The New-Look Buccos

There's going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth if the reported deal of Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan goes through, particularly from the ill-informed. Milledge deserves more than the time I have to give him right now, but as for Hanrahan, he's not nearly as bad as his stats look.

First, go here to see his current year and career statistics.

The first thing other than the 7.71 ERA that jumps out at me is his insane .451 BABIP, way off his career norms, and the norm for any pitcher. As you may already know from my earlier post on this subject, BABIP for pitchers tends to fall very close to .300. Hanrahan's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.56 for the year, actually better than last year when his ERA was 3.95.

What that tells you is that he's had some very bad luck, and his numbers should return to a much reasonable level in the second half of the season. ZiPS has him going with a 3.80 ERA the rest of the way, with 47 K's in 45 IP. His K/9 numbers have been very good since being promoted, and he's cutting down on his BB/9 as well as his HR/9. The guy is a good reliever, he just hasn't had the fortune to show it yet.