Oh, Andrew!

(WPA Graph: FanGraphs)

Regardles of the exploits of The Legend, Garrett Jones, it's becoming abundantly clear that the best player on this Pirates team is Andrew McCutchen. He started very well, and has actually gotten better as the year has progressed. We've all been down this road with Pirate center fielders before, but I am extremely bullish on McCutchen's potential at this point, and would put his ceiling at somewhere around (if not slightly north of) Grady Sizemore or Carl Crawford, two All-Star center fielders. Then again, we all know what the floor looks like too. (See Hermansen, Chad.)

All that being said, let me show you some splits from Cutch's inaugural campaign, and please bear in mind that these all come with "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE" at the top:

First Half (166 PA): .292/.343/.455, with a .350 BABIP

Second Half (152 PA): .281/.375/.508, with a .288 BABIP

Last 21 Games (92 PA): .320/.424/.613, with a .276 BABIP

RISP (63 PA): .354/.460/.688, with 4 HR and 31 RBI

2 outs, RISP (29 PA): .261/.414/.565, with 2 HR and 10 RBI

High Leverage (49 PA): .326/.367/.535, with 1 HR and 19 RBI

This is at a premium defensive position, while playing well above average defense (10.4 UZR/150), 3rd best in the National League in center field among players with at least 500 innings there.

So it's justified that my heart flutters every time I hear his name, right?

I'm just saying...

As of last night's game, according to FanGraphs Andrew McCutchen has been worth 2.3 WAR (wins above replacement level) in 293 plate appearances over his first two and a half months as a major league player at the tender age of 22. His current wOBA of .359 is best among rookies with at least 250 PA.

If we assume that over a full year that Cutch would get about 700 PA, which is pretty reasonable, that equates to 5.49 WAR over a full season. Raise that number to 750 PA, which is probably high end, but reachable for a leadoff hitter, and that number jumps to 5.89 WAR.

That range of 5.49 - 5.89 would easily put him in the Top 20 position players in the National League, right up there with guys like Jimmy Rollins (5.3 WAR in 2008), Brian McCann (5.8 WAR in 2008), and Jose Reyes (5.9 WAR in 2008). As a rookie.

I don't want to hype him up too much, too soon, but this is not Chad Hermansen, J.J. Davis, or Tike Redman. This guy might just very well be the real *bleeping* deal.

"Ay Dios Mio!"

As anyone who has recently watched the Pittsburgh Pirates play their specific brand of baseball can attest, there has been an overabundance of terrible play in pretty much every aspect of the game since the July 31 trading deadline. The only person keeping the offense afloat is the legendary Andrew McCutchen, who continues to play at a level that does not correspond with his service time. Here's the stats for your starters and relevant bench players in the month of August:

Garrett Jones (60 PA): .259/.333/.444, 6 BB, 18 (!) K, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Andrew McCutchen (57 PA): .304/.404/.630, 9 BB, 5 K, 4 HR, 9 RBI [with a .256 (!) BABIP]

Lastings Milledge (56 PA): .212/.255/.269, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 4 RBI

Ronny Cedeno (55 PA): .275/.315/.392, 2 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Delwyn Young (53 PA): .275/.302/.412, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 8 RBI

Andy LaRoche (50 PA): .238/.360/.381, 7 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Ryan Doumit (44 PA): .186/.205/.326, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Steve Pearce (37 PA): .258/.378/.419, 6 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Brandon Moss (33 PA): .200/.273/.200, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 2 RBI

Ramon Vazquez (19 PA): .333/.474/.467, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 0 RBI


So there's the damage, and it's certainly damaging. I'd chalk it up to a bad month, but the team also hit .225/.252/.372 in July while Garrett Jones was doing his Pujols impression with a .310/.361/.700 (!!!) slash line, including 10 HR and 17 RBI. A few thoughts:

1. When is the Brandon Moss experiment going to be over? You've seen what he's hitting in August; he hit .185/.302/.407 in July, with a half-decent .281/.339/.386 in June, and another terrible .203/.254/.271 in April. Leave out his one good month of numbers in May, and the guy is having a really dreadful season with almost non-existent power. It may be time to accept that he's just not a major league player.

2. For all the people I've seen complain about Neal Huntington expecting Garrett Jones to come back to earth, it looks like that might finally be happening. I would expect to see Steve Pearce getting more PA at first base and perhaps in RF if Jeff Clement demonstrates any ability to play first base before getting a September call-up.

3. Ryan Doumit has looked bad at times, to be sure, but his .194 BABIP in August is well off his career line of .301, so I would expect some improvement from him in the near future. To my completely untrained eye, he doesn't look at all comfortable at the plate, which is causing him to hit more ground balls and fly balls and less line drives. His LD rate is 12% right now, well off his 2007 (20%) and 2008 (23%) numbers. Hopefully things will turn around for him in the last six weeks of the season.


What else can be said about how bad this team is playing right now? It really has been a dreadful three weeks, and even longer if you leave out the stylings of McCutchen and Jones (July version). I'll do my best to repeat this process with the pitching staff tomorrow, which should be even more gut-wrenching. I know we're all looking forward to it.

Realignment

Tom Tango's post on getting rid of our geographical tendencies would be good for baseball. I've long argued against the most recent re-alignment that sent the Pirates to the NL Central where they have no real rivalries (besides, perhaps, the budding feud between the Bucs and the Beer Makers).

#2 on Tom's post argues for a 4-6-8-12 divisional system along market-based lines where the top two teams from each division advance to an eight team playoff, which got my mind grapes working on how I would realign the current structure in baseball to accomodate that. I decided on a 6-6-8-10 system instead of 4-6-8-12, since that seemed to work a little better, and though I toyed with the idea of also incorporating a promotion/relegation system, I couldn't find a sensible way to make it work.

Anyway, here is the breakdown:

Top Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
New York Mets
New York Yankees

Second Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers

Third Tier (8 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Florida Marlins
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals

Fourth Tier (10 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
Oakland A's
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays


I'd imagine it would get a little hairy with the travel arrangements going from Seattle to Miami a few times a year, but you could schedule it so there's a swing through the DC area before/after to play the Nats and O's. This is not too far from the current conference system in the NCAA, albeit on a much larger scale. The biggest money teams (or conferences) end up meeting in the playoffs more, just like we have right now, and your Pittsburgh Pirates toil away in baseball's version of the WAC.

Theoretically, this makes the Pirates' chance of making the playoffs worse (20% instead of just under 25%), but in actuality it might be better given the constant competition with the least competitive teams. Anyway, just some food for thought, since it has no chance of ever becoming reality any time soon.