I am still thinking about doing a much longer post on the various projection systems and how they forecast the performance of the now official 25-man roster, but that might perhaps take more time than I have to offer right now, as I am about to head out of town for the next two weeks. I will be taking in the Diamondbacks/Cardinals game at Chase Field a week from today as my first official baseball game this season, followed shortly by my first games at PNC Park on April 18th-19th against the most hated Atlanta Braves. It's going to be good times.
For now, I will give you my version of Sky Kalkman's WAR spreadsheet for this year's Pittsburgh Pirates. You can find an empty version here for you to fill out on your own.
For the batters 2009 wOBA I used Brian Cartwright's Oliver projections, and for the pitchers I used Tom Tango's Marcel projections. I think most of these are on a reasonable target, and the results of the inputs gives you roughly a 73 win team, which is exactly what I had in mind when they announced the 25-man roster. There's some improvement here over last year's model, but not enough to produce a winning season, unless all of the pitchers get substantially better, and the offense finds a way to replace and further augment the missing run production of Bay and Nady. I kind of slacked on the baserunning and defense adjustments; I think the defense will improve somewhere close to league average this year, and baserunning is still something that is tough to quantify. All I know is that Nate McLouth is pretty bad defensively in center field, but is a fantastic base runner.
Anyway, here's the spreadsheet (click for a larger version). Enjoy:
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