Waiting on Cutch

Anyone who reads this blog regularly has probably already seen this PBC Blog entry by now, or the articles in various other Pirate-related news outlets, but in case you haven't, Andrew McCutchen, along with erstwhile shortstop Brian Bixler, has been reassigned to minor league camp, and will not start the season on the 25-man roster.

Unlike many others (presumably), I have absolutely no problem with this.

First, there's no reason to start his service clock now, when the team will almost assuredly turn in its 17th losing season. If he shows at Indianapolis that he's ready to play every day in the major leagues (something which he did not do last year), then I have no problem bringing him up, especially if Nyjer Morgan turns out to be, well, Nyjer Morgan.

Second, it really won't be long before he's in Pittsburgh, because he's the best defensive center fielder in the organization, and the Pirates were one of if not the worst defensive teams in the majors last year. They need all the help they can get.

Lastly, consider both the Twins' Carlos Gomez and Baltimore's Adam Jones, two high profile prospects who were thrust into every day work last year because their teams didn't really have a better option. Both are going to be very good players; I've mentioned here before that I saw Jones play in Seattle last year and was impressed. But Gomez had all of 157 PA's at AAA before starting in the majors and struggled mightily (though he played stellar CF defense), and Jones struggled through the first half of 2008 despite two full years at AAA before coming to the Orioles in the Bedard trade.

All three of these guys are going to be awesome players, but there's no need to rush McCutchen to the majors to make an impact for a losing team like Dave Littlefield would have done. Let him dominate AAA and see if his power develops, and if it does, let him roam center at PNC and move Nate McLouth over to left, please. Until then, remind yourself that he's entering his Age 22 season, and there's plenty of time left for us to appreciate his work.

Moneyballs

Though I consider Chuck Finder's work to be a little sillier than the fairly straight-forward stylings of our friend Mr. Kovacevic, he has now contributed my favorite article of the spring on hitting coach Don Long's strategy for helping batters keep their eyes on the ball.

Line It Up

So, I've been pondering the Pirates' 2009 lineup for most of the last few days, ever since I read this article from Beyond the Box Score reporting the fine work of Tom Tango, etc. in The Book.

Oddly enough, the P/G ran an article today mentioning how Team Neal is not pleased with the efforts of your supposed leadoff hitter, one Nyjer Morgan, who is perhaps the worst person (2008 Freddy Sanchez not included) to be leading off for this team.

I spent plenty of time last season complaining about Sanchez batting high in the order, despite not being able to a) hit for average, or b) get on base by any other means, so there's no reason to rehash all that. I still think Nate McClouth is better utilized somewhere other than the leadoff spot, but worse sins have been comitted. With John Russell seeming like an "old baseball" guy (though nowhere near as much as Jim Tracy), and Team Neal definitely being among the statistically-saavy front offices in baseball, I don't know how much conflict arises when it comes time to make up the lineup card.

There is no such conflict here, however, so if I were JR, here's how my standard lineup would look:

1: Andy LaRoche: Whatever, judge all you want, but I think LaRoche the Lesser is going to have a much improved year, closer to his minor league nubmers. As noted in the article, leadoff is all about OBP, and with his career .380 OBP in the minors and average power numbers, he is probably the best option.

2. McLouth: None of the projections I've seen have McLouth hitting as many home runs as last year, so he's better suited here than in the #4 spot. If this team had a real leadoff hitter, he would've been in this spot last year (or so I tell myself). It's also worth noting that McLouth only grounded into 5 double plays last year.

3. Brandon Moss/Eric Hinske: I know Hinske's supposed to be a bench player, but I think he's going to end up with considerable playing time. Roughly 15 or so home runs from this part of the order isn't going to make any traditionalists happy, but the better hitters should be in different places.

4. Adam LaRoche: This of course, will not take effect until June. JR is probably better off just leaving this spot empty for the first two months.

5. Ryan Doumit: Some power, decent OBP, better than average slugging percentage. All of those sound appropriate to me for the #5 hole.

6. Nyjer Morgan: Since the last couple spots will be bad-OBP contact hitters, if Nyjer can increase his OBP and better use his speed (i.e. NOT overrun second base on attempted steals), then his run production value is maximized in the six spot.

7. Freddy Sanchez: I know that it does not seem right to have a former batting champion batting seventh in your lineup (unless you're New York or Boston), but after last year, all bets are off with Freddy. This is the spot where he can do the most/least damage, depending on your perspective.

8. Pitcher: I don't want to congratulate Tony LaRussa for anything really, and since I don't think he was reading up on Tangotiger's work before batting the pitcher eighth, I feel like I don't have to. Though the difference in value is pretty small (and probably insignificant), every little bit helps.

9. Jack Wilson: Batting the pitcher eighth and someone at least halfway decent in the last spot of the order speaks to the notion that the batting order should be though of more as a revolving entity and not in the more traditional mode. For all the "Jack Wilson is comfortable in the ninth spot" stories I read last fall, the numbers don't bear that out: .242/.294/.326 in 102 plate appearances, his worst split of any spot in the lineup. Let's hope that changes.

Alright, so there it is. Feel free to rip me a new one now.

Who Am I? Where Am I?

I know, I know. Two weeks off is poor behavior for a baseball blogger during Spring Training, but I keep coming back for more. With only two weeks to go before the opener in St. Louis, I'll try and start ramping up my brilliant insight on all things Pirate baseball.

For today, I will present you with an interview by Baseball Prospectus with your starting center fielder, Nate McLouth. Let's just say that Mr. McLouth has no love for John Dewan and/or Bill James, as well as their fancy new fielding metrics from The Fielding Bible.

Of course, Nate never sounds like a bad guy, but bear in mind that he is a Michigander, and they cannot be trusted. (Go Bucks.)

More Pitch f/x Love

Last year, Joe Sheehan put together some nice work on run values of different pitches by location using pitch f/x data from 2007.

Well, I'm not sure exactly who picked up the torch and ran with it for 2008, but he/she has created a new blog with some prettier, more interesting graphs. I'm fascinated by this stuff, so once again I shall say: Check it out.

I've seen this making the rounds on the usual blogs, so I thought I should share it here for a very important reason:

The Worst Contracts in MLB

Notice one team in particular that's conspicuously absent from this list? That's right it's your Pittsburgh Pirates (along with the Rays, Phillies, Marlins, Braves, and Padres). You probably could not have said that as recently as 2-3 years ago, depending on your opinion of the Jason Kendall contract.

Some will argue that the Pirates' absence from this list has to do with the fact that the Nuttings are generally unwilling to put up enough money to saddle the team with an albatross contract, and I can't really disagree with that. However, I think it does warrant mentioning that Team Neal could have mishandled the McLouth, Doumit, and Maholm negotiations, but whether it was because of the lousy economy or just sound business strategy, they managed to handle themselves pretty well. Just saying.