glittering, vaguely illicit dust, the giddy treble of the disco in the Pirates’ fearsome game supported by the rock-solid morally upright thumping bass of slugging elder statesman Roberto Clemente on one end of the decade and slugging elder statesman Willie Stargell on the other.

In short, I like the Pirates. And not for nothing, but I have been to more than a few major league baseball stadiums and as far as I have seen the only one that incorporates baseball cards into the very structure of their building is the Pirates’ current stadium, which as I recall has baseball cards of former Pirates embedded into the surfaces of walls and/or pillars out in the concourse behind the left-field bleachers.

Pitch Sequencing

Another great article on pitch f/x and pitch sequencing from Josh Kalk over at The Hardball Times.

I found it interesting that the fastball sets up every other pitch, but go read the whole thing so you can appreciate the good work that Josh is doing.

(h/t to Tom Tango for the link)

Who's Left?

This chart, from our friends at Beyond the Box Score, shows the remaining free agent hitters (some of whom have since been snatched up) and their Wins Above Replacement values using the CHONE projection system for both offense and defense. I know it's kind of hard to read the names, but give it a look, and bear in mind that these are the remaining hitters available for the Buccos to snatch up before (or during) spring training, which starts this Saturday.

Not surprisingly, there's a lot there, and there's very little there, all at the same time. In a perfect world, the Buccos would probably sign someone like Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn (though I'd definitely settle for the nice bat and glove work of Orlando Hudson if they had somewhere to put him), but this is definitely not a perfect world.

Leaving out MannyBManny, everyone else on this list is basically a 2 WAR or less performer, which means at best, adding a free agent hitter would only improve the team by roughly two wins. Considering that would cost somewhere between $5-$10 million (depending on how savvy a deal Team Neal can negotiate), and there really isn't a great fit among the players on this list, I wouldn't expect the Buccos to sign any of the moderate-to-big names on this spreadsheet.

High Heat and Curveballs

Sorry for the brief absence; I've been immersed in all things Steeler, but now I'm (almost) fully prepared to jump head-first into the 2009 season, with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp next Friday (2/13).

I was in attendance (naturally) for this year's PirateFest, really just to see what Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington had to say during their Q&A session. I think that was probably the first time I've been impressed while listening to someone from the Pirates' management team explain what the heck is going on with this moribund franchise.

I also have some thoughts on Hinske vs. Doug Mientkiewicz, and the free agent market (how come Ben Sheets doesn't have a job yet?!) , but we'll get to those later.

For now, since my love for pitch f/x is well known, here's a great article from Josh Kalk about Ted Lilly, his lollipop curveball, and when to throw the high heat. Fascinating stuff.

Pirate Prospects

Those of you who are unfamiliar with the work of Keith Law at ESPN.com should avail yourself of the internet and take a prolonged look at his work. It's the time of year to talk about the future, so Keith has once again published his list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball. Also, he produced his annual ranking of the minor league systems for all 30 teams (Buccos are #22, up from last year, and above the Reds, Cubs, and Astros).

The highest ranked Pirate prospect is Andrew McCutchen, who clocks in at #18. Here's Keith's comments (for those of you who didn't click the link already):

Andrew McCutchen has been rushed. Repeat after me: He … has … been … rushed. This isn't a criticism of the current regime in Pittsburgh, as the rushing all took place before Neal Huntington could even get a catalog to pick out new drapes for his office, but they inherited a player who had arrived in Triple-A before his 21st birthday despite posting a .710 OPS in Double-A, a level he reached after the Pirates skipped him right past high-A. He's been rushed, I say. The good thing is that he has survived this hazing and even performed well in several areas, notably his plate discipline. McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn't get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn't hit for the kind of power he's capable of producing. He has great bat speed and has hit for average while making plenty of contact. He's a 65-70 runner but had an uncharacteristically sloppy year as a base stealer; he's a plus glove in center but could use a little work on routes. The power should come -- he's too young for us to assume that it won't -- and the new regime in Pittsburgh has a much better player-development protocol in place.

The other two Pirate prospects on the list are:

#32, Jose Tabata (20 - CF)
#38, Pedro Alvarez (21 - 3B)

Three in the top 40 isn't bad, but that's it. Obviously, this substantiates the commonly-held opinion that the Pirates' system is anything but deep, so there really shouldn't be a surprise here. There are a handful of teams that appear pretty frequently: the Rangers, A's, Rays, Red Sox, and Indians among a couple others, all of which have a good chance to be very competitive this year. People still complain about the Bay and Nady trades, but when big market teams like the Red Sox are maintaining a huge stock of talent in their farm system, the only way for a team like the Pirates to be competitive is to build a stock of similar quality. Sometimes that means you have to trade away (arguably) your best players.

Let's hope the Pirates manage to move up the list next year.

Thank you, Frank.

I assume this was a Coonelly decision, but I don't really care who made it. I'm just glad that they're gone:

The Pirates will no longer be using their alternate red jerseys.

The new alternates will be unveiled at PirateFest this weekend (at which I will be in attendance), so we'll see how they look. Keep your fingers crossed.

More on Blyleven

Rich Lederer does what he does so well in ripping apart Jon Heyman and making the case for Blyleven yet again.

On a side note, I recently moved (again), and I now get to watch a 42" HDTV that doesn't belong to me. One benefit of that is the cable provider carries the MLB network, which allows me to see old games that I'm strangely interested in, but I have to put up with the studio show that includes Heyman as their "insider," along with Harold Reynolds, Joe Magrane, and others. During their HOF discussion over the weekend, where they spouted roughly the same BS that Lederer takes Heyman to task for above, the only thing that kept me from chucking the remote at the brand new TV was that I couldn't decide which idiot at which to aim it.

There has to be a breaking point with this ridiculous stand-off between the sabermetrically-inclined and the "old school" writers, right? How many more times do I have to read Dan Shaughnessy call really intelligent people like Rob Neyer, Keith Law, Tom Tango (and many, many others) "basement dwellers" simply because he disagrees with their conlcusions that are based on statistical evidence instead of anecdotes and hyperbole?

I find it moderately compelling that Jim Rice finished in the Top 5 in MVP voting six different times, and that Blyleven never won a Cy Young and only made two All-Star teams. Why? Because those points are based on actual evidence. Unfortunately, when you look deeper at what actually happened and not someone's opinion of what happened, Rice's candidacy doesn't really hold up, and Blyleven's looks a lot better.

I get the desire to fantasize the game a bit. Baseball is a beautiful and enduring sport that's just as much a part of the last 150 years of this country's history as anything else, but when you start having conversations about who the best players are, given the fact that those players played in different times, different stadia, and against different competition, you had better start looking at the numbers to be able to figure things out with at least some objectivity.

What about Rock, Tram, and Bert?

The verdict is in. Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice have been the only two eligible players elected by the BBWAA to the Hall of Fame for 2009.

Great player and former Pirate Bert Blyleven saw his vote percentage move up a bit (61.9% to 62.7%), but still fell about 75 votes short of the threshold for election.

In an effort to baffle the mind, the BBWAA cast only 81 votes for former Pirate Dave "The Snake" Parker, who racked up 15% of the vote, enough to keep him on the ballot for next year, but not much else. Granted, Rice put up moderately better offensive numbers, but a good chunk of that was in Fenway Park, and Parker was a significantly better fielder.

Anyway, I've answered my own question. Rice played in Boston. Parker played in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for most of his career. Both played the majority of their careers before the heyday of ESPN and cable television, which means that Rice received significantly more exposure, playing on the baseball-crazy East Coast, where a generation of fans (and writers) got to hear of and occasionally see his now legendary feats of strength on the diamond. Outside of perhaps his MVP year, Parker is best remembered for the drug trials.

Now, Jim Rice is "the most feared hitter of his time," despite the fact that while he was playing he rarely got an intentional walk, and he wasn't even the best hitter on his team. Leave it to the BBWAA to make a player better than he actually was 15 years after he hung up his cleats.

Though it does get under my skin somewhat, I don't really mind that Rice is in, what I mind is that more deserving people are left out. Blyleven, Tim Raines, and Alan Trammell deserve to be in the Hall. I'll let people spin their wheels on McGwire for a while, because I do think he'll eventually get in, but I've yet to hear a good argument why the other three are not worthy of induction. If you've got an argument, I'm all ears.

Burrell signs for 2 yrs./$16 million

Peter Bendix hits the nail right on the head: The Rays just signed Pat Burrell to one heck of a deal.

Since Burrell knew he wasn't going to be back with the Phillies after they signed Raul Ibanez to a misguided deal, he probably did the next best thing by signing with the team he played against in the 2008 World Series.

It warrants mentioning that the Pirates need a right-handed power bat in the outfield (with a very good OBP history), and if 2 years at $8 million per year is all that it was going to take, well...

Obviously Burrell took less money to play for a contending team, but you could argue that if he's willing to take 2 years and $16 million from the Rays, the Pirates could've thrown 3 years, $27-$30 million and probably got the job done. Sure, his defense is terrible, but he more than makes up for it with the bat. FanGraphs has him worth $12.6 million last year, so $9-$10 million a year is a significant discount, even to play for such a lousy team. It was at least worth pursuing, if in fact Team Neil never pursued him.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone asks Dejan in the next Q&A whether the Pirates even bothered to give Burrell's agent a call.