Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Line It Up

So, I've been pondering the Pirates' 2009 lineup for most of the last few days, ever since I read this article from Beyond the Box Score reporting the fine work of Tom Tango, etc. in The Book.

Oddly enough, the P/G ran an article today mentioning how Team Neal is not pleased with the efforts of your supposed leadoff hitter, one Nyjer Morgan, who is perhaps the worst person (2008 Freddy Sanchez not included) to be leading off for this team.

I spent plenty of time last season complaining about Sanchez batting high in the order, despite not being able to a) hit for average, or b) get on base by any other means, so there's no reason to rehash all that. I still think Nate McClouth is better utilized somewhere other than the leadoff spot, but worse sins have been comitted. With John Russell seeming like an "old baseball" guy (though nowhere near as much as Jim Tracy), and Team Neal definitely being among the statistically-saavy front offices in baseball, I don't know how much conflict arises when it comes time to make up the lineup card.

There is no such conflict here, however, so if I were JR, here's how my standard lineup would look:

1: Andy LaRoche: Whatever, judge all you want, but I think LaRoche the Lesser is going to have a much improved year, closer to his minor league nubmers. As noted in the article, leadoff is all about OBP, and with his career .380 OBP in the minors and average power numbers, he is probably the best option.

2. McLouth: None of the projections I've seen have McLouth hitting as many home runs as last year, so he's better suited here than in the #4 spot. If this team had a real leadoff hitter, he would've been in this spot last year (or so I tell myself). It's also worth noting that McLouth only grounded into 5 double plays last year.

3. Brandon Moss/Eric Hinske: I know Hinske's supposed to be a bench player, but I think he's going to end up with considerable playing time. Roughly 15 or so home runs from this part of the order isn't going to make any traditionalists happy, but the better hitters should be in different places.

4. Adam LaRoche: This of course, will not take effect until June. JR is probably better off just leaving this spot empty for the first two months.

5. Ryan Doumit: Some power, decent OBP, better than average slugging percentage. All of those sound appropriate to me for the #5 hole.

6. Nyjer Morgan: Since the last couple spots will be bad-OBP contact hitters, if Nyjer can increase his OBP and better use his speed (i.e. NOT overrun second base on attempted steals), then his run production value is maximized in the six spot.

7. Freddy Sanchez: I know that it does not seem right to have a former batting champion batting seventh in your lineup (unless you're New York or Boston), but after last year, all bets are off with Freddy. This is the spot where he can do the most/least damage, depending on your perspective.

8. Pitcher: I don't want to congratulate Tony LaRussa for anything really, and since I don't think he was reading up on Tangotiger's work before batting the pitcher eighth, I feel like I don't have to. Though the difference in value is pretty small (and probably insignificant), every little bit helps.

9. Jack Wilson: Batting the pitcher eighth and someone at least halfway decent in the last spot of the order speaks to the notion that the batting order should be though of more as a revolving entity and not in the more traditional mode. For all the "Jack Wilson is comfortable in the ninth spot" stories I read last fall, the numbers don't bear that out: .242/.294/.326 in 102 plate appearances, his worst split of any spot in the lineup. Let's hope that changes.

Alright, so there it is. Feel free to rip me a new one now.

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