InClemente Weather

The End of the Beginning

2010-04-04T19:59:00.003-05:00

Not that it should be a surprise to any of you (I assume there are many who still follow this site), but I have closed up shop here, mostly for personal reasons relating to the time management issues that come with both working and going to school full-time.

There is good news, however. I've decided to reboot my blogging effort, this time over at Wordpress: http://inclementeweather.wordpress.com/. Though I will still write from a saber-friendly perspective, I'm going to try to stop acting like I really understand all that stuff, and write from more of a personal perspective.

Feel free to add me to your RSS feeds at the new site. Enjoy the season!

Oh, Andrew!

2009-08-26T12:47:00.004-05:00

(WPA Graph: FanGraphs)

Regardles of the exploits of The Legend, Garrett Jones, it's becoming abundantly clear that the best player on this Pirates team is Andrew McCutchen. He started very well, and has actually gotten better as the year has progressed. We've all been down this road with Pirate center fielders before, but I am extremely bullish on McCutchen's potential at this point, and would put his ceiling at somewhere around (if not slightly north of) Grady Sizemore or Carl Crawford, two All-Star center fielders. Then again, we all know what the floor looks like too. (See Hermansen, Chad.)

All that being said, let me show you some splits from Cutch's inaugural campaign, and please bear in mind that these all come with "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE" at the top:

First Half (166 PA): .292/.343/.455, with a .350 BABIP

Second Half (152 PA): .281/.375/.508, with a .288 BABIP

Last 21 Games (92 PA): .320/.424/.613, with a .276 BABIP

RISP (63 PA): .354/.460/.688, with 4 HR and 31 RBI

2 outs, RISP (29 PA): .261/.414/.565, with 2 HR and 10 RBI

High Leverage (49 PA): .326/.367/.535, with 1 HR and 19 RBI

This is at a premium defensive position, while playing well above average defense (10.4 UZR/150), 3rd best in the National League in center field among players with at least 500 innings there.

So it's justified that my heart flutters every time I hear his name, right?

I'm just saying...

2009-08-19T09:23:00.004-05:00

As of last night's game, according to FanGraphs Andrew McCutchen has been worth 2.3 WAR (wins above replacement level) in 293 plate appearances over his first two and a half months as a major league player at the tender age of 22. His current wOBA of .359 is best among rookies with at least 250 PA.

If we assume that over a full year that Cutch would get about 700 PA, which is pretty reasonable, that equates to 5.49 WAR over a full season. Raise that number to 750 PA, which is probably high end, but reachable for a leadoff hitter, and that number jumps to 5.89 WAR.

That range of 5.49 - 5.89 would easily put him in the Top 20 position players in the National League, right up there with guys like Jimmy Rollins (5.3 WAR in 2008), Brian McCann (5.8 WAR in 2008), and Jose Reyes (5.9 WAR in 2008). As a rookie.

I don't want to hype him up too much, too soon, but this is not Chad Hermansen, J.J. Davis, or Tike Redman. This guy might just very well be the real *bleeping* deal.

"Ay Dios Mio!"

2009-08-17T11:21:00.003-05:00

As anyone who has recently watched the Pittsburgh Pirates play their specific brand of baseball can attest, there has been an overabundance of terrible play in pretty much every aspect of the game since the July 31 trading deadline. The only person keeping the offense afloat is the legendary Andrew McCutchen, who continues to play at a level that does not correspond with his service time. Here's the stats for your starters and relevant bench players in the month of August:

Garrett Jones (60 PA): .259/.333/.444, 6 BB, 18 (!) K, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Andrew McCutchen (57 PA): .304/.404/.630, 9 BB, 5 K, 4 HR, 9 RBI [with a .256 (!) BABIP]

Lastings Milledge (56 PA): .212/.255/.269, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 4 RBI

Ronny Cedeno (55 PA): .275/.315/.392, 2 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Delwyn Young (53 PA): .275/.302/.412, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 8 RBI

Andy LaRoche (50 PA): .238/.360/.381, 7 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Ryan Doumit (44 PA): .186/.205/.326, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Steve Pearce (37 PA): .258/.378/.419, 6 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Brandon Moss (33 PA): .200/.273/.200, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 2 RBI

Ramon Vazquez (19 PA): .333/.474/.467, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 0 RBI

So there's the damage, and it's certainly damaging. I'd chalk it up to a bad month, but the team also hit .225/.252/.372 in July while Garrett Jones was doing his Pujols impression with a .310/.361/.700 (!!!) slash line, including 10 HR and 17 RBI. A few thoughts:

1. When is the Brandon Moss experiment going to be over? You've seen what he's hitting in August; he hit .185/.302/.407 in July, with a half-decent .281/.339/.386 in June, and another terrible .203/.254/.271 in April. Leave out his one good month of numbers in May, and the guy is having a really dreadful season with almost non-existent power. It may be time to accept that he's just not a major league player.

2. For all the people I've seen complain about Neal Huntington expecting Garrett Jones to come back to earth, it looks like that might finally be happening. I would expect to see Steve Pearce getting more PA at first base and perhaps in RF if Jeff Clement demonstrates any ability to play first base before getting a September call-up.

3. Ryan Doumit has looked bad at times, to be sure, but his .194 BABIP in August is well off his career line of .301, so I would expect some improvement from him in the near future. To my completely untrained eye, he doesn't look at all comfortable at the plate, which is causing him to hit more ground balls and fly balls and less line drives. His LD rate is 12% right now, well off his 2007 (20%) and 2008 (23%) numbers. Hopefully things will turn around for him in the last six weeks of the season.

What else can be said about how bad this team is playing right now? It really has been a dreadful three weeks, and even longer if you leave out the stylings of McCutchen and Jones (July version). I'll do my best to repeat this process with the pitching staff tomorrow, which should be even more gut-wrenching. I know we're all looking forward to it.

Realignment

2009-08-11T13:52:00.004-05:00

Tom Tango's post on getting rid of our geographical tendencies would be good for baseball. I've long argued against the most recent re-alignment that sent the Pirates to the NL Central where they have no real rivalries (besides, perhaps, the budding feud between the Bucs and the Beer Makers).

#2 on Tom's post argues for a 4-6-8-12 divisional system along market-based lines where the top two teams from each division advance to an eight team playoff, which got my mind grapes working on how I would realign the current structure in baseball to accomodate that. I decided on a 6-6-8-10 system instead of 4-6-8-12, since that seemed to work a little better, and though I toyed with the idea of also incorporating a promotion/relegation system, I couldn't find a sensible way to make it work.

Anyway, here is the breakdown:

Top Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
New York Mets
New York Yankees

Second Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers

Third Tier (8 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Florida Marlins
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals

Fourth Tier (10 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
Oakland A's
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays

I'd imagine it would get a little hairy with the travel arrangements going from Seattle to Miami a few times a year, but you could schedule it so there's a swing through the DC area before/after to play the Nats and O's. This is not too far from the current conference system in the NCAA, albeit on a much larger scale. The biggest money teams (or conferences) end up meeting in the playoffs more, just like we have right now, and your Pittsburgh Pirates toil away in baseball's version of the WAC.

Theoretically, this makes the Pirates' chance of making the playoffs worse (20% instead of just under 25%), but in actuality it might be better given the constant competition with the least competitive teams. Anyway, just some food for thought, since it has no chance of ever becoming reality any time soon.

Send Me on My Way

2009-07-31T09:20:00.003-05:00

I'm trying to get back into regularly posting; we'll see how that goes. For now, R.J. Anderson over at the invaluable Fangraphs has some quick thoughts on the Grabow/Gorzelanny trade.

Money quote:

"Back to the Pirates trades as a whole, I ran the math for service time. Without including 2009’s service time, the Pirates have traded 28 years worth of team control time for 95 years worth. Obviously not every player acquired is going to reach the majors or be attractive enough to keep through their first six years, but wow, talk about adding some depth."

Say what you will about Neal Hungtington trading away half the 25-man roster over the last two months, but you can't deny he's stuck to his strategy religiously over the last two years.

The New-Look Buccos

2009-06-30T13:58:00.002-05:00

There's going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth if the reported deal of Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan goes through, particularly from the ill-informed. Milledge deserves more than the time I have to give him right now, but as for Hanrahan, he's not nearly as bad as his stats look.

First, go here to see his current year and career statistics.

The first thing other than the 7.71 ERA that jumps out at me is his insane .451 BABIP, way off his career norms, and the norm for any pitcher. As you may already know from my earlier post on this subject, BABIP for pitchers tends to fall very close to .300. Hanrahan's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.56 for the year, actually better than last year when his ERA was 3.95.

What that tells you is that he's had some very bad luck, and his numbers should return to a much reasonable level in the second half of the season. ZiPS has him going with a 3.80 ERA the rest of the way, with 47 K's in 45 IP. His K/9 numbers have been very good since being promoted, and he's cutting down on his BB/9 as well as his HR/9. The guy is a good reliever, he just hasn't had the fortune to show it yet.

More Tony Sanchez

2009-06-25T10:42:00.004-05:00

Erik Manning over at the invaluable FanGraphs has a solidly-reasoned take on the Pirates selecting Tony Sanchez with the fourth selection of this year's draft. Money portion:

So what sort of a big league future do scouts envision for Sanchez? In a nutshell, they see a defense-first catcher with slightly above average hitting skills. Being a catcher is about as physically and mentally demanding job as you can imagine, making them harder to come by. That’s why they get a +12.5 run adjustment when figuring their WAR. And most catchers really suck at hitting; the average regular catcher posted a .315 wOBA last year. Say Sanchez meets expectations by being good for a .320 wOBA and half a win on defense every season. We’re talking about a 2, 2 ½ win per season player. Is that really so awful?

After playing it safe with their highest and most expensive pick, Pittsburgh then loaded up on some high-upside arms, including some potentially tough to sign players. Seems to me Huntington executed a well-laid out plan. Play it safe first with a college position player, then load up on pitching when the distinct advantages disappear.

I realize that it's difficult for the casual fan to appreciate the logic behind taking a player with marketable skills that are likely to be preserved, despite the fact that the player in question does not have the best potential or "upside," highest ceiling, whatever at the spot he was taken. However, particularly if the Pirates invest a lot of money in Miguel Angel Sano, this is precisely the draft strategy that makes sense for Team Neal.

2.5 WAR a year is nothing to shake a stick at, particularly if you're strong at other positions. Just keep that in mind.

2009-06-17T19:55:00.001-05:00

Andrew McCutchen has just hit his first career major league home run off the Twins' Francisco Liriano in the top of the third with Jack Wilson on base to put the Pirates up 2-0.

More Draft Feedback

2009-06-10T23:42:00.002-05:00

More from Keith Law (ESPN Insiders only) on the Pirates' work today in rounds 4-30 of the first year player draft:

Pittsburgh's selection of Tony Sanchez at No. 4 overall on Tuesday was the most controversial pick of the day, but the Pirates did do one thing they promised, taking some tough-sign high school pitchers on Wednesday. Their philosophy is that high school arms are so volatile that paying premium prices in the first round is a poor strategy, and that the value of that first pick (when you might get a premium bat or college arm) is too high to surrender, so try to stockpile young arms in later rounds. Whether Sanchez was the best pick for slot is another question -- I don't think he was -- but the idea of adding young arms who fell due to signability reasons is a sound one, and they added four good ones, two from my top 100 in Jordan Cooper and Zach Von Rosenburg and two who would have ranked in the next 50 or so players in Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson. Stevenson and Cooper both looked like top-two-round picks last summer, but neither had a good spring, with Stephenson losing a little velocity and Cooper pitching very inconsistently until late in the season. If the Pirates sign three of those four kids, it's a great draft, and if they sign two, it's still a good one.

Also, John Perrotto (a name you should have known before his days at piratesreport.com) has some thoughts that roughly echo KLaw.

Some Draft (and other) Thoughts

2009-06-10T10:43:00.004-05:00

Before everyone goes all "Same old Pirates" on you, let's consider for a second that Tony Sanchez is universally considered to be the best college catcher in an admittedly much weaker draft than last year, and someone who by all accounts should contribute at the major league level within three years. This is not a situation where the Pirates passed up someone like super-mega-phenom Matt Wieters with a pick like Danny Moskos. They chose a bona fide prospect at a position higher than he probably should have gone. Keith Law's thoughts are (as usual) pretty accurate on this matter.

There's also some criticism being leveled by various sources regarding the Pirates being constrained by budgetary concerns, and wanting to conserve some money on their first round pick (again, in an admittedly weak draft), so that they can spend more money to sign other picks. This would seem to me to be sound business strategy, since the Pirates are short on minor league talent, and would do well by themselves to try and sign as many of their draftees as possible. However, it seems as though many fail to recognize the fact that the Pittsburgh are in fact a business venture. EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL HAS A DRAFT BUDGET. I believe the Pirates spent more money last year in the draft than just about every other team, yet you still hear the same complaining that the club doesn't want to open its checkbook even before the draft and signing period are over. Can we at least wait to see what happens before we pass judgment? Please?

Part of my whining here stems back to the McLouth trade, so I should probably be a little more open about my motivation here: I'm sick of the constant complaining about the Pirates. I've been a fan of this team as long as I've been alive. I hated Dave Littlefield as much as the rest of you, and I've watched as my favorite baseball team was basically bludgeoned to death over the last decade and a half just as much as you have. I get why the vast majority of the people who follow this team are frustrated, and I get that there is a certain "guilty until proven innocent" attitude that they take with the front office as a de facto position, but the constant negativity and rushing to judgment by this fan base is, quite frankly, maddening.

Pittsburgh is a spoiled sports city. I say this as someone who has vociferously and unwaveringly supported the Steelers, Penguins, and Pirates for my entire life, despite the fact that I haven't lived in Pittsburgh since I was a small child. I've supported them in Columbus, for four years while I went to school in (of all places) Cleveland, and while I was wandering in the great Southwest. One thing has never changed about Pittsburgh fans: They feel that winning every game, every year is their birthright. They take losing as badly as any fanbase, and the current situtation of the Pirates has compounded that frustration to almost unimaginable levels. What it's created is an angry, pessimistic, almost wholly negative group of followers for something that is supposed to be an enjoyable diversion from the things that really matter.

After 16 years of futility, the fans of the Pirates are ready to criticize anything that doesn't produce immediate positive results. On a certain level I understand that, as I want to be in attendance for playoff games at PNC Park before I get my first Social Security check, but baseball is not the NFL or the NHL. Developing talent takes years, not just one training camp. Sometimes judging these decisions immediately is obvious, like Moskos over Wieters, but that does not apply to the McLouth/Nady/Bay trades, and it certainly doesn't apply to Tony Sanchez.

Personally, I think Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have earned at least a little bit of trust in their first (almost) two years on the job. Can we please put the torches and pitchforks away for a little while?

2009-06-09T17:32:00.002-05:00

The pick is officially Jorge "Tony" Sanchez, the catcher from Boston College. Great defense, and considered to be the best college catcher in the draft. Hit over .300 with an OPS over 1.000, but the strength of his bat is the concern. If he can hit, he should be on a fast track to the majors.

Didn't see that coming, did you?

2009-06-04T10:14:00.002-05:00

Well, Team Neal pulled a fast one on us yet again, trading starting center fielder Nate McLouth to the Braves for three prospects: AAA pitcher Charlie Morton, AA outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, and high-A pitcher Jeff Locke. Replacing McLouth will be highly-touted prospect Andrew McCutchen, who will make his debut in about an hour against the Mets at PNC Park. McLouth was signed through the next three years for just under $16 million, so this couldn't really be construed as a salary dump; at least from the perspective of the Pirates' front office, this move was strictly baseball-related.

And you know what? I agree with it. As Keith Law tweeted, from 6/1/08 through 6/1/09, McLouth has hit .256/.327/.447 in 630 PA. That's basically a full season's worth of mediocre performance. I realize he's hit 9 HR this year, and was second on the team with 0.68 WPA/LI (behind...gasp...Freddy Sanchez), but that slash line does not justify the Bucs keeping him throughout the rest of his contract. Nate came out of the gates really fast last year, and didn't play nearly as well down the stretch. Nyjer Morgan's defense has helped McLouth look much better (giving up only 1 run in the field for every 6 he contributes with the bat, as opposed to 1 for 2), but he is still a defensive liability without a good LF next to him. The bottom line is that his current performance is much closer to his true talent level, and at 27, he has a lot less use to the club than three good prospects who each have a higher ceiling.

Of course, Nate's departure also gives us the opportunity to see what kind of asset the club has in Andrew McCutchen. I'm sure you've read the party line that said McCutchen would play when he's "ready," but apparently what that really meant was "as soon as we trade McLouth." My unabashed appreciation for McCutchen has been documented here and elsewhere, so I won't go crazy, but just let me say that I thought about calling off work today so I could make the three hour drive to be in Pittsburgh for the game (which I did Tuesday night to see Santana). McCutchen's current line of .303/.361/.493 shows he's about as ready as he's going to be, and at 22, I'm tempted to say the sky's the limit with him. Can you tell I'm excited?

It's a tough move to swallow on June 3rd, particularly because the Pirates' pythagorean record is 26-26, meaning they've lost a couple games they shouldn't have (and would probably get back later), but there's no way this team is jumping all four or even three of the Milwaukee-St. Louis-Cincinnati-Chicago group currently blocking them in the standings. It might mean the difference between finishing with 73 and 76 wins to make this deal now, but who really cares about that? In the end, I think this trade will be looked upon quite favorably.

2009-06-03T19:47:00.001-05:00

Huntington on MLB Network now defending trade. He says Charlie Morton is not far away, and all three are potentially above-average major leaguers. Mentions Hernandez, Morgan, and McCutchen as a potentially great defensive outfield.

Overreact Much?

2009-05-28T09:27:00.002-05:00

From Dejan's weekly Q&A session in the PG:

Q: Why would a manager of a Major League Baseball team -- the Pittsburgh Pirates -- refuse a team invitation to attend a private tour and meeting with the President of the U.S.? I understand that James Harrison of the Steelers is standing his ground. But John Russell is the manager of a team. Should he not be there as part of the team? I say fire him for insubordination of the Pirates team and as a representative of the city of Pittsburgh.

Kathleen Twele of Elizabeth

KOVACEVIC: There is a significant difference between being invited to the White House and asking for a tour. The Pirates, hardly a reigning champion, did the latter. And never was President Obama expected to be part of that tour, so meeting him was not "refused," as you put it. Some of the Pirates wanted to see the White House. Some did not.

Can't you hear "The Battle Hymn of the Republic" in the background as you read that? I love the Steelers just as much as the next guy, but I find it very fitting of Pittsburghers that a Steeler (especially one who is Defensive Player of the Year) gets a free pass for skipping out on a meeting with the POTUS, while the manager of the Pirates has to be fired for skipping a tour that the President was never going to attend. Every village has its idiots, I guess.

Mr. Wonderful

2009-05-14T12:44:00.005-05:00

Not to steal a nickname from our friends over at Mondesi's House, but Pirates' starter Ross Ohlendorf has looked pretty sterling in the majority of his outings this season, including another fine effort last night against the Cardinals in front of the PNC Park faithful. He surrendered only one run on two hits in six innings while getting 5 strikeouts and 0 walks. The run came on a home run by Skip Schumaker; the only blemish on a pretty strong pitching performance.

So what is the secret to Mr. Ohlendorf's success? Well, a huge part of it, as much as it pains me to admit, is his .246 BABIP which is way off the normal .300 or so for pitchers. You may have read Dejan mention this a couple times in his articles, but the Buccos have benefited from an inordinate number of balls in play being turned into outs. Part of that is improved defense, but most of it is just good luck.

To give you some perspective, Greg Maddux's career BABIP is .286. Pedro Martinez's is .282. Their best seasons were .246 and .237 respectively, when each was at his peak. I by no means think that any of the Pirates' starters have that kind of year in them, so I think Ohlendorf and Zach Duke, who is at .265 are both due for a regression to the mean in the very near future.

Part of Ohlendorf's success (if I can play pitching coach here for a second), is that all his pitches are coming from roughly the same release point, as last night's graph shows here, and he's changing speed's effectively, as you can see here. Though his stuff may not have a lot of snap to it, the ability to change speeds between a 91-92 mph fastball and a 81-82 mph change and slider will help you keep hitters off balance.

Also, Ohlendorf's change and slider are averaging about the same speed, but as you can see below, their break is very different. Pitch f/x actually has him as throwing a two-seam and a curveball, but I think those are just mis-identified pitches, considering there are only 9 of them total.

A few more balls in play are going to end up being hits, but if Ohlendorf (and Duke) can find a way to miss more bats and keep doing what has gotten them to this point, the regression will not be as painful. Here's hoping, I guess.

2009-05-13T19:36:00.001-05:00

For all the (very accurate) talk of the Pirates' starters not being able to miss bats, Ross Ohlendorf just struck out the side in the top of the sixth to help keep the Bucs up 2-1.

Now we're talking.

2009-05-01T10:09:00.003-05:00

I will be completely honest here. Nothing, NOTHING, that Dejan has written since spring training has made me more excited than the quote from Pirates' manager John Russell that appeared in today's feature story:

"Tejada swings on a 1-2 count 87 percent of the time if you throw him a changeup," Russell said. "That's not Joe making up a number. That's what the player does."

I haven't even finished reading the story yet; I was so excited that I had to immediately say something about it. Quite frankly, I don't know if this kind of thing was going on during the McClatchy/Littlefield/Tracy years or not, but given my limited understanding of Jim Tracy, I doubt it, and it's exactly the type of analysis the club needs to be successful. Give these guys a simple matchup stat that tells them exactly what they need to do for a certain batter in a certain situation, and it puts them in a good position to be successful.

Chances are that if you throw Tejada a good changeup on a 1-2 count, he's going to swing at it, and he's not going to hit it particularly well. Seems simple enough, right? Well it's just the sort of thing that shows this club might finally be headed in the right direction.

2009-04-25T22:13:00.001-05:00

The Duke is dealing out on the west coast. Good to see him bounce back well from Sunday's struggles. Through 4, he's thrown 49 pitches, 34 of which have been strikes. Buccos are up 5-0 in the top of the 5th.

2009-04-23T18:04:00.001-05:00

At the Indy game here in Columbus. Indy up 3-2 on a HR from Steve Pearce. Tom Gorzelanny is in the stands working a radar gun.

In other news...

2009-04-22T13:28:00.002-05:00

Recent addition Delwyn Young just doubled in his first plate appearance for the North Side Nine.

...and then scored on a single by Nyjer Morgan to give the Pirates a 5-4 lead in the bottom of the sixth.

Counting Counts

2009-04-22T10:07:00.003-05:00

Fantastic work once again by Joe Posnanski, this time focusing on the various counts that hitters face, and how it all plays out. Here's a very simple breakdown of what batters can expect in the various counts. Keep in mind that the slash numbers leave out swings and misses, pitches taken, etc.

0-0: .338/.344/.547 (Action Pitch: 1 of 8 AB)

0-1: .317/.326/.485 (Action Pitch: 1 of 11 AB)

1-0: .339/.340/.563 (Action Pitch: 1 of 13 AB)

0-2: .162/.173/.236 (Action Pitch: 1 of 13 AB)

2-0: .351/.351/.625 (Action Pitch: 1 of 37 AB)

1-1: .325/.330/.512 (Action Pitch: 1 of 11 AB)

1-2: .177/.185/.263 (Action Pitch: 1 of 7 AB)

2-1: .337/.338/.554 (Action Pitch: 1 of 18 AB)

3-0: .390/.958/.780 (Action Pitch: 1 of 42 AB)

2-2: .194/.199/.299 (Action Pitch: 1 of 8 AB)

3-1: .355/.691/.638 (Action Pitch: 1 of 20 AB)

3-2: .229/.468/.381 (Action Pitch: 1 of 8 AB)

As you can see from the numbers, getting two strikes on a batter really, really helps the pitcher. Falling behind 3-0 and 3-1 is infinitely more dangerous. I agree with Poz that more batters should be aggressive on a 2-0 count, when the pitcher is doing his darnedest to avoid falling behind 3-0. There's no reason that action pitch frequency shouldn't be higher.

Here is Zach Duke's pitch plot for Sunday's game. As you can see, he had plenty of the usual movement on his stuff, it's just that he couldn't seem to get it in the strike zone. Here's a breakdown of his six innings:

Top 1st (3-0 Braves):
Infante - Started 2-0, got to 2-2, then got a line out to center.
Prado - Started 0-2, then gave up a double to left.
Jones - Started 1-0, then got Prado in a fielder's choice at third.
Anderson - Started 2-0, then 2-1, then 3-1, and gave up a double to left.
Francoeur - Started 2-0, then gave up a single to center scoring Jones and Anderson. Francoeur moved to second on the throw to the plate.
Kotchman - Started 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, then gave up a single scoring Francoeur from second.
Ross: Started 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, then got the strikeout after a foul ball.

Top 2nd (3-0 Braves):
Schafer - Singled on a 2-0 pitch
Vazquez - Started 0-1 on a bunt foul, then 1-1, and sacrificed Schafer to second.
Infante - Started 0-1, then 0-2 on a bunt foul, then popped out on a bunt to the catcher.
Prado - GIDP 4-6-3 on an 0-1 pitch.

Top 3rd (3-0 Braves):
Jones - Singled to center on a 1-0 pitch.
Anderson - Started 1-0, then 1-2, and flied out to right.
Francoeur - Started 0-1, then 1-1, then 1-2, then 2-2, and flied out to center
Kotchman - Started 0-1, then singled to center, and Jones was picked off second making a bad turn.

Top 4th (6-0 Braves):
Ross - Started 1-0, then 1-1, and doubled to deep center
Schafer - Laid down a bunt for a single on the first pitch.
Vazquez - Started 0-1, then sacrificed Ross to third and Schafer to second.
Infante - Started 0-2 and popped out to first.
Prado - Started 1-0, then 1-1, then 2-1, and homered to left-center.
Jones - Flied to center on the first pitch.

Top 5th (6-0 Braves):
Diaz - Singled to center on a 1-0 count.
Francoeur - GIDP 1-4-3 on the first pitch.
Kotchman - Popped to second on the first pitch.

Top 6th (6-0 Braves):
Ross - Struck out swinging on an 0-2 count.
Schafer - Started 1-0, then reached on an infield single to third.
Vazquez - Sacrificed Schafer to second on the first pitch.
Infante - Started 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, then flied out to right.

There's a lot there, but the basic gist of it is that time-honored cliche that Poz's work bears out: Throw strikes, for Pete's sake. I feel bad that Duke had a bad day on his birthday, and I have no idea why he wasn't able to locate in certain innings on Sunday, but in the four innings when he located, he got outs, and in the two innings when he didn't, he gave up runs. Sometimes it's just that simple.

For Now...

2009-04-20T11:51:00.003-05:00

I've returned from my intense traveling to both sides of the country, having visited Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland (as well as my hometown of Columbus) all in the same week. I managed to take in three baseball games, two in Pittsburgh and one in Phoenix, and I plan on seeing the Indianapolis Indians take on the Columbus Clippers Thursday and/or Friday, and perhaps Sunday as well. I may hate this sport by the end of the month, but my man-crush on Andrew McCutchen will last forever.

To tide you over before I talk at length about this weekend's games and Zach Duke's inability to throw a first pitch strike, I have a story for you from the incomparable Rich Lederer (of the Baseball Analysts) about how Denny McLain ruined a baseball. Enjoy.

Bang for Your Bucs

2009-04-15T14:14:00.003-05:00

I've been on vacation since last Wednesday, so my apologies for not publicly eating crow over the performance of Nyjer Morgan and Freddy Sanchez to start the season, but I'll probably just take a little more time off until the inevitable regression begins.

Anyway, I do have this tidbit for you:

Tom Tango's self-appointed blog post of the day comes from Ben Fry, and you should probably take a look. Looks like Team Neal is doing at least a decent job with your hard-earned dollars spent at PNC Park.

I'll be in attendance for this weekend's games agains the most hated Atlanta Braves, my first of the year. Looks like I'll be seeing Ian Snell and Zach Duke on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, let's hope it's not a disaster.

Jumpin' Jack Flash

2009-04-06T18:20:00.002-05:00

The weather outside may be frightful, but an Opening Day come from behind 6-4 victory over the hated St. Louis Cardinals is oh so delightful.

Man, I missed baseball. Nicely done, Jack Wilson. With two outs in the ninth I thought the PBC was done for the day, but it was not to be. Good times.

And so it begins...

2009-04-06T12:48:00.003-05:00

John Russell, why do you hate me?

Depending on your opinion of Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss, other than Jack Wilson, who has certainly been tried plenty of times in the past, could you put two worse guys at the top of this lineup?

The three best batters (read: the people who make the least amount of outs) on the team should be in the 1, 2, and 4 spots. By my estimation, those three are probably Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, and Adam LaRoche, until Andy proves otherwise. I get that you don't want to bat one of those three in the leadoff spot, so bump Doumit to fifth and find someone (ANYONE) to get on base in front of McLouth, whom you are now using as the fifth best hitter in the three spot instead of one of the best hitters in the 2 or 4 spot. It's not rocket science, people: Making outs is bad. Not making outs is good.

I get to start using this familiar refrain again: Freddy Sanchez belongs nowhere near the top of the batting order.

Ye gods.

Welcome to 2009

2009-04-06T09:23:00.004-05:00

Well, the day we've all been waiting for is finally upon us. It's officially Opening Day, one of my favorite days of the year, and though it's unseasonably cold in Columbus today, I still feel that spring has arrived, and we can begin anew our quest to root for a baseball team that doesn't make us want to pound our collective heads against the limestone walls of PNC Park.

I am still thinking about doing a much longer post on the various projection systems and how they forecast the performance of the now official 25-man roster, but that might perhaps take more time than I have to offer right now, as I am about to head out of town for the next two weeks. I will be taking in the Diamondbacks/Cardinals game at Chase Field a week from today as my first official baseball game this season, followed shortly by my first games at PNC Park on April 18th-19th against the most hated Atlanta Braves. It's going to be good times.

For now, I will give you my version of Sky Kalkman's WAR spreadsheet for this year's Pittsburgh Pirates. You can find an empty version here for you to fill out on your own.

For the batters 2009 wOBA I used Brian Cartwright's Oliver projections, and for the pitchers I used Tom Tango's Marcel projections. I think most of these are on a reasonable target, and the results of the inputs gives you roughly a 73 win team, which is exactly what I had in mind when they announced the 25-man roster. There's some improvement here over last year's model, but not enough to produce a winning season, unless all of the pitchers get substantially better, and the offense finds a way to replace and further augment the missing run production of Bay and Nady. I kind of slacked on the baserunning and defense adjustments; I think the defense will improve somewhere close to league average this year, and baserunning is still something that is tough to quantify. All I know is that Nate McLouth is pretty bad defensively in center field, but is a fantastic base runner.

Anyway, here's the spreadsheet (click for a larger version). Enjoy:

This needs to change.

2009-04-01T10:01:00.002-05:00

Please, please, please don't let this be the Opening Day lineup (taken from today's starting nine):

Nyjer Morgan, LF
Freddy Sanchez, 2B
Nate McLouth, CF
Ryan Doumit, C
Adam LaRoche, 1B
Brandon Moss, RF
Andy LaRoche, 3B
Jack Wilson, SS
Paul Maholm, P

The two WORST on base guys at the top of the lineup? I find it extremely hard to believe that Team Neal approves of this batting order. Bearing in mind that the pitching staff should only be marginally better than it was last year (despite what you might hear otherwise from the Joe Kerrigans of the world), why in Roberto's name would you waste more at bats on your least productive hitters?

The prototypical "this is how you win in the National League" crap needs to go if this team is going to be successful. This is not a competitive batting order, plain and simple.

Waiting on Cutch

2009-03-30T08:46:00.003-05:00

Anyone who reads this blog regularly has probably already seen this PBC Blog entry by now, or the articles in various other Pirate-related news outlets, but in case you haven't, Andrew McCutchen, along with erstwhile shortstop Brian Bixler, has been reassigned to minor league camp, and will not start the season on the 25-man roster.

Unlike many others (presumably), I have absolutely no problem with this.

First, there's no reason to start his service clock now, when the team will almost assuredly turn in its 17th losing season. If he shows at Indianapolis that he's ready to play every day in the major leagues (something which he did not do last year), then I have no problem bringing him up, especially if Nyjer Morgan turns out to be, well, Nyjer Morgan.

Second, it really won't be long before he's in Pittsburgh, because he's the best defensive center fielder in the organization, and the Pirates were one of if not the worst defensive teams in the majors last year. They need all the help they can get.

Lastly, consider both the Twins' Carlos Gomez and Baltimore's Adam Jones, two high profile prospects who were thrust into every day work last year because their teams didn't really have a better option. Both are going to be very good players; I've mentioned here before that I saw Jones play in Seattle last year and was impressed. But Gomez had all of 157 PA's at AAA before starting in the majors and struggled mightily (though he played stellar CF defense), and Jones struggled through the first half of 2008 despite two full years at AAA before coming to the Orioles in the Bedard trade.

All three of these guys are going to be awesome players, but there's no need to rush McCutchen to the majors to make an impact for a losing team like Dave Littlefield would have done. Let him dominate AAA and see if his power develops, and if it does, let him roam center at PNC and move Nate McLouth over to left, please. Until then, remind yourself that he's entering his Age 22 season, and there's plenty of time left for us to appreciate his work.

Moneyballs

2009-03-25T11:13:00.003-05:00

Though I consider Chuck Finder's work to be a little sillier than the fairly straight-forward stylings of our friend Mr. Kovacevic, he has now contributed my favorite article of the spring on hitting coach Don Long's strategy for helping batters keep their eyes on the ball.

Line It Up

2009-03-24T09:47:00.004-05:00

So, I've been pondering the Pirates' 2009 lineup for most of the last few days, ever since I read this article from Beyond the Box Score reporting the fine work of Tom Tango, etc. in The Book.

Oddly enough, the P/G ran an article today mentioning how Team Neal is not pleased with the efforts of your supposed leadoff hitter, one Nyjer Morgan, who is perhaps the worst person (2008 Freddy Sanchez not included) to be leading off for this team.

I spent plenty of time last season complaining about Sanchez batting high in the order, despite not being able to a) hit for average, or b) get on base by any other means, so there's no reason to rehash all that. I still think Nate McClouth is better utilized somewhere other than the leadoff spot, but worse sins have been comitted. With John Russell seeming like an "old baseball" guy (though nowhere near as much as Jim Tracy), and Team Neal definitely being among the statistically-saavy front offices in baseball, I don't know how much conflict arises when it comes time to make up the lineup card.

There is no such conflict here, however, so if I were JR, here's how my standard lineup would look:

1: Andy LaRoche: Whatever, judge all you want, but I think LaRoche the Lesser is going to have a much improved year, closer to his minor league nubmers. As noted in the article, leadoff is all about OBP, and with his career .380 OBP in the minors and average power numbers, he is probably the best option.

2. McLouth: None of the projections I've seen have McLouth hitting as many home runs as last year, so he's better suited here than in the #4 spot. If this team had a real leadoff hitter, he would've been in this spot last year (or so I tell myself). It's also worth noting that McLouth only grounded into 5 double plays last year.

3. Brandon Moss/Eric Hinske: I know Hinske's supposed to be a bench player, but I think he's going to end up with considerable playing time. Roughly 15 or so home runs from this part of the order isn't going to make any traditionalists happy, but the better hitters should be in different places.

4. Adam LaRoche: This of course, will not take effect until June. JR is probably better off just leaving this spot empty for the first two months.

5. Ryan Doumit: Some power, decent OBP, better than average slugging percentage. All of those sound appropriate to me for the #5 hole.

6. Nyjer Morgan: Since the last couple spots will be bad-OBP contact hitters, if Nyjer can increase his OBP and better use his speed (i.e. NOT overrun second base on attempted steals), then his run production value is maximized in the six spot.

7. Freddy Sanchez: I know that it does not seem right to have a former batting champion batting seventh in your lineup (unless you're New York or Boston), but after last year, all bets are off with Freddy. This is the spot where he can do the most/least damage, depending on your perspective.

8. Pitcher: I don't want to congratulate Tony LaRussa for anything really, and since I don't think he was reading up on Tangotiger's work before batting the pitcher eighth, I feel like I don't have to. Though the difference in value is pretty small (and probably insignificant), every little bit helps.

9. Jack Wilson: Batting the pitcher eighth and someone at least halfway decent in the last spot of the order speaks to the notion that the batting order should be though of more as a revolving entity and not in the more traditional mode. For all the "Jack Wilson is comfortable in the ninth spot" stories I read last fall, the numbers don't bear that out: .242/.294/.326 in 102 plate appearances, his worst split of any spot in the lineup. Let's hope that changes.

Alright, so there it is. Feel free to rip me a new one now.

Who Am I? Where Am I?

2009-03-23T15:57:00.003-05:00

I know, I know. Two weeks off is poor behavior for a baseball blogger during Spring Training, but I keep coming back for more. With only two weeks to go before the opener in St. Louis, I'll try and start ramping up my brilliant insight on all things Pirate baseball.

For today, I will present you with an interview by Baseball Prospectus with your starting center fielder, Nate McLouth. Let's just say that Mr. McLouth has no love for John Dewan and/or Bill James, as well as their fancy new fielding metrics from The Fielding Bible.

Of course, Nate never sounds like a bad guy, but bear in mind that he is a Michigander, and they cannot be trusted. (Go Bucks.)

More Pitch f/x Love

2009-03-10T08:25:00.002-05:00

Last year, Joe Sheehan put together some nice work on run values of different pitches by location using pitch f/x data from 2007.

Well, I'm not sure exactly who picked up the torch and ran with it for 2008, but he/she has created a new blog with some prettier, more interesting graphs. I'm fascinated by this stuff, so once again I shall say: Check it out.

2009-03-03T22:22:00.003-06:00

I've seen this making the rounds on the usual blogs, so I thought I should share it here for a very important reason:

The Worst Contracts in MLB

Notice one team in particular that's conspicuously absent from this list? That's right it's your Pittsburgh Pirates (along with the Rays, Phillies, Marlins, Braves, and Padres). You probably could not have said that as recently as 2-3 years ago, depending on your opinion of the Jason Kendall contract.

Some will argue that the Pirates' absence from this list has to do with the fact that the Nuttings are generally unwilling to put up enough money to saddle the team with an albatross contract, and I can't really disagree with that. However, I think it does warrant mentioning that Team Neal could have mishandled the McLouth, Doumit, and Maholm negotiations, but whether it was because of the lousy economy or just sound business strategy, they managed to handle themselves pretty well. Just saying.

BA Top 100

2009-02-24T13:53:00.002-06:00

Perhaps the most trusted prospect list to come out each year, Baseball America's list of the Top 100 Prospects is out:

BA TOP 100

The usual suspects are there:

12. Pedro Alvarez - 3B (22, ETA: 2009)
9/24: Date he signed with the Pirates—more than a month after the Aug. 15 deadline—after the union's grievance on his behalf.

33. Andrew McCutchen - OF (22, ETA: 2009)
1: International League center fielders with a higher OPS than McCutchen's .770 (Brett Gardner, .836).

75. Jose Tabata - OF (20, ETA: 2010)
.348: Average at Double-A Altoona after being traded from the Yankees in July, or 100 points higher than his average at Double-A Trenton.

I was somewhat encouraged by Alvarez being positioned above Mike Moustakas (Royals) and Buster Posey (Giants), since those guys are pretty big deals, and that Tabata made it in just behind Taylor Teagarden (Rangers), who is the talk of Arlington, though probably more because of trade rumors.

Personally, I'm still the most excited about McCutchen, probably because I feel like I've known the guy longer. Since I live in Columbus, I checked the Clippers' (Cleveland's AAA team) schedule and was delighted that Indianapolis is coming to town in late April. It's also the inaugural season for the Clippers' new stadium, (Neal?) Huntington Park. Anyway, it'll be good to see Cutch patroling CF in person.

(side note: I'm planning two huge posts on the various projection systems and what they have to say about the 2009 performance of your favorite team. Look for those this weekend. I'll let you know in advance that PECOTA was once again unkind to the black and gold.)

Mark McGwire

2009-02-18T16:45:00.002-06:00

I have some half-baked thoughts on steroids that I'll save for another time, but I wanted to tip off those of you who don't get SI or read their website regularly (both of those apply to me) to a nice piece by Poz on Mark McGwire and the lingering steroid scandal.

Here's the link.

I can't help but think that this is another example where we all thought we knew something, and then almost four years later, it turns out we were wrong the whole time.

I feel bad for McGwire. For better or for worse, the guy should be in the Hall of Fame, but even if it happens now, it will be cheapened for many by the steroid issue, and cheapened for others because it will most likely be a "sympathy" election after so many years of getting jerked around by the BBWAA.

I hope what Poz heard is right, and that McGwire is reasonably happy with his life these days. The guy deserves better than what he's gotten over the last four years.

Cardboard God: Andy Van Slyke

2009-02-17T19:07:00.003-06:00

I don't want to comment on the McLouth deal until at least the terms of the deal are released (or perhaps until he's moved out of center field), but so I can continue to deliver on my recent trend of only posting something on Tuesdays, here's a nice link for you:

Josh Wilker revists the Pirates for the first time in a year by featuring an Andy Van Slyke card (which I had as a kid!):

If you say Pittsburgh Pirates to me I think of a raucous party, Sister Sledge blaring, free-swinging sluggers Al-Olivering line-drive doubles into the gap and speedsters Omar-Morenoing around third and sliding into home safely in a cloud of glittering, vaguely illicit dust, the giddy treble of the disco in the Pirates’ fearsome game supported by the rock-solid morally upright thumping bass of slugging elder statesman Roberto Clemente on one end of the decade and slugging elder statesman Willie Stargell on the other.

In short, I like the Pirates. And not for nothing, but I have been to more than a few major league baseball stadiums and as far as I have seen the only one that incorporates baseball cards into the very structure of their building is the Pirates’ current stadium, which as I recall has baseball cards of former Pirates embedded into the surfaces of walls and/or pillars out in the concourse behind the left-field bleachers.

Pitch Sequencing

2009-02-10T10:47:00.001-06:00

Another great article on pitch f/x and pitch sequencing from Josh Kalk over at The Hardball Times.

I found it interesting that the fastball sets up every other pitch, but go read the whole thing so you can appreciate the good work that Josh is doing.

(h/t to Tom Tango for the link)

Who's Left?

2009-02-10T09:22:00.003-06:00

This chart, from our friends at Beyond the Box Score, shows the remaining free agent hitters (some of whom have since been snatched up) and their Wins Above Replacement values using the CHONE projection system for both offense and defense. I know it's kind of hard to read the names, but give it a look, and bear in mind that these are the remaining hitters available for the Buccos to snatch up before (or during) spring training, which starts this Saturday.

Not surprisingly, there's a lot there, and there's very little there, all at the same time. In a perfect world, the Buccos would probably sign someone like Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn (though I'd definitely settle for the nice bat and glove work of Orlando Hudson if they had somewhere to put him), but this is definitely not a perfect world.

Leaving out MannyBManny, everyone else on this list is basically a 2 WAR or less performer, which means at best, adding a free agent hitter would only improve the team by roughly two wins. Considering that would cost somewhere between $5-$10 million (depending on how savvy a deal Team Neal can negotiate), and there really isn't a great fit among the players on this list, I wouldn't expect the Buccos to sign any of the moderate-to-big names on this spreadsheet.

High Heat and Curveballs

2009-02-03T08:38:00.002-06:00

Sorry for the brief absence; I've been immersed in all things Steeler, but now I'm (almost) fully prepared to jump head-first into the 2009 season, with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp next Friday (2/13).

I was in attendance (naturally) for this year's PirateFest, really just to see what Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington had to say during their Q&A session. I think that was probably the first time I've been impressed while listening to someone from the Pirates' management team explain what the heck is going on with this moribund franchise.

I also have some thoughts on Hinske vs. Doug Mientkiewicz, and the free agent market (how come Ben Sheets doesn't have a job yet?!) , but we'll get to those later.

For now, since my love for pitch f/x is well known, here's a great article from Josh Kalk about Ted Lilly, his lollipop curveball, and when to throw the high heat. Fascinating stuff.

Pirate Prospects

2009-01-22T19:27:00.003-06:00

Those of you who are unfamiliar with the work of Keith Law at ESPN.com should avail yourself of the internet and take a prolonged look at his work. It's the time of year to talk about the future, so Keith has once again published his list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball. Also, he produced his annual ranking of the minor league systems for all 30 teams (Buccos are #22, up from last year, and above the Reds, Cubs, and Astros).

The highest ranked Pirate prospect is Andrew McCutchen, who clocks in at #18. Here's Keith's comments (for those of you who didn't click the link already):

Andrew McCutchen has been rushed. Repeat after me: He … has … been … rushed. This isn't a criticism of the current regime in Pittsburgh, as the rushing all took place before Neal Huntington could even get a catalog to pick out new drapes for his office, but they inherited a player who had arrived in Triple-A before his 21st birthday despite posting a .710 OPS in Double-A, a level he reached after the Pirates skipped him right past high-A. He's been rushed, I say. The good thing is that he has survived this hazing and even performed well in several areas, notably his plate discipline. McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn't get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn't hit for the kind of power he's capable of producing. He has great bat speed and has hit for average while making plenty of contact. He's a 65-70 runner but had an uncharacteristically sloppy year as a base stealer; he's a plus glove in center but could use a little work on routes. The power should come -- he's too young for us to assume that it won't -- and the new regime in Pittsburgh has a much better player-development protocol in place.

The other two Pirate prospects on the list are:

#32, Jose Tabata (20 - CF)
#38, Pedro Alvarez (21 - 3B)

Three in the top 40 isn't bad, but that's it. Obviously, this substantiates the commonly-held opinion that the Pirates' system is anything but deep, so there really shouldn't be a surprise here. There are a handful of teams that appear pretty frequently: the Rangers, A's, Rays, Red Sox, and Indians among a couple others, all of which have a good chance to be very competitive this year. People still complain about the Bay and Nady trades, but when big market teams like the Red Sox are maintaining a huge stock of talent in their farm system, the only way for a team like the Pirates to be competitive is to build a stock of similar quality. Sometimes that means you have to trade away (arguably) your best players.

Let's hope the Pirates manage to move up the list next year.

Thank you, Frank.

2009-01-20T14:32:00.002-06:00

I assume this was a Coonelly decision, but I don't really care who made it. I'm just glad that they're gone:

The Pirates will no longer be using their alternate red jerseys.

The new alternates will be unveiled at PirateFest this weekend (at which I will be in attendance), so we'll see how they look. Keep your fingers crossed.

More on Blyleven

2009-01-13T14:07:00.002-06:00

Rich Lederer does what he does so well in ripping apart Jon Heyman and making the case for Blyleven yet again.

On a side note, I recently moved (again), and I now get to watch a 42" HDTV that doesn't belong to me. One benefit of that is the cable provider carries the MLB network, which allows me to see old games that I'm strangely interested in, but I have to put up with the studio show that includes Heyman as their "insider," along with Harold Reynolds, Joe Magrane, and others. During their HOF discussion over the weekend, where they spouted roughly the same BS that Lederer takes Heyman to task for above, the only thing that kept me from chucking the remote at the brand new TV was that I couldn't decide which idiot at which to aim it.

There has to be a breaking point with this ridiculous stand-off between the sabermetrically-inclined and the "old school" writers, right? How many more times do I have to read Dan Shaughnessy call really intelligent people like Rob Neyer, Keith Law, Tom Tango (and many, many others) "basement dwellers" simply because he disagrees with their conlcusions that are based on statistical evidence instead of anecdotes and hyperbole?

I find it moderately compelling that Jim Rice finished in the Top 5 in MVP voting six different times, and that Blyleven never won a Cy Young and only made two All-Star teams. Why? Because those points are based on actual evidence. Unfortunately, when you look deeper at what actually happened and not someone's opinion of what happened, Rice's candidacy doesn't really hold up, and Blyleven's looks a lot better.

I get the desire to fantasize the game a bit. Baseball is a beautiful and enduring sport that's just as much a part of the last 150 years of this country's history as anything else, but when you start having conversations about who the best players are, given the fact that those players played in different times, different stadia, and against different competition, you had better start looking at the numbers to be able to figure things out with at least some objectivity.

What about Rock, Tram, and Bert?

2009-01-12T14:03:00.004-06:00

The verdict is in. Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice have been the only two eligible players elected by the BBWAA to the Hall of Fame for 2009.

Great player and former Pirate Bert Blyleven saw his vote percentage move up a bit (61.9% to 62.7%), but still fell about 75 votes short of the threshold for election.

In an effort to baffle the mind, the BBWAA cast only 81 votes for former Pirate Dave "The Snake" Parker, who racked up 15% of the vote, enough to keep him on the ballot for next year, but not much else. Granted, Rice put up moderately better offensive numbers, but a good chunk of that was in Fenway Park, and Parker was a significantly better fielder.

Anyway, I've answered my own question. Rice played in Boston. Parker played in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for most of his career. Both played the majority of their careers before the heyday of ESPN and cable television, which means that Rice received significantly more exposure, playing on the baseball-crazy East Coast, where a generation of fans (and writers) got to hear of and occasionally see his now legendary feats of strength on the diamond. Outside of perhaps his MVP year, Parker is best remembered for the drug trials.

Now, Jim Rice is "the most feared hitter of his time," despite the fact that while he was playing he rarely got an intentional walk, and he wasn't even the best hitter on his team. Leave it to the BBWAA to make a player better than he actually was 15 years after he hung up his cleats.

Though it does get under my skin somewhat, I don't really mind that Rice is in, what I mind is that more deserving people are left out. Blyleven, Tim Raines, and Alan Trammell deserve to be in the Hall. I'll let people spin their wheels on McGwire for a while, because I do think he'll eventually get in, but I've yet to hear a good argument why the other three are not worthy of induction. If you've got an argument, I'm all ears.

Burrell signs for 2 yrs./$16 million

2009-01-05T15:21:00.002-06:00

Peter Bendix hits the nail right on the head: The Rays just signed Pat Burrell to one heck of a deal.

Since Burrell knew he wasn't going to be back with the Phillies after they signed Raul Ibanez to a misguided deal, he probably did the next best thing by signing with the team he played against in the 2008 World Series.

It warrants mentioning that the Pirates need a right-handed power bat in the outfield (with a very good OBP history), and if 2 years at $8 million per year is all that it was going to take, well...

Obviously Burrell took less money to play for a contending team, but you could argue that if he's willing to take 2 years and $16 million from the Rays, the Pirates could've thrown 3 years, $27-$30 million and probably got the job done. Sure, his defense is terrible, but he more than makes up for it with the bat. FanGraphs has him worth $12.6 million last year, so $9-$10 million a year is a significant discount, even to play for such a lousy team. It was at least worth pursuing, if in fact Team Neil never pursued him.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone asks Dejan in the next Q&A whether the Pirates even bothered to give Burrell's agent a call.

More HOF Discussion

2008-12-30T13:31:00.003-06:00

Tom Tango just posted a nice list of the career Win Shares for players (post-Ruth) that are eligible for the Hall of Fame. Take a look.

It's a shame that Raines (390 career WS) isn't getting the consideration he deserves, the same applied for Darrell and Dwight Evans. I know that Win Shares is not the be-all, end-all of statistics, but it's a very good one, and a pretty accurate measure of the contribution one makes to his team over the course of a season or career.

Since you won't find him on that list, I'll let you know that Jim Rice achieved 282 Win Shares during his 16-year career, well behind this list, which includes one of his comparable players "The Snake" Dave Parker, at 327 career Win Shares.

Once again, if Rice is good enough for the HOF, why isn't Parker?

Another Jack Attack

2008-12-17T21:53:00.002-06:00

Eric Seidman over at the always useful FanGraphs put together some thoughts on your shortstop, and I think you should go read them.

I think most Pirate fans tend to be on the overly optimistic side when it comes to Jack Wilson, so it's worth pointing out some things:

1. He's had only three seasons where he topped 600 PA's (2003 - 2005), and it's reasonable to expect that at his advancing age, those years are behind him. So, you have to invest in a reasonable replacement for him (i.e. NOT Chris Gomez).
2. As brilliant as he can be with the glove, which saves runs and generally has a somewhat underrated value, do remember that he has only had two seasons above league average in OPS, 2004 and 2007, when he was 104 and 107 in OPS+, respectively. Before you point out that 104 and 107 OPS+ is well above-average for a shortstop (with which I agree), please remind yourself that his other seasons he had the following OPS+: 40, 67, 70, 74, 77, and 77 in (2001-2003, 2005-2006, and 2008). This is all by way of saying to please remember that 2004 and 2007 are outliers, and not indicative of Jack's true talent level.
3. Also, please bear in mind that his high water marks in OBP are .335 and .350, set again in 2004 and 2007, the rest of his OBP season numbers fare no better than .316. Shortstops may not slug the ball with authority, but they should be able to get on base with greater frequency.

It matters little how many outs you contribute while on defense if you give them right back when you come to the plate. I think Jack Wilson should and probably will stay with the Pirates one more year, mostly because Team Neal won't find anyone willing to take him off the Bucs' hands in this market. Prospects have become the most valued commodity in baseball right now, mostly because they are both cheap and controllable, so teams would rather take a chance by hanging onto a prospect with upside than overpaying for a veteran or free agent who is a relatively known quantity. This is particularly true in this economy, where many free agents have been paid below-market value for their services.

Team Neal is hopefully smart enough to know that paying more than nothing or at least very little of Jack's salary this year in a trade should only be used as a means to get a higher value of return in prospects. The people who value Jack Wilson most probably reside in Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean he's being paid an unfair amount. If he does get traded, let's hope the return is of at least comparable value.

"The former was a lulu, and the latter was a cake..."

2008-12-15T08:42:00.001-06:00

Ben Henry, proprietor of The Baseball Card Blog, has decided to close up shop, but his last post is something truly awesome.

Go here to check it out: Casey at the Bat.

More from India

2008-12-12T11:30:00.003-06:00

Kris Liakos over at Walk Off Walk posted an interview yesterday with everyone's favorite imports from the Indian subcontinent, Rinku and Dinesh.

There's not a lot there, but I'm generally interested in all things involving the Pirates and their Indian pitchers. Here's a nice clip:

Before I hung up I got to talk to JB a little. He made the point that more than Rinku and Dinesh being Indian, it's just amazing that two guys signed a pro contract in a sport that they hadn't heard of 7 months earlier. We racked our brains to come up with someone else like that and couldn't. He asked me if I'd seen the "Babewatch" blog entry. I said I had but I didn't want to bring it up since Rinku seemed mad about it. JB said "he wasn't mad, he was INCENSED." That made me laugh.

If you haven't read the above referenced entry, please treat yourself and go here to read it. And if you don't add their blog to your Google Reader after that, then I don't even want to know you.

Adios, Ron Paul.

2008-12-10T23:03:00.004-06:00

No, not this Ron Paul. The Pirates' backup catcher who forgot how to hit and field like a major leaguer somewhere between 2006 and 2007.

Enter Jason Jaramillo, who is basically the same player with (hopefully) a better attitude.

Also, here's Eric Seidman's take (basically Phillie-centric) at Fangraphs.

Personally, I'm not shedding any tears now that Paulino is officially gone. I had expected him to be dealt sometime before spring training, since he had made it clear he had no interest in contributing to the team, and turned it on in fall ball (presumably) for the purpose of increasing his trade value.

Jaramillo is an upgrade mostly for psychological reasons, but he does get on base at a decent clip (for a catcher), and between him and Robinzon Diaz, we seem to have a couple decent options for a backup catcher. Of course, that's more than a small concern, given the injury history of Ryan Doumit. It's a minor deal, and I'm fine with it.

Of course, that will surely anger many who expect the Pirates to undo recent history by making a big splash at the Winter Meetings every year. The fact that this is the only trade executed so far will not soothe their anger, to be sure, and will only help to pour gasoline on that raging fire.

Honestly though, what more could be expected from a team that has little to offer at the major league level? There's no chance of any small-market team landing any of the big free agents (Sabathia, Teixeira, Ramirez, etc.), and when you don't want to trade what little minor league talent you have (since you just drafted them), or the fairly talented major league players you have control over for multiple years (since you'd get basically the same thing in return), the best you can do is try and sign a lesser name free agent for less than they're worth (like the Tigers did with Adam Everett) to fill a gap until you can improve at that position internally.

Of course, that doesn't make headlines, and just angers your already insane fan base. These are the reasons why I don't envy Neal Huntington. We'll see what happens tomorrow in the Rule V draft, and the free agent market over the next two months.

Congrats!

2008-12-10T14:23:00.003-06:00

A long-standing wrong has been righted, as the BBWAA has finally opened its ranks to two of my favorite writers, Rob Neyer and Keith Law of ESPN.com, as well as Will Carroll and Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus.

The more sabermetric friendly the BBWAA gets, the better life will be for nerds like me. Congrats to Rob, Keith, Will and Christina.

Hall of Fame

2008-12-10T00:00:00.000-06:00

1. Harold Baines

2. †Jay Bell

3. Bert Blyleven

4. †David Cone

5. Andre Dawson

6. †Ron Gant

7. †Mark Grace

8. †Rickey Henderson

9. Tommy John

10. Don Mattingly

11. Mark McGwire

12. Jack Morris

13. Dale Murphy

14. †Jesse Orosco

15. Dave Parker

16. †Dan Plesac

17. Tim Raines

18. Jim Rice

19. Lee Smith

20. Alan Trammell

21. †Greg Vaughn

22. †Mo Vaughn

23. †Matt Williams

† Denotes a first-time appearance on the ballot.

Here's what my ballot would look like:

IN:

Bert Blyleven: Much ink has been spilled about this, especially by Rich Lederer, who wrote something new just the other day. If Jim Rice gets in this year (which he probably will), then Blyleven should be in too, with a signed apology from the BBWAA. Someone said this week (I believe it was Rob Neyer) that when the post-Blyleven pitchers with less than 300 wins start going in to the Hall, it will make it even harder to justify why Blyleven is not there. I completely agree, so can we just get the guy in already?

Rickey Henderson: Joe Posnanski wrote today about this, and I completely agree, as is the usual with me and JoePo. There's no cogent argument for why Rickey should not be in the Hall of Fame.

Mark McGwire: It's well past time to come down off the soapbox. Keeping McGwire out sends the Hall of Fame down a very treacherous, hypocritical, and slippery slope.

Tim Raines: People focus more on Andre Dawson for some reason, and I feel like Rock gets left out, which is a shame, because he was one of the best players of my youth. If Blyleven is Rich Lederer's project, Raines belongs to the inimitable Tom Tango, who covered why Rock should be in the Hall of Fame from all conceivable angles, and it's clear that he belongs. One thing about baseball in the 80's that is becoming more and more clear: We didn't know what was really valuable (see Boggs, Wade). Even I was surprised to see some of these numbers.

Alan Trammell: Basically outshined by Cal Ripken Jr. for most of his career. Had a very good bat and a very good glove, and deserves more credit. Don't believe me? Look here.

OUT, with regrets:

Andre Dawson: Would make my "Hall of Very Good," and my Hall of Fame for nicknames.

Dale Murphy: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Was spoken of with reverential tones on TBS when I was a kid, but now is pretty much an afterthought.

Dave Parker and Jim Rice: Mostly because Rice getting in is the only way Parker gets considered, when Parker was in fact the better player. In my estimation, neither should go, but it's ridiculous to put Rice in when Parker is getting so much less support. I guess the Cobra should've played in the weaker league and a better pitcher's park so he could garner a few more votes.

Out, with no regrets:

Jack Morris: Never has one World Series done so much for someone's career. Please, please, please familiarize yourself with the numbers. And by the way, he was AWFUL in the 1992 postseason. No way am I supporting a pitcher with a 105 ERA+ for his career.

Baines, Bell, Cone, Gant, Grace, John, Mattingly, Orosco, Plesac, Smith, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Williams

There's my (slightly informed) opinion.

You Don't Know Jack

2008-12-09T13:10:00.004-06:00

Any of you that read Dejan's work regularly (and really, everyone should because he does a fantastic job covering such a lousy team) ought to appreciate this post from the PBC Blog:

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2008/12/09/winter-meetings-2008-day-2.aspx

Needless to say, I have always appreciated Jack Wilson's upbeat attitude and apparent willingness to remain a Pirate for as long as possible, so this story is probably just icing on the cake.

Of course, the aforementioned Mr. Wilson is a hot topic of trade rumors at this year's Winter Meetings (I, for one, think absolutely nothing is going to happen), while all around him, supposedly interested teams, and alleged replacements wind up going other places.

First, Adam Everett was signed by the Tigers for $1 million, far less than he's worth.

Then Mark Loretta went to the Dodgers, and supposedly the Buccos never made him an offer.

Now the Twins are supposedly involved, but I sincerely doubt that the Pirates will manage to pry anything of great value from them for a shortstop who is owed a lot of money and is of advancing years.

Like I said, I think when January rolls around, Jack Wilson will still be a Pirate.

Change? We don't need no stinking change.

2008-12-04T09:29:00.003-06:00

This is not specifically Pirates baseball related information, but there is a really interesting article up on Driveline Mechanics about two brothers who are both pitchers, and whose father developed an interesting pitching motion for the two of them that would take stress off the pitching shoulder, and place it on the bigger, stronger muscles of the back instead.

According to the post, Fritz Outman (Josh and Zach's father) studied biomechanics for 15+ years, and is publishing a book on how this all works. From what my completely untrained eye can see, it definitely looks like a lot less stress would be placed on both the pitching shoulder and elbow, which means the Pirates probably should have hired the guy to teach this delivery to Sean Burnett, Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, and various other pitchers in the minor league system.

Of course, MLB is to stubborn to try it, partly because (in my estimation) no pitching coach would want to accept the fact that someone else came up with this delivery, and then have to do a crazy thing like learn something new.

Here's a clip of an interview that Josh did with David Laurila from Baseball Prospectus referenced in the post:

DL: You grew up utilizing a unique pitching motion, which was taught to you by your father, and you changed it prior to becoming eligible for the draft. In an interview last year, you said that your old motion "wasn’t something that was projectable in the minds of Major League Baseball." Can you elaborate on that?

JO: It was just something that fell outside of the previous profile for draftability so there was a concern that it would scare people off. There are no pitching coaches who know it, or previous players who have used it, so I changed to a more conventional style to fit in better with people’s expectations of what a pitcher looks like. With a guy like Dontrelle Willis, his motion is more of a variation on a theme. Mine was its own unique theme.

DL: Phillies assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle was quoted as saying that you probably would have been drafted much lower had you not changed your motion, because people would have been afraid of the injury factor. What are your thoughts on that?

JO: I think that was an assumption made under faulty information. What I was taught actually took stress off of my arm, so there wasn’t full comprehension on how my motion worked. Using a vertical arm position freed up my rotator cuff and enabled the use of the larger pectoral and abdominal muscle groups rather than the smaller deltoids and various other shoulder muscles. It used my lats to slow my arm down rather than just the posterior deltoids, and because those are larger, stronger muscles that can withstand more force it took a large workload off of my shoulder muscles. And eliminating the leg kick in lieu of a normal walking step, I was expending less energy to get the same production from my body, while sparing my throwing arm much of the wear and tear associated with pitching.

I find it disappointing that MLB wouldn't even take a shot at letting this kid pitch with the mechanics that got him drafted in the first place. Considering how much money is spent on pitchers that ends up being a sunk cost due to shoulder and/or elbow injuries, you would think that a team or two would be willing to at least try this, given that it does seem to be based on a great deal of facts.

Pre-Thanksgiving Random Links

2008-11-26T10:18:00.003-06:00

As we've already discussed, the much-ballyhooed Rule V Draft is swiftly approaching. This year's draft will be held on Dec. 11th, which is also my birthday, so here's hoping the Pirates find something nice for me (and us) among the eligible draftees. Some big name players have been selected in recent Rule V Drafts, including All-Stars Josh Hamilton (2006), Dan Uggla (2005), and some guy named Johan Santana (1999).

And of course, our beloved inspiration for this blog, one Roberto Clemente, was a selection of Branch Rickey's in the Rule V Draft after the 1954 season.

In that same vein, Marc Hulet over at the Baseball Analysts put together a primer on some possible pitcher selections in this year's Rule V Draft that's definitely worth reading.

---

There's been an interesting back-and-forth going on over wOBA, which is the child of the guys over at The Book (specifically Tom Tango). Rob Neyer posted about it on his (now free!) blog at ESPN.com yesterday, and much discussion ensued in the comments.

I don't know enough to speak about this intelligently, so thankfully Tom Tango took the time to respond to Rob's readers and provide more information on the creation of wOBA.

I mention wOBA because it gives me an opportunity to push FanGraphs on all of you once again. My interest in this site has grown exponentially since they decided to add more and more awesome things to their already very interesting site. In addition to being the one-stop shop for WPA graphs of every game throughout the regular season and playoffs, they have a full slate of stats on both major and minor leage players, as well as all the numbers for the various non-PECOTA projection systems for 2009.

Of course, they've also added wOBA to their stable of stats. It really is a fantastic place.

---

Speaking of FanGraphs, Eric Seidman released the first half of the Top 10 pitching performances of 2008 (in terms of WPA), and you might be surprised that a Pirates' starting pitcher actually made the list. One of the alarmingly few bright spots for the pitching staff this year.

Rinku and Dinesh Go to Bradenton

2008-11-25T10:38:00.003-06:00

I don't even know where to begin.

Look, this is not a high-risk move, so I don't have much of a leg to stand on when criticizing Team Neal for signing two young pitchers from India, who are pitchers only by virtue of winning a contest in their home country. Their ascent to the major leagues is not by virtue of, you know, actually playing baseball for most of their lives, like most other players, but because they won a reality TV show. There are movies that are less ridiculous.

But whatever. They've received something like $15,000 and $20,000 dollars, so it's not like the club is spending Burnitz money on these guys. It does, however, smack of quite a bit of crazy. I guess when your organizational pitching depth is as bad as the Pirates', and when more and more teams are starting to adopt a sabermetric-friendly model for doing business, you have to start thinking more and more "outside the box." In this case, that box appears to be the Western Hemisphere. After all, Moneyball is all about exploiting market deficiencies, right? Well, I can safely say that if there is a market for unknown pitchers from India (and with a billion people, the chances are at least decent), then the Pirates have cornered it.

I will also add that their blog is unintentionally hilarious.

Rule V Roster Deadline

2008-11-20T15:02:00.003-06:00

As some might already know (some NOT including me, because I didn't until about 10 minutes ago), the deadline for setting the 40-man roster prior to the Rule V Draft is today. Unless there is unreported news out there about anyone being added to the 40-man, it will remain at its current 35 members, who are the following.

EDIT: Of course, the PG then reports that five were added to the 40-man roster:

Pitchers (22):
Jimmy Barthmaier
Denny Bautista
T.J. Beam
Sean Burnett
Matt Capps
Jesse Chavez
Dave Davidson
Jason Davis
Zach Duke
Phil Dumatrait
Tom Gorzelanny
John Grabow
Craig Hansen
Jeff Karstens
Paul Maholm
Evan Meek
Ross Ohlendorf
Romulo Sanchez
Ian Snell
Jeff Sues
Ronald Uviedo
Tyler Yates

Catchers (5):
Raul Chavez
Robinzon Diaz
Ryan Doumit
Steve Lerud
Ronny Paulino

Infielders (8):
Pedro Alvarez
Brian Bixler
Luis Cruz
Adam LaRoche
Andy LaRoche
Freddy Sanchez
Neil Walker
Jack Wilson

Outfielders (4):
Nate McLouth
Nyjer Morgan
Brandon Moss
Steve Pearce
Jose Tabata

For some reason, I always forget that Walker was drafted in 2004, and since he was drafted out of college, that means he had to be added to the 40-man before the end of his fourth year to be protected from the Rule V Draft. The same might apply for Steve Lerud, though why Sues, Uviedo and Tabata were added is beyond me, since none of the three needed to be protected.

Considering that there will be a signing of at least one outfielder and one utility man, as well as probably some right-handed bullpen help before spring training, it's safe to assume this won't be the 40-man roster on February 15th.

Runs by Position

2008-11-19T17:18:00.003-06:00

Interesting post from Tom Tango today about the offensive performance by decade of the various defensive positions (pitchers excluded):

Offense by Position Groups by Decade

If you're looking for a nice tidbit, the final word correlates pretty nicely with the scale of defensive difficulty:

Merging everything, since 1980s:

SS -19.6
C -16.3
2B -9.6
CF -1.5
3B +0.4
RF 10.5
LF 10.5
1B 18.4

Not Entirely as Advertised

2008-11-17T15:31:00.005-06:00

The reports of Nate McLouth's horrible defense have been perhaps exaggerated.

As you may already know, the aforementioned McLouth was awarded one of the three NL Gold Glove awards given to outfielders. Why they don't classify the awards among LF, CF, and RF is still beyond me, but whatever. As you also may already know, Mr. McClouth put up (down?) a whopping minus-40 on John Dewan's +/- system, which was the worst among all qualifying centerfielders in major league baseball. This of course led to much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the statistically-inclined community (myself included), who felt that this was another in the long line of stupid decisions made by supposedly intelligent "baseball people" like managers and the BBWAA.

What Dewan says in the post linked above dovetails nicely with my thoughts on McLouth's defense. When I first found out that he was -40 in the plus/minus system for 2008, I thought that number seemed unexpectedly low, not because I rated McLouth's defense highly, but because I just didn't think he was that terrible. When I voted in Tom Tango's scouting report, I believe I gave McClouth about an average rating, which is slightly generous, but my bottom line is that I consider him a below-average center fielder, but not by much.

McLouth's problem (as many sensible analysts have noted), is that he does not get to as many balls as he should, whether by poor reaction off the bat, or by taking bad routes to the ball. I think that supports Dewan's analysis showing that he makes sizeable numbers of "good" and "bad" plays. To a large extent with Nate, it's feast or famine with the plays that are not considered "average." It seems that he either gets a solid read right away and makes a good play on tough ball, or he misreads it and loses the battle while trying to chase it down. Since the official scorer has no concept of outfield errors other than dropping fly balls (or so it seems), Mr. McLouth isn't punished on the score sheet for his poor performance.

The good news is that he generally knows what to do with the ball once he gets it, which keeps his errors low, and subsequently keeps his fielding percentage high, thus he gets the love from the MSM and the managers when they manage to talk about defense. What we can all hope for is that McCutcheon the Outfielder is ready very soon, so he can take over center and move Nate to left field, where he will do less damage. Until then, the Pirates will continue to give up runs in center field, despite the fact that a guy with a Gold Glove plays there.

Year in Review, 2008

2008-11-10T19:18:00.003-06:00

2008 Pittsburgh Pirates

Actual Record: 67-95 (6th Place, NL Central, 14th of 16)
Runs Scored: 765 (9th of 16)
Runs Allowed: 884 (16th of 16)
Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (15th of 16)

Other National League Rankings (Batting):
BA: .258 (9th)
OBP: .320 (15th)
SLG%: .403 (12th)
Walks: 474 (14th)
Strikeouts: 1039 (12th)
HR: 153 (12th)
WPA/LI: -5.23 wins (14th)

Other National League Rankings (Pitching):
ERA: 5.10 (16th)
FIP: 4.84 (16th)
HR Allowed: 176 (13th)
BB Allowed: 657 (16th)
Strikeouts: 963 (15th)
WHIP: 1.57 (16th)
WPA/LI: -14.27 wins (16th)

Team Defense:
DER: .675 (15th)
BABIP: .317 (15th)

What went right: Center fielder Nate McLouth won the starting job out of spring training, and easily cemented himself as the everyday starter, eventually making it to his first All-Star game, and winning an undeserved Gold Glove. Ryan Doumit did not shake the injury bug, but when healthy, served as a solid everyday catcher and bona fide offensive threat. Adam LaRoche struggled out of the gate yet again, but managed to post a well above average .271/.341/.500 slash line, with 25 HR and 85 RBI and played solid defense.

Paul Maholm was the only starter to play above serviceable, leading the starters by a considerable margin in every category that is even moderately relevant. Matt Capps and John Grabow turned in two more than solid performances as the back-end anchors of the bullpen (when they managed to get in the game). Zach Duke didn't post an ERA over 5.00, so I guess that's a step in the right direction.

What went wrong: Everything else. The starting rotation was abysmal, by far the worst in the National League (if not all of Major League Baseball). After Maholm, the odds were at least 2-1 that the starting pitcher would see the fifth inning of any given game. The pitchers put far too many men on base and put far too many balls in play, due in large part to the fact that they couldn't strike anyone out. The already shaky bullpen was overmatched all year, and devolved into a revolving door for anyone from Indianapolis who could pick up a baseball. Better starting pitching and a bolstered bullpen have to be priorities 1 and 2 for Neal Huntington this offseason, and we are most likely seeing that already with the trading of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady for a bunch of pitchers, Andy LaRoche, and Jose Tabata.

Team defense was basically awful, despite the lofty reputations of Jack Wilson (5th among SS in +/-) and Adam LaRoche (9th in RZR among NL 1B, clearly not as good as he supposedly used to be), and the fact that Nate McLouth managed to hoodwink the BBWAA into giving him a Gold Glove, in defiance of his -40 rating among ALL center fielders in baseball, by far the worst rating among ALL outfielders. What that means is that McClouth made 40 less plays than the average centerfielder. The argument against this is that he only made one error all year, and though that's great, you can't make errors on the balls in play that you never get to. The average center fielder made 40 more plays than Nate McClouth over the same number of games, but Nate McClouth managed to get a Gold Glove. I'm a Pirate fan, and I can't even begin to come up with a cogent defense of that. The BBWAA is perhaps the most inept and stubborn group of people ever.

The lone bright spot for the Buccos was perhaps the offense, but that faded quickly with the trades of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. I spoke at length about those trades at the time, so I won't regurgitate that here. I think both were necessary and (at least right now), well executed. Bay will continue to play well in Boston, and Nady will have another year in New York to determine whether or not he really is an everyday player, but the Pirates have neither the resources nor the inclination to attempt to afford two aging outfielders who are never going to be superstars.

For all the talk about the patience the Pirates showed at the plate, as usual, the stats do not bear that out. They drew a whopping 11 more walks (474 from 463), struck out 2% less (18.5% from 20.4%), which isn't bad, but they swung at more pitches out of the zone (25.35% up from 24.91%), and less pitches in the zone (62.55% down from 66.24%). They did make more contact on both pitches in the zone (89.59% up from 88.07%) and pitches out of the zone (66.09% up from 60.22%), but their BABIP was down to .293 in 2008 from .307 in 2007. That might just be bad luck, but it also might be that they swung at worse pitches. Either way, they were once again in the bottom half in the offensive rankings, due in no small part to John Russell's insistence on putting the struggling Freddy Sanchez, he of the .271/.298/.371 slash line (a freaking .669 OPS!!!) close to the top of the lineup for as many games as possible.

What's Next?:
1. Stabilize the starting rotation. This is why Bay and Nady were traded for several starting pitchers. Ian Snell has to decide whether or not he can be a real starter, and Zach Duke needs to build on a non-disastrous 2008 campaign to regain some more of the mojo he had as a rookie. Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf will be ready to push them right at the start of spring training. Daniel McCutcheon is probably bound for Indianapolis, but he won't be waiting too long before getting a shot. Can Phil Dumatrait produce anything more than lots of fly balls? Pressing issues abound.
2. Bolster the bullpen. This will most likely be the only area of free agency in which the front office is active, since they cannot afford the free agent starters out there, and as Billy Beane has shown us all, good specialty relievers can be found at relatively cheap prices.
3. Hope Sanchez and Andy LaRoche contribute something above replacement level offensively, that McLouth and Doumit produce something close to their 2008 numbers, and that Adam LaRoche somehow avoids a spring swoon like every other year.
4. Pray, pray, and pray that Andrew McCutcheon is ready early in 2009 so that McLouth can move to left and flash his Gold Glove defense at a non-premium position.
5. Hope for one more decent year offensively, and another above-average defensive year from Jack Wilson.
6. Somehow get average play from a Brandon Moss/Jason Michaels (if he's resigned)/Random Guy outfield tandem.

I may be crazy in thinking that the Pirates can contend as early as this year or 2010, but I do think it's possible. The future success of the Brewers is murky at best, but the Cubs will be a force, as will the Cardinals as long as their first baseman still breathes. It's a tough climb, but at least I feel that we managed to get a hold of some hiking boots for the journey.

Our revels now have ended.

2008-10-30T13:01:00.006-05:00

Well, congrats to the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, their fans, and the great City of Philadelphia itself, on their defeat of the American League champion Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 ~~Monday~~ ~~Tuesday~~ Wednesday night, by a score of 4-3, thus securing the franchise's second World Series Championship, their first since 1980, and the first major sports championship for any Philadelphia team since 1983. The Phiting Phills went 11-3 in the playoffs, losing just one game to the Brewers, Dodgers, and Rays, respectively. An impressive and admirable run, to be sure.

There are many of us who find it hard rooting for the Mets and Phillies, thanks to those years the Buccos spent in the NL East, but I found it much easier this time around. Perhaps it's because I do enjoy the city of Philadelphia, but I think it's more likely that it aggravated me that the Rays were so close to winning the World Series only ten years into their existence. Also, any city with teams in every major sport deserves to win one every so often, and Philly had been waiting 25 years to celebrate. I'm sure they'll keep booing everything and everyone, and they'll maintain their generally miserable personalities as sports fans (third only to Boston and New York), but I'm alright with Southeastern PA getting some time to celebrate.

(Those of you who are interested can check out Deadspin for various quotes and stories about the goings-on in and around Philadelphia after last night's victory. Always good times.)

The sabermetric community (and some in the baseball community at large) have been complaining about the managing of Joe Maddon and Charlie Manuel throughout the World Series, and rightfully so. Among other things, letting J.P. Howell bat in the waning innings of an elimination game just to let him pitch to one bater (ONE BATTER!) in the bottom half of the inning, and he didn't even get the platoon advantage! That's not to excuse Charlie Manuel's consistent use of Pedro Feliz against right-handers late in the game (or anytime, really) throughout the playoffs. Just awful managing. I could write about this for days.

Finally, in other Pirate-related news, I did something completely irrational and probably incredibly misguided today. That's right, I put down a deposit for a partial season ticket to see your Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in 2009. I don't know if it's because I just love baseball THAT much, or I just hate myself THAT much, but now that I'm back in Columbus I'll be taking in at least 20 games next season. Shoot me now.

Well, that's depressing.

2008-10-20T07:28:00.002-05:00

There are four teams that have come into existence since the last time our beloved Pittsburgh Pirates visited the postseason: The Florida Marlins (1993), The Colorado Rockies (1993), The Arizona Diamondbacks (1998), and the Tampa Bay ~~Devil~~ Rays (1998).

As of last night, all four of those teams have now won at least one league pennant since the last time the Pirates played in the postseason.

God, this team really is pretty awful.

Sad, Sad World

2008-10-06T23:41:00.002-05:00

As this list notes, your Pittsburgh Pirates, with the exception of the Texas Rangers, are the not only the proud co-owners of the record for consecutive losing seasons, but they are also the team to have gone the longest without winning a playoff series.

That series, of course, was the 1979 World Series, which happened roughly a year before I was born. That's right, I'm approaching 30 and the Pirates haven't won a playoff series in my entire lifetime. Hard to believe.

(h/t to Tom Tango over at The Book for the link.)

On a side note, my apologies for going MIA for the better part of two months. I've been working on relocating to the Columbus area and continuing my adventures in business travel, but we'll be back up and running in the very near future. Thanks to my three readers for your immense patience.

History in the Making

2008-09-07T21:38:00.001-05:00

Oddly appropriate, isn't it, that the 82nd loss of the season, securing the record-tying 16th losing season in a row for the Pittsburgh Pirates, comes on the same day that the Steelers opened their season?

The Perfect Storm

2008-08-22T11:24:00.003-05:00

Brian Cartwright, who writes over at Statistically Speaking, has improved on Tom Tango's Marcel projection system, thanks to a conversation about Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and the ~~Devil~~ Rays' prospect Reid Brignac, who was one of the players the Pirates were probably seeking in trade negotiations with the Rays.

Cartwright contended that Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss projected to be more productive offensively than Brignac, and thus he goes on to take TangoTiger's Marcel projections to the next level.

It's heady stuff, but really interesting for those that have an eye on what kind of sabermetric tools the Buccos' front office is most likely using to evaluate players.

Poetry in Motion

2008-08-21T07:34:00.003-05:00

The charts in this article put together by Dave Studeman over at The Hardball Times is probably the coolest thing that I've seen in the last few weeks.

Take a look at the National League chart. That little blue dot you see bouncing around the bottom of the graph as it goes from 1997 (the Freak Show year) through 2007 is a certain Pittsburgh team. And no, that's not a good thing.

Who Made Coup?

2008-08-19T07:49:00.003-05:00

Jim Callis of Baseball America took a look at the draft class post-signing, and came up with 5 draft "coups" for the first ten rounds (1-10), and another five for the second ten (11-20). Your Pittsburgh Pirates showed up not once, but twice. This is the world we live in? (h/t to PBC Blog for the link.)

4. Robbie Grossman, OF, Pirates (sixth round, $1 million, No. 49 on BA Top 200)
Athletic switch-hitter adds to Pittsburgh's burgeoning outfield talent.

3. Quinton Miller, RHP, Pirates (20th round, $900,000, No. 158 on BA Top 200)
He shows flashes of a low-90s fastball, plus slider and average changeup.

If memory serves, Miller is the guy that was lured away from North Carolina (surely by the $900,000 among other things), and Grossman was the highly touted high schooler who fell to the Pirates in the sixth round because everyone thought he was going to college (at the University of Texas, I think). Perhaps money can actually buy love?

On a side note, ShysterBall (who lives in my hometown of Columbus, OH) is reconsidering his opinion of PNC Park after reading a New York columnist's review following the Mets-Buccos series.

Morgan Promoted

2008-08-18T16:15:00.003-05:00

You'd like the circumstances to be better, but OF Nyjer Morgan was promoted from Indianapolis today to take the roster spot of Doug Mientkiewicz, who was placed on the bereavement list because his wife, Jodi, is undergoing heart surgery at Allegheny General.

Mientkiewicz is eligible to come off the list on Friday. As someone who has had several family members have major heart surgery in the Pittsburgh area (also at Allegheny General), I hope for a speedy recovery for Mrs. Mientkiewicz.

In happier news, the club avoided the sweep thanks to Steven Pearce, who hit a bases loaded single in the eighth to break a 2-2 tie on the way to a 5-2 win over the Mets. Paul Maholm pitched well again, but the win went to Sean Burnett, his first since 2004, after he bailed out Tyler Yates with two out and the bases loaded in the top of the eighth.

Third baseman LaRoche the Lesser went 2-3 with a walk, 2 R and 2 RBI, and John Grabow picked up his fourth save.

Uncle Charlie

2008-08-18T14:56:00.004-05:00

Derek Carty at the always relevant Hardball Times has a great article up on perhaps my favorite pitch, the curveball.

I'm obligated to link to anything that uses pitch f/x since I enjoy it so much, so this is today's portion. If you ever want to explore the pitch f/x world as it applies to active major leaguers, I highly recommend the tool that Josh Kalk put together: Go Here.

Say Hey, Pedro.

2008-08-16T08:21:00.003-05:00

The long, national nightmare is over: Pedro Alvarez is your newest Pittsburgh Pirate.

There's some really nice insight from Dejan in that post, and really, I can't say enough good things about the job that guy does on a day to day basis. He makes the Trib guys look like amateurs by comparison.

To begin, I'm willing to say that this might just signify the end of the low-spending Pirates.

To wit:

Alvarez's bonus, part of a minor league contract, far exceeded the $4 million the Pirates paid to pitcher Bryan Bullington, No. 1 overall in 2001. More striking, it was part of total spending on this 32-player draft class that approached $10 million, a figure made possible when owner Bob Nutting early last month authorized a significant increase. That total included $8,166,000 on players in the top 10 rounds and an additional $900,000 yesterday to lure the 20th-round pick, pitcher Quinton Miller.

That not only was a record for the Pirates, but also was roughly $2 million more than any major league team spent on the draft last season. The high last season was the New York Yankees' $7,655,000.

The Pirates spent more money in the draft than anyone else?!?! Be still, my heart. And even better, check this out:

The Pirates, according to one person intimately familiar with those talks, never budged off their number, and Boras' call came at 11:58 to accept.

Only certain people know whether or not that's true, but it's good to hear at least that senior management set a (by all accounts reasonable) number, stuck to it, and Super Agent Scott Boras saw the logic in that. Say what you want about Boras, but the guy is a great agent who knows how to take care of his clients, and he never passes on a good deal.

And perhaps the best quote of all:

"Bob Nutting has made a commitment to provide the club with the tools and resources necessary to return the Pirates to the greatness that this organization has achieved so often in its rich history," Coonelly said. "He has further demonstrated that commitment by his active involvement throughout this process and by providing us with the significant dollars necessary to sign Pedro Alvarez. We had to reach to sign Pedro and Bob was fully supportive of our decision."

The whole scene was a far cry from last year, when former general manager Dave Littlefield and his scouts bypassed a Boras client - Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters - and drafted reliever Danny Moskos fourth overall, drawing outrage from the public. The bulk of that was aimed at Nutting, but multiple accounts since then support the notion that it was a baseball decision rather than a financial one, despite what now has become apparent is a great gap between the two prospects in terms of talent.

There are no chimeras here, no chicanery, no ifs, ands, or buts about it: The Nuttings put up the money to fund the largest spending on a draft class in this organization's history. Of course, the criticism of them as low-spending cheapskates will come again next season if the major league roster doesn't change, simply because the players they have now don't cost much money. That of course isn't bad when you produce, but when it's been 16 seasons...

Anyway, not to go completely overboard, but this is a great signal that the changing of the guard is actually something different this time around. Pedro Alvarez was perhaps the best talent in the draft, and is easily the best player they've drafted since Andrew McCutcheon, and Bob Nutting and Frank Coonelly made sure that he was brought into the fold. Who are these Pirates? I'm not familiar with these kind of moves.

What's perhaps most interesting is how Coonelly had little regard for the slotting system that he tried to enforce while working for the Commissioner's office. Many were concerned that he would be unwilling to put up the necessary cash to sign talented draft picks for fear of going "over slot value," but when you give the 20th round pick almost a million dollars, that puts the speculation to bed, so to speak.

All in all, this is a great day to be a Pirate fan. I'm on my way to Houston to see the Astros play the Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park, but I'll be back tomorrow with more. Go Pedro!

Bayes' Theorem and Andy LaRoche

2008-08-14T09:42:00.003-05:00

Victor Wang over at The Hardball Times put together a great article today on Bayes' Theorem and applied it to Pirates' third baseman Andy LaRoche.

There's a lot in there that's pretty difficult to completely understand, so I won't try and pick apart all the gory details, but you should be relieved to read this part:

So given LaRoche’s minor league track record, he has a high probability of becoming an everyday player but a low chance of being a star. While this type of prospect might not seem too valuable, an everyday player cost controlled for six years is immensely valuable as Laroche’s surplus value using this Bayesian analysis coming into 2008 was $40 million. Making some basic assumptions about what Laroche could be expected to be paid, PECOTA had Laroche worth around $50 million in surplus value coming into 2008. So it’s good to see that the Bayesian system has a similar rating with PECOTA.

The CW doesn't like it when you trade a player of Jason Bay's caliber for four players, and none of them turn out to be super-stars, but the CW also doesn't understand how valuable it is to have productive, cheap, major league players. It's how Oakland in particular has been successful over the last ten years, despite not having a lot of (if any) marquee players.

More to come on the surprise demotion of another third baseman, Jose Bautista.

Draft Deadline Approacheth.

2008-08-13T10:09:00.004-05:00

Buster Olney took a break from writing about the Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs/Angels to chime in on the ongoing Pedro Alvarez negotiations (ESPN Insider).

He says:

Does it make sense to walk away from guaranteed millions to play independent league ball or return to college for another year, while assuming the risk of injury or diminished performance (see Matt Harrington) will damage your value?

I just don't see it. I hope Alvarez signs.

As much as I'd love to remain as optimistic as Buster (and others), I'm still 50-50 at best on whether or not a deal actually gets done. It's absolutely the right thing to do to avoid paying ridiculous amounts of money to Mr. Alvarez and his agent (the Dread Pirate Boras), and I won't necessarily fault Frank Coonnelly and/or Neal Huntington for walking away from a bad deal, but they need to find a way to sign this guy, too.

In other draft pick news, Tanner Scheppers, the second round pick out of Fresno State who is recovering from a shoulder injury, was at PNC Park yesterday to throw 25 pitches for assembled dignitaries in order to show his relative health and perhaps sign a deal before midnight Friday.

Nothing really surprising there, except this towards the middle:

Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson - the National League's top double play tandem - sat out another game yesterday.

...(record scratch)...

I'm not trying to disparage my own team (most of the time), but in what universe, exactly, are Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson the National League's best double-play tandem? Offensively, defensively, or otherwise? Offensively, especially given Sanchez's performance this year, just about everyone is better, especially Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, but also reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and some guy named Chase Utley. Defensively, Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis are probably better, as are Troy Tulowitzki and whoever is playing second base that day. That's just off the top of my head.

Screw it, just take a look at the numbers (h/t to Baseball-Reference.com, and Baseball Prospectus, as always):

Offense:

Freddy Sanchez: .249/.271/.347, 66 OPS+ (!!!!) among NL second basemen. -11.1 VORP, by far the worst among NL second basemen. That's "terrible, god-awful, miserable, never should be in the top of the lineup, or the lineup at all" bad.

Jack Wilson: .271/.319/.331, 85 OPS+ among NL shortstops. 1.7 VORP, meaning he's played just above replacement level when he's played at all. The only consolation is that Brian Bixler (-6.9 VORP) and Luis Rivas (-3.3 VORP) have actually played worse.

Defense:

Freddy Sanchez: He's still got well above average range for a second baseman, as his range factor indicates (5.21 RF9 vs. 4.82 LgRF9), and he's only made 7 errors, but his FRAR (fielding runs above replacement) for the season is at 0, and his FRAA (fielding runs above average) is at -21. That speaks for itself.

Jack Wilson: J-Dub also has above average range (5.10 RF9 vs. 4.43 LgRF9), but his FRAR is only at 9, and his FRAA is a stunning 0. Again, when he's played this year, it's been at replacement level. It boggles my mind that people don't understand why teams aren't throwing the Pirates three good prospects for this guy.

Feel free to email the Trib and let them know how ridiculous this homerism looks to even mildly intelligent people.

Craig Hansen and Pitch f/x

2008-08-12T14:28:00.003-05:00

David Golebiewski, a man with a truly Pittsburgh-esque name and a Duquesne student, wrote a piece for Driveline Mechanics (an extremely interesting pitching blog) where he took a look at the Pitch f/x data for Pirates' reliever Craig Hansen to perhaps determine whether or not Mr. Hansen would be as successful as the Red Sox hoped when they drafted him.

His conclusions aren't particularly pretty, but not entirely hopeless either. He finds that basically:

1. Hansen has below-average movement on his fastball, which gets hit hard despite an average speed of 95 MPH, particularly by left-handers.

2. His sometimes devastating slider is just that: crippling at times, hanging at others.

3. He might want to throw his changeup more often, particularly to left-handed batters, simply to give them something else to think about in the hopes of reducing that .315/.401/.476 line against lefties.

Given that he wasn't the centerpiece of the Jason Bay trade, I'm comfortable agreeing with David's conclusion that the chances for Hansen living up to his high potential are far less than 50-50. Let's hope at least that he can become a mostly reliable middle reliever to set the table for Matt Capps.

Ryan "The Real Deal" Doumit

2008-08-09T15:28:00.002-05:00

Eric Seidman writing at FanGraphs has an entry up today on perhaps the second-best offensive catcher in the NL, our own Ryan Doumit.

Seidman concludes (as would any reasonable person) that Doumit is due for a regression to the mean, but only a slight one at this point, which will probably leave him with 18 HR and an .866 OPS for his final season stats.

Considering he spent another chunk of time on the DL this year, that's nothing to sneeze at. It's no wonder the beat reporters have been including talk of the club signing Doumit to an extension in the off-season, along with teen hearthrob Nate McClouth.

Sea Change

2008-08-05T04:55:00.003-05:00

Anyone wondering whether or not Neal Huntington knows what he's doing will be encouraged by the last line from Dejan's game story today:

The Pirates' 455 walks are the most in the National League, third-most in Major League Baseball.

Get on base, and the runs will come. Someone owes hitting coach Don Long a drink or fifty after this season is over. The job he has done with the offense this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Now, if pitching coach Jeff Andrews could turn some of the terrible starting pitching around, we might actually have a real baseball team on our hands.

For now, I'll take what I can get. Things are getting better, right? .....Right?

Neyer Weighs In

2008-08-04T16:02:00.003-05:00

It's a poorly kept secret that Rob Neyer is one of my favorite baseball writers, given that he is one of the few at ESPN who embrace the statistical side of baseball with both zest and vigor. I was hoping that he would write more at length about both deals, but he gave us some words today regarding the Bay/Ramirez trade. (ESPN Insider required)

To wit:

I'll note a slight sea change here; it's not until recently that a GM would publicly credit statistical analysts. In fact, many GMs didn't even want the
public to know they talked to statistical analysts at all.

I wasn't thrilled with the Xavier Nady deal, from the Pirates' perspective. Jose Tabata's star seems to have fallen (though of course he's still young).

But I love the Jason Bay deal. When you trade a great (or near-great)player, you have to get back a player who's got a real chance of being great. In Andy LaRoche, the Pirates got that player. The Pirates could have kept Jason Bay for the rest of this season and all of next season at a reasonable price. After that he'd have been gone as a free agent. They'll control LaRoche's contract through 2013, and if you could assign a dollar value to Bay through 2009 and LaRoche through 2013, LaRoche would come out way ahead.

The Pirates also picked up Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen, who both have non-zero chances of becoming useful major leaguers for at least a few years. And Bryan Morris, while still a long ways from the majors, immediately becomes one of the Pirates' top pitching prospects. All of whom make the package the Pirates got for Bay significantly more valuable than what the Rays were supposedly offering.
Neal Huntington still has plenty of work to do. But he's on the right
track.

Amen to that.

The Wizard

2008-08-04T10:29:00.002-05:00

Great article from JoePo today on Greg Maddux, the only Brave from my lifetime besides John Smoltz that I've ever liked.

I'm on the road in the greater Ohio Valley this week, and I might visit the Great American Ballpark this weekend, since I've never been there. Exciting times. I'll do my best to say something worthwhile in the near future.

Also, much love to Xavier Nady, who had 6 RBI in the Yankee's 14-9 win over the Angels yesterday.

Stop, Drop, KABOOM.

2008-07-31T17:02:00.007-05:00

Well, with all the trade talk and speculation swirling around Jason Bay since, what, last September, did anyone see the Dodgers mentioned?

Yeah, me neither, but it has happened. The team site and others are reporting that Pirates LF Jason Bay was traded to the Red Sox in a three-team deal with the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Red Sox sent MannyBManny to the Dodgers, and pitcher Craig Hansen and outfielder Brandon Moss to the Buccos, while the Dodgers sent pitching prospect Bryan Morris and third baseman Andy LaRoche to the Pirates to complete the deal.

I'd say the Red Sox come out about even in this deal, while the Dodgers unload a guy they should have been playing but weren't, and a high ceiling prospect, in order to jam up their already crowded outfield, which includes two overpaid, old center fielders. So, Joe Torre gets to decide who will play the three spots between Andre Either/Matt Kemp/MannyBManny/Andruw Jones/Juan Pierre. Good thing he's not still in New York.

The Dodgers are trying to make a run, and that's fine, but god only knows why they continue to jam up their major league outfield. The Red Sox are screwed with their fans unless A.) Bay plays very well, not just well, but very well, and/or B.) They win the World Series. Considering that Bay has never had to face intense media scrutiny, I'm interested to see how his year and a half in Boston plays out.

My favorite part of this is that Neal Huntington is showing that he has the brass to send away a "franchise" player, and blow this thing up for younger talent if he thinks it's the right thing to do. Instead of signing him to a long-term deal (like Cam Bonifay), or trading him for pennies on the dollar (like Dave Littlefield), Mr. Huntington has done well (by my humble estimation) in his first trip through the trading deadline.

Though I enjoyed Jason Bay's work for most of his career with the Pirates, I will have to admit that he always left me waiting for him to take the next step and become an elite player, mostly because the Pirates hadn't had one since (pre-PE) Barry Bonds. His most similar batter by age is Geoff Jenkins (974), which sounds about right. Jim Edmonds and J.D. Drew are in there too at lower numbers (remember defense isn't considered), and they say just what the numbers should say about Bay: he's a very productive major leaguer with good power who will produce All-Star seasons in his prime. Now that his prime is ending, it was the right time to let him go. He's wanted to play for a winner for years, and so I wish him the best in Boston. You can bet that if the ~~Devil~~ Rays don't make the playoffs, I'll sheepishly root for the Sox this year on account of Mr. Bay.

We'll tackle the specifics of the players acquired later, but for now, I'm quite happy with four young quality prospects in exchange for one and a half years of Jason Bay at age 29 and 30. Is something wrong with me that I'm actually enjoying the trade deadline for once?

Bay and Grabow Traded?

2008-07-30T22:13:00.002-05:00

Baseball Prospectus is reporting that a three-way trade between the Marlins, Red Sox, and your Pittsburgh Pirates that is currently pending Commissioner Selig's approval will send Jason Bay and John Grabow to the Red Sox in return for 24-year-old Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida and three prospects, two from the Red Sox, and one from the Marlins. Mercurial outfielder MannyBManny goes to the Marlins along with a Red Sox prospect, and some money to cover his remaining salary.

Obviously a lot depends on who the prospects are, but at least up front, that sounds like reasonable return for the affordable Bay, who is under team control through 2009, and the reliable (if overworked) Grabow, who is immediately a bona fide LOOGY for the Sox.

The difference between MannyBManny and Bay is not that large (at least this season), and Grabow gives them much needed left-handed help, but if I'm Theo, I'm not sure I pull the trigger on this deal. It seems more likely that this is the kind of trade that falls apart at the last minute, and the Sox go "Gee Manny, we tried, I guess we just have to finish the season together," while they make a run at the World Series. Then in the off-season, they don't pick up Manny's option, and hope they can otherwise swing a deal for Bay or Matt Holliday, or someone like that who didn't get traded by tomorrow. Then again, Theo makes a ton of money and has a legion of female admirers, while I write a Pirates blog that no one reads. Something tells me his decision-making skills might be better than mine.

Personally, I've never disliked the Marlins (though I hate looking at their stadium), so it will be interesting to see what they can do with MannyBManny in that spacious outfield. That would make at least a third of their defense (the two Ramirez boys and Dan Uggla) comprised of guys who have deplorable skills with the glove. Seeing MannyBManny running around in left at Pro Player Field at Dolphins Stadium will be interesting to say the least.

We'll wait and see, I guess.

Also: The Baseball America prospects blog has a brief story about Ryan Tucker, the Marlins' AA player who's been jerked around all night with all the impending trade talk.

More Self Service

2008-07-29T11:32:00.002-05:00

Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus wrote an article for SI which (in part) reviewed the Nady/Marte trade from a much more reasonable perspective.

BP has Marte's expected wins at 3.149 for 2008. Assuming he adds one more (which is generous) this year, and they pick up the option for 2009 at the same rate, that means he gives the Yankees approximately five wins between now and the end of his contract.

BP has Nady's WARP3 (which includes defense) at 8.8 wins for 2008, and assuming he adds one more, and keeps the same production in 2009 (which he won't, but whatever), that means he gives the Yankees approximately 11 wins between now and free agency.

That makes 16 wins (generously) before Nady and Marte hit the open market after next season, in exchange for a potential phenom in Tabata who is under at least six years of team control, and two to three major league or close to major league pitchers who will be in the organization until at least 2011.

Anyone care to speculate on the VORP involved there? I guarantee you it's greater than 16 wins between now and next September.

Self Service

2008-07-28T09:27:00.003-05:00

I think it's fair to say that most of the feedback regarding the Nady/Marte trade has been negative towards the return that the Pirates received. As I said over the weekend, I think that's misguided, considering the Bucs traded guys who had some short-term value for team-controlled guys with considerably more long-term value, among other reasons.

Well, it seems that I am not alone in that thinking, thankfully:

First, Peter Bendix of Behind the Box Score takes a look at Nady's production against right-handed pitching, which is up this year from his career averages, and concludes that it is unlikely that Xavier suddenly figured out how to hit righties at 29. To be fair, that's not what the Yankees wanted him for, and he still has value for his high numbers against lefties.

Secondly, the aforementiond Mr. Bendix gives a more general view of the Pirates' return on this trade, and has favorable things to say about the deal, namely:

Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte are luxuries, nice to have if you can afford them but certainly not core players. As such, they are unlikely to bring in any top flight talent along the lines of a Matt LaPorta. The Pirates are in the position where they need quantity almost as much as they need quality, and they received both in this deal. While none of the pitchers are likely to be as good as a Phil Hughes or even an Ian Kennedy, we are talking about three pitchers with an excellent chance of helping a major league roster in each of the next six years; not to mention the fact that McCutchen and Ohlendorf could prove to be above-league-average pieces. Furthermore, despite his problems this year, Jose Tabata is still only 19 years old and thus has plenty of time to figure it out (both on and off the field).

This article from, of all places, The New York Post, includes a telling quote from "an AL executive" (Mark Shapiro, perhaps?) who said the following:

"For Pittsburgh, it's not a great trade talent-wise, but I like what it represents...A lot rides on Tabata, who is a tool shed. Although there are concerns about his health, power and perhaps his makeup, he has the potential to be an impact player at a premium position by the time the Pirates should be competing again. Although not perfect because Ohlendorf is a middle man - maybe better in the NL - and the two other guys are long shots, it is precisely the type of deal the Pirates should be making: That is, one that exchanges impending free agents for potentially premier talent that is more suited to their time horizon. It is also the type of deal that the Pittsburgh club had not been making in recent years, despite it being in its best interest."

Lastly, Fan Graphs chimed in over the weekend with an entry that basically says the percentages point to 2008 Nady looking more like 2007 Nady in the second half of this season. Again, not that there's anything wrong with that.

This morning I actually read someone compare this trade to the Jason Schmidt and Aramis Ramirez deals, which is absolutely ridiculous. Those deals were (impending) salary dumps, where the Bucs got NOTHING in return, and this deal is nowhere close to that level of futility. To buy low on a high-risk, high-reward prospect and get three starting pitchers who can at least help the major league club in the very near future is at the very least decent return for a rental LOOGY and a guy who would be a platoon outfielder on any team other than the Pirates.

As you can tell, I'm frustrated by all this. The notion that the Pirates get screwed on these deals every year by the smarter, richer big market teams is blinding people from seeing that this actually was a good deal for the Bucs. It was a good deal for the Yankees too, but the MSM needs to declare a "winner" and a "loser" so Skip Bayless has something to freak out about on whatever they call Cold Pizza now.

Not that we ever really did, but can we get back to talking baseball and making use of common sense instead of overreacting to everything? It's apparently not likely.

Happy Trails

2008-07-26T19:38:00.000-05:00

"It's been a challenging process, I've never seen young prospects have greater value."

- Pirates GM Neal Huntington

What bothers me the most about the conventional wisdom regarding the Nady/Marte trade is that very few people who supposedly have a strong interest in baseball seem to have missed the market trend that is placing a historically high value on high-ceiling young talent. The CW about this trade is that, at the very least, the Pirates did not get enough return on their "two best" trade chips, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. First of all, according to this market, pending the signing of Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates' best trade chip is probably Andrew McCutchen. He would certainly net the highest return. After that, it probably starts with Jason Bay and progresses through several others (including Nate McClouth) before getting to Nady and Marte.

Secondly, this quote from the recent Trib article tells you all you need to know about the trade:

During yesterday's Yankees-Red Sox broadcast, Fox baseball analyst Tim McCarver called it "a steal" for New York. But other pundits disagree.

If Tim McCarver is on one side, you want to be on the other. That's all I have to say about that.

My basic analysis of this trade is that it was a fair exchange for market value, considering what the Pirates gave up and what the Yankees had to offer. Apparently for the local fans and the ESPN bobbleheads to think a trade is successful, Mr. Huntington is going to have to rob someone blind, and that's not going to happen with Brian Cashman. That's why we keep Ed Wade around.

Tabata is really the linch pin in the whole deal. He's an enigmatic 19-year-old already playing at the AA level, though his numbers this year have been less than stellar. Supposedly he has middle of the order power potential, though he hasn't yet shown it, considering he's 19 and all. Ohlendorf is just the type of pitcher we supposedly need, a big hard-throwing righty with a mid-90s fastball and good sinking stuff. Karstens and McCutchen the Lesser, despite what anyone else says, are an improvement over the John Van Benschotens, Ty Taubenheims, Yoslan Herreras and Jimmy Barthmaiers of the world.

We'll take a look at the stats tomorrow, but for now I don't think this trade looks nearly as bad as most have made it out to be. Nady is in his Age 29 season and having what will be the best year of his career. The 33-year-old Marte is a LOOGY on a decent team, and always will be (not that there's anything wrong with that). He's also a free agent at the end of the year who will probably become compensatory picks. The Yankees were not going to give up Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, or Austin Jackson for these two guys, not in this market.

In the end, Neal Huntington did exactly what he said he was going to do, which was take the expendable parts of the major league roster and turn it into minor league depth, particularly pitching. It was what Dave Littlefield could never do, so I'll at least give him credit for that.

Marte and Nady Traded

2008-07-25T19:26:00.002-05:00

According to the team website, the club has agreed to trade outfielder Xavier Nady and relief pitcher Damaso Marte to an undisclosed team, perhaps together, perhaps separately. Details on the team(s) and player(s) involved are not yet available, but there is rampant speculation that the Yankees are involved. I guess we'll see what happens.

Who's looking forward to some trade analysis in this space tomorrow? This guy.

On the Move

2008-07-21T09:51:00.003-05:00

The "stars" of your Pittsburgh Pirates aren't the only ones preoccupied with moving trucks these days. Your humble author has been in the process as well for the last couple weeks, hence the lack of recent activity in this space. As things begin to settle for me, and as the hot stove leading up to the 7/31 trade deadline gets warmer, hopefully there will be some more activity here.

For now, I bring you these:

Dejan says that Jack Wilson has U-Haul on speed dial, further advancing the "no one is safe" refrain that we've heard from Neal Huntington's crew since their arrival. Given that the best option is the as yet unproven Brian Bixler, and that Wilson is reasonably priced for his performance, if he maintains it through the remainder of his contract, I'd imagine the asking price is somewhat high.

Ed Price from The Newark Star-Ledger reports that the Yankees are stepping up their chase of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Bay and Johnny Damon could split time in left field seeing who can make the slowest throw to home plate. As weak as Bay's arm is some days, I think Damon has him beat. One of my favorite lines about Johnny Damon when he was with the Red Sox was "Johnny Damon: Looks like Jesus, throws like Mary."

If you asked me (and let's assume you did), here's my "most likely to be traded" list (from most to least likely):

1. Xavier Nady: Neal plays it smart and sells high. He'll be hurt again in three weeks, and this will be the best season of his career. One more year before free agency should bring a decent return.

2. John Grabow: Overused or not, he's only 30 and has another arbitration year in 2009. The heavy hitters are short on proven lefty relief, and he could net a nicer return than Marte.

3. Damaso Marte: We'll see what happens. It's a Harvey Dent coin flip at this point.

4. Jack Wilson: Rivas and Gomez can't play short, Bixler's not there. Jumpin' Jack Flash goes and losing season number 16 is all but guaranteed.

5. Jason Bay: The one real All-Star on this team. Sending Bay off for pitching prospects a year and a half before he hits free agency will alienate a ton of the fan base, even if it's the smart thing to do. This is the official throwing in of the towel for this season, as well as 2009.

Let the games begin.

The Real All-Stars

2008-07-15T08:13:00.003-05:00

The man they call Pizza Cutter over at the great blog Statistically Speaking has an entry up this morning on who he thinks the real All-Stars should be. Now granted, he uses a different selection criteria than the current system, so the results are noticeably different, but not surprisingly, his system favors the players whose performance dictates they should play in the Mid-Summer Classic.

For those of you who have not yet read the article, I'll spoil the fun. Not only do the Pirates have more than one representative, they actually have three. Congrats to the "real" All-Stars: Nate McClouth, Jason Bay, and...Ryan Doumit. Sorry, Mr. Nady, but that NL outfield is just a little too crowded, since this team actually has to include Pat Burrell. (And no, Alfonso Soriano and Fukudome did not make the cut this time.)

Trade Winds

2008-07-11T14:26:00.004-05:00

From mlbtraderumors.com:

SI.com's Tom Heyman is reporting that OF Jason Bay is drawing interest from two NL teams (The D-Backs and Cardinals) in addition to the usual suspects (The ~~Devil~~ Rays and Mets). The article mentions similar interest in Xavier Nady.

The part that I thought was interesting was the prospects that were mentioned as the Pirates' targets in supposed deals with Arizona and St. Louis: Arizona 2B Emilio Bonaficio and STL CF Colby Rasmus, considered elite prospects and perhaps the best in each of those respective farm systems.

Given the struggles of one Frederick Sanchez at second this year, and the current administration's continuing emphasis on building organizational depth, I can see why Bonaficio's name would get mentioned; that trade would be more than defensible. But Rasmus? The Pirates' best prospect is, far and away, Andrew McCutchen, who is already the CF at AAA, and is universally expected to be in the big leagues absolutely no later than the start of the 2010 season. Rasmus is already at AAA and projects to be very similar to McCutchen, with perhaps a stronger arm (and an earlier arrival date), but basically the same skill set. I guess you could trade both Bay and Nady, move McClouth to RF, and play Cutch and Rasmus in LF and CF in whatever arrangement you'd prefer. I would think that given the dearth of pitching depth throughout this organization, the top targets for trading Bay and Nady, who play at perhaps the only positions where there is at least a little depth, would be more than one or two quality pitching prospects. I guess we'll see.

Also from The Detroit Free Press, there are the usual rumors about Damaso Marte and John Grabow for this time of year. Given Capps' injury, I think it's increasingly likely that Marte finishes the season and turns himself into compensation picks when he signs with the Red Sox (who are DYING for left-handed relief) after the season. This is the part where I play sportswriter and say "of course, he could also be traded soon if someone makes the right offer," so I can say basically nothing and take credit for being right later.

Keep those brooms in the closet.

2008-07-10T09:30:00.004-05:00

FanGraphs is one of my favorite baseball sites to visit everyday, mostly because it's perhaps the most informative AND aesthetically pleasing sabermetric site out there. You can even export their leaderboards to Excel files and adjust them at your leisure. Also, it's completely free. So, if you want to know that Jason Bay is third among NL OF in WPA (Win Probability Added), and that Nate McClouth and Xavier Nady are fifth and sixth, respectively, FanGraphs is the place for you. And yes, that means that no outfield in baseball has done more to help its team win games than the starting outfield of your Pittsburgh Pirates. Shocking, isn't it?

In addition to being free to use and peruse, another great feature about FanGraphs are these WPA and Leverage graphs that they do for each game, which show you the most important plays that happen, and their effect on each team's chance of winning said game. Obviously, the picture at the top of the page is from last night's Pirates/Astros tilt at PNC Park, where completely overworked righty specialist Tyler Yates gave up what proved to be the two winning runs in the seventh inning, with some help from Sean Burnett. As you can see, the highest leverage situation was Yates' at bat against Kaz Matsui, which ended with Matsui doubling in Mark Loretta to give the Astros a 6-4 lead.

I have thoughts on the All-Star Game selections, mostly that Pat Burrell ought to be standing with a picket sign outside of Bud Selig's house, but also that the wrong Bucco outfielder got picked for the game if they were going to take just one. We'll get to that; I promise. For now, everything is leading up to the long-awaited finale of the Yankees series, which will be played out today, starring lefty Paul Maholm and Yankee hurler Mike Mussina. It should be good times.

Gorzelanny Demoted

2008-07-05T16:56:00.004-05:00

Well, I can't say that I saw this coming.

I guess the new regime was not kidding around when they said that accountability would be a theme for 2008. The demotion of Ronny Paulino was somewhat predictable, given the play of Doumit, and John Russell's love of the experience and "grinder" mentality that Raul Chavez has and Paulino probably lacks.

But Gorzelanny? How does a team desperate for halfway-decent starting pitching demote a healthy starter who won 14 games last year unless it's to send a message that getting lit up by the Brewers is not acceptable.

Here are Gorzelanny's splits this season:

Overall: 6-7, 17 GS, 87.2 IP, 61 BB, 53 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.825 WHIP, 64 ERA+ (!)

Home: 5-1 W/L, 9 GS, 50.2 IP, 34 BB, 30 K, 4.62 ERA, 1.697 WHIP
Road: 1-6 W/L, 8 GS, 37 IP, 27 BB, 23 K, 9.24 ERA, 2.0 WHIP

Both of those are not good, but those road stats are horrible. His BABIP is .300 at home and .304 on the road, so nothing about this has to do with bad luck. When you're putting two guys on base every inning on the road, there's no way you're getting out of there alive.

Put plainly and simply, the guy is just not throwing strikes that don't get hit into oblivion. That 0.868 K/BB ratio, in the words of Charles Barkley, is "just turrible." Let's hope a little vacation to central Indiana will be just what the doctor ordered for Major Tom.

The bigger concern, perhaps, is who is going to fill Gorzelanny's shoes in the rotation. Phil Dumatrait and Ian Snell are supposed to come off the DL this week, and teen hearthrob John Van Benschoten is still with the team, but we know how well things go when he starts. Another start for Jimmy Barthmaier, perhaps? I guess we'll see.

Bucco Blitz: Gimme a Break Edition

2008-07-02T18:11:00.007-05:00

So, I had intended to write an entry earlier today about how overworked the bullpen continues to be, as evidenced by last night's extra-inning craziness, but Blogger has been giving me problems at my place of regular employment (something about cookies, oddly enough). Then, of course, this happened. Five blown saves in less than a month (the only five all season) was apparently enough of a warning sign for the team to suggest he get an MRI. I'll throw Neil Huntington a bone and say that the team is at least being proactive, though it doesn't help to lose your closer for eight weeks. Things like this happen randomly, but wouldn't it be a little more reasonable to think that the guy was getting just a little too much work? I'm not going to draw a conclusion until I get that internet medical degree in the mail, but hopefully the same ailment (or something worse) doesn't befall the other three guys in the bullpen that are being used just about every day (Mssrs. Marte, Grabow, and Yates).

Speaking of which, are we to assume that Damaso Marte steps into the closer role, given that he filled in earlier this year, and LHPs outnumber RHPs in the bullpen? Probably. Marte's OPS+ is 72 in high leverage situations, which is above his OPS+ in middle and low leverage situations, but still more than respectable. Let the Marte era begin. The bullpen is dead; long live the bullpen.

Speaking of said bullpen, yes, it is still overworked. The bullpen has already pitched 293 innings this year, which would put them well beyond last year's 514 2/3 if the current pace keeps up. The team the Pirates "could be," those plucky ~~Devil~~ Rays, have only had to make use of their bullpen for 246 inning so far this year. Basically, this all just reinforces the point that the starters have to pitch better, thus the bullpen has to pitch less, for the team to be competitive in the second half. This should not be news to anyone.

Also worth mentioning is that the Pirates have the worst Defensive Efficiency Rating in all of baseball at 0.682, just behind the Reds at 0.683. What that means, basically, is that the Pirates have the lowest percentage of balls in play converted to outs. For a staff that doesn't strike many batters out (and thus puts a lot of balls in play), that's a recipe for disaster, and the defense bears an unrecognized chunk of the responsibility for the pitchers' poor performance so far.

And in other news...

- Steve Pearce will take Capps' spot on the 25-man roster.

- Dejan convers some more ground regarding batting the pitcher in the eighth spot in his Q&A today. AOL also has an article on the same topic. Paul Meyer also says we haven't seen the last of it. (He's right, as JVB is in the eight spot against the Reds this evening.)

- The geniuses (genii?) over at Fire Joe Morgan had about five updates today, one of which included some priceless Dusty Baker comments on Dunn and Griffey matching up against Pirate pitchers. Find the entry for "Gallimaufry Time!" and read to the bottom. Priceless.

- Joe Starkey turns in the same column from last week. Go Joe! To quote the man himself: "It's easy to be critical now." Keep going for that low-hanging fruit, buddy.

- The Pirates are waiting to exhale before signing Tanner Scheppers, who may or may not be injured still. He's expected to come to Pittsburgh on July 27 to do various tests, including throwing a few pitches for assembled dignitaries.

52 Years in the Making

2008-06-30T16:37:00.004-05:00

Having decided to do his best Tony LaRussa impression, Pirates manager John Russell will bat starting pitcher Paul Maholm in the 8th slot in the lineup for tonight's game agains the Cincinnati Reds, set to start in about an hour and a half.

Russell is perhaps seeking to take advantage of Ken Griffey, Jr.'s absence from the lineup due to his poor performance against LHPs by inserting the sweet-swinging Maholm, he of the career .159/.217/.168 line against RHPs, into a lineup spot other than ninth, where he was clearly being wasted.

This marks the first time a Pirate pitcher has started at any place in the order other than ninth since 1956. Just for reference, 1956 was Roberto Clemente's second year in the big leagues.

(Note: I actually don't think this is a terrible idea, batting Maholm between Mientkiewicz and Wilson. It probably won't make a difference, but it's not completely stupid, which is a step in the right direction when we're talking about Bucco managers of the last 10 years.)

Checking in with PECOTA

2008-06-29T23:03:00.003-05:00

First, for those of you who may be unfamiliar with PECOTA, go here for a primer.

I thought it would be somewhat interesting, given the dismal performance of the team in inter-league play again this year, to check in with the PECOTA projections for the main position players (pitchers to come later in the week) and see how they are doing at the halfway mark. Shall we?

Catcher:
Ryan Doumit (Actual): .342/.387/.619, 10HR, 24 RBI, .354 EqA, 21.6 VORP
Ryan Doumit (PECOTA): .270/.340/.460, 10HR, 37 RBI, .280 EqA, 11.7 VORP
Breakout: 26%, Improve: 55%, Collapse: 26%, Attrition: 28%

First Base:
Adam LaRoche (Actual): .220/.297/.358, 7 HR, 31 RBI, .237 EqA, -4.6 VORP (!)
Adam LaRoche (PECOTA): .270/.350/.480, 24 HR, 84 RBI, .290 EqA, 18.7 VORP
Breakout: 17%, Improve: 47%, Collapse: 21%, Attrition: 16%

Second Base:
Freddy Sanchez (Actual): .232/.261/.317, 5HR, 32 RBI, .204 EqA, -12.7 VORP (Team Worst)
Freddy Sanchez (PECOTA): .300/.340/.430, 10 HR, 68 RBI, .270 EqA, 25.0 VORP
Breakout: 11%, Improve: 33%, Collapse: 25%, Attrition: 6%

Third Base:
Jose Bautista (Actual): .263/.332/.439, 9 HR, 35 RBI, .275 EqA, 6.2 VORP
Jose Bautista (PECOTA): .260/.340/.440, 18 HR, 71 RBI, .280 EqA, 17.6 VORP
Breakout: 34%, Improve: 60%, Collapse: 25%, Attrition: 6%

Shortstop:
Jack Wilson (Actual): .305/.341./.339, 0 HR, 10 RBI, .268 EqA, 3.9 VORP
Jack Wilson (PECOTA): .270/.320/.390, 9 HR, 52 RBI, .260 EqA, 13.4 VORP
Breakout: 22%, Improve: 46%, Collapse: 20%, Attrition: 17%

Left Field:
Jason Bay (Actual): .284/.389/.533, 16 HR, 42 RBI, .331 EqA, 28.7 VORP
Jason Bay (PECOTA): .270/.360/.490, 25 HR, 82 RBI, .300 EqA, 26.1 VORP
Breakout: 15%, Improve: 43%, Collapse: 18%, Attrition: 10%

Center Field:
Nate McClouth (Actual): .283/.362/.527, 15 HR, 51 RBI, .319 EqA, 28.5 VORP
Nate McClouth (PECOTA): .270/.340/.450, 12 HR, 47 RBI, .280 EqA, 15.2 VORP
Breakout: 31%, Improve: 72%, Collapse: 15%, Attrition: 24%

Right Field:
Xavier Nady (Actual): .316/.379/.516, 10 HR, 49 RBI, .319 EqA, 20.5 VORP
Xavier Nady (PECOTA): .280/.340/.470, 16 HR, 65 RBI, .280 EqA, 15.2 VORP
Breakout: 26%, Improve: 57%, Collapse: 15%, Attrition: 14%

Review:

Obviously, the outfield has outperformed everyone's expectations, and at least the slash nubmers for McClouth and Nady will come back toward the projections slightly. It's interesting to see that Bay, McClouth, Nady, and Doumit are all already above their VORP projections (measured in runs) for the year. It also warrants mentioning that Bay, McClouth, and Nady are all among the top 12 in the NL in EqA, and those three plus Doumit are in the top 20 in the NL for Runs above Position. That's a productive crew.

I was surprised to be reminded that Bautista's breakout and improve percentages were so high, but if anyone is doubting whether or not PECOTA is accurate, just take a look at Jose's projections. Aside from his VORP, he's basically dead on his projection numbers at the halfway mark.

Then there's the bad news. Obviously LaRoche is hurting the offense, as we all know, but I don't think anyone realizes how bad it's gotten with Freddy Sanchez. Not only is his VORP the worst on the team (including pitchers, but just with respect to their hitting), but his slash stats and his .204 EqA are just abysmal. This is the guy John Russell has hitting in the second spot in the order as recently as TODAY. The guy is clearly hurt, and the longer he keeps playing, the more damage he does to himself and the team.

It'll be interesting to see how these play out as the season goes along. My guess is that Nady's numbers will be influenced greatly by another team, as he will most likely be traded in the next month, but it'll be fun to see how McClouth and Doumit finish, as well as whether or not LaRoche can swing his way back into PECOTA's favor.

Extra Innings

2008-06-28T23:40:00.003-05:00

Pinch me, because it's late and I must be dreaming. Not only did a replacement starter from Indianapolis, one Ty Andrew Taubenheim, go six strong innings and only give up two runs, but the (supposedly) un-clutch star, Mr. Jason Bay, does his best Josh Gibson impression (thanks to the Negro League tribute uniforms) in order to hit a game-winning walk-off home run in the bottom of the 13th inning. THE John Van Benschoten even wound up with a win after pitching a perfect 13th!

This also happened in inter-league play, against the team which currently holds the lead in the AL Wild Card race. Not a bad end to anyone's Saturday night, particularly mine, as I'm bleary-eyed already and it's only 11:30pm.

The rubber match starts tomorrow at 1:35pm EDT, featuring the battler that is Tom Gorzelanny going up against Andy Sonnanstine. Oh God, does this mean that we'll see the red uniforms, since it's a Sunday home game? Hopefully not.

Also, since this was his last week as editor at Deadspin, does anyone else think that Jason Bay is just a taller, (much much) more athletic version of Will Leitch? Discuss.

"Supplies!"

2008-06-26T13:45:00.003-05:00

The PG is reporting that Ian "Can't you Snell that" Snell has been placed on the 15-Day disabled list to accomdate the addition of Denny Bautista to the 25-man roster. Snell will be eligible to come off the DL on July 8th, when the team is in Houston.

As Dejan says, this is somewhat surprising, given that Snell was supposed to be throwing a full bullpen session today or tomorrow. Not to be openly biased towards the organization instead of the player, but I doubt the injury has taken a turn for the more serious; it's more likely they're giving him extra rest and time to figure out why he hasn't pitched well this year.

Joba Rules

2008-06-26T11:53:00.005-05:00

Well, back to the old grind, it seems. After putting up a 12-spot against the Bombers the night before, the Pirates followed that up with 0 runs on 8 hits in a 10-0 loss last night. The stars of the evening were El Capitan himself, Derek Jeter, who went 3-3 with two doubles, 3 runs scored, and an RBI, as well as Bobby Abreu, who went 3-5 with 2R and 4 RBI, and of course the aforementioned Joba Chamberlain, who ate his way through the lineup, going 6 2/3 with 6H, 1BB, and 7 K. He frequently hit 98 on the gun, and even drew a full-count walk (!) from Zach Duke, on his way to his first win and his first decision as a starter.

Really, there's nothing more to say here other than that this is what good teams do the night after they lose 12-5. (See the Chicago series last week for an example of what good teams don't do.) Jack Wilson mangled a couple throws on some tough ground balls, as good defensive shortstops are wont to do, and for some God-unknown reason, Luis Rivas had a bat in his hand against Chamberlain with Jason Michaels resting comfortably on the bench.

The rubber match starts at 7:05pm, with Paul Maholm squaring off against Mike Mussina, whose 10-5 record is a little inflated, but he's apparently still quite good, though he has been average at best in his last few starts. Maholm has gotten wins in his last two decisions, and like the other starters, has pitched well at home. Of course, this means Maholm will probably implode and Mussina will throw a no-hitter. If nothing else, it might be an opportunity for Pittsburgh residents to chant "Moooooose" for the first time since Johan Hedberg left town.

Let's Go Bucs!

Notes:

- Paul Meyer has been live-blogging the Yankees series for the PG, so I assume the same will be going on today.

- Derek Jeter joins the long list of people who think PNC Park is awesome (scroll down).

- Jimmy Barthmaier will be taking Phil Dumatrait's scheduled start on Friday against the ~~Devil~~ Rays. Whither John Van Benschoten? Someone will have to come off the 25-man roster to accomodate Barthmaier's promotion.

- Xavier Nady is expected to be in the lineup tonight after missing several games with a sore shoulder. There's also word in that article that The Candy Man, Al Oliver, and Bill Virdon will be signing autographs from 6-7pm tonight on the Riverwalk at PNC Park. Also, Johnny Damon is a Red Wings fan. I knew there was something I didn't like about that guy, other than he plays for the Yankees and shaved off that beautiful beard.

- On the farm: Steve Pearce and Neil Walker went for back-to-back HRs last night for Indy, in their 5-0 one-hit win over Buffalo. Bryan Bullington, Jesse Chavez, and Mariano Salas cemented their status as AAAA players by combining their efforts on the one-hit bid. Also, Pearce is now hitting .296/.344/.605 in June, so perhaps he's become able to adjust to hitting more off-speed stuff.

But we already have a Bautista.

2008-06-25T16:12:00.006-05:00

The PG is reporting that the Pirates have acquired Tigers' reliever Denny Bautista (not to be confused with Danny Bautista), who came off the disabled list (shoulder tendonitis) earlier in the month and was designated for assignment on Friday to make room for Joel Zumaya's return. In exchange Bautista, the Pirates sent 24-year-old minor league reliever Kyle Pearson, who had been pitching at High-A Lynchburg and is currently on the disabled list. Pearson hasn't pitched since May 16th.

Bautista currently has a 3.32 ERA (125 ERA+) in 16 appearances with 19.0 IP, 14BB, and 10 Ks. He has not pitched since throwing two innings against the Dodgers on June 15th, surrendering one hit and a walk.

"I'm alive and doing fine."

2008-06-25T10:39:00.007-05:00

Fill thine cup with "Ahrn" City and rejoice, as the Buccos took the first of a three game set against the most-hated Yankees by a score of 12-5 last night. This was thanks in some part to the inspiration of Pirate legend Bill Mazeroski, who threw out the ceremonial first pitch (thanks to MLB for the pic) in the first real game played by the Pirates and Yanks in Pittsburgh since that fateful day almost 48 years ago.

Rare are the days that I don't have much to complain with regard to the performance of those crazy Pittsburgh Pirates, but this is certainly one of them. Nate McClouth continued his All-Star campaign by going 2-5 with two doubles, and as I learned today from The Hardball Times, in all of MLB, he sits behind only Houston's Lance Berkman in win shares and win shares above bench. I'll save the All-Star voting talk for another time, as I'm sure Mr. McClouth will make the team, but good on him for maintaining an extremely productive year so far for a team that has had very few in recent years from guys not named Jason Bay.

Back to the game, things started well early for the home town team, with McClouth, Freddy Sanchez (3-5, 3R, 1RBI) and even the much maligned Adam LaRoche (3-5, 1R, 2RBI) accounting for two runs on three hits off the Yankees' starter Darrell Rasner, who gave up 7 runs on 10 hits before leaving after the 5th. Tom Gorzelanny battled all day (6 IP, 6H, 3ER, 5 BB, 2K, 1.833 WHIP), but managed to get Bobby Abreu to hit into a double play in the 3rd, and also induced a grounder from Melky Cabrera to escape a bases loaded 2-out jam in the 4th.

As mentioned in this space before, Gorzelanny has been pretty rough this season. Any outing where you post a WHIP of 1.83 and a K/BB ratio of 0.4 and escape with a win is a blessing. However, I'll give the guy credit for getting himself out of a couple jams and going six strong, thus saving the bullpen an inning or two of extra work. His home/road ERA split is still alarming (4.84 versus 8.63), and his home OPS allowed now sits at a staggering .231 lower than his road OPS allowed (.768 versus .999). The difference is basically in his SLG % allowed, which is probably accounted for by the fact that he's given up 10 HR on the road vs. only 2 at PNC Park. He only gave up 7 HR on the road all of last season. Tommy, keep the ball in the yard when you go out of town, would ya?

With regard to the HR, Jose Bautista (1-4, 1R, 2RBI) and Ryan Doumit (3-5, 2R, 2RBI) continued their hot-hitting ways by sending a ball over the fence, and in Doumit's case, beond the seats in right-center. It wasn't quite the deepest part of the park, but it was definitely a well-hit ball. Bautista is now .308/.352/.585 in June, with 5HR and 16RBI, so hopefully he has managed to find his way and will continue to do so. Doumit just refuses to ever see the bench again, posting Pujolsian splits in June of .350/.422/.800, which gives him a sOPS of 216 for June (as always, league average is 100). So, despite all reason, the offense continues to produce.

This evening, we get to experience the mystery that is Joba Chamberlain (decisionless in four starts since moving to the rotation). Hopefully hitting coach Don Long encourages them to drive up the pitch count as much as possible, and Zach Duke continues to improve (5.34, 3.68, 2.70 ERAs in April-June, respectively.). Chamberlain is downright nasty against right-handers, so the onus will probably be on McClouth, Doumit, and LaRoche to provide some offense this evening.

If nothing else, we can relish last night's game and Jason Giambi's ridiculous moustache for just a little while longer.

Lineup Analysis

2008-06-24T12:10:00.004-05:00

This is the best and worst thing I've seen in a while:

Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis function as applied to the Pirates' everyday lineup.

The best lineup is the following:

1 - Bay
2 - Doumit
3 - Bautista
4 - Nady
5 - McClouth
6 - Sanchez
7 - Wilson
8 - LaRoche
9 - Pitcher

That lineup produces 4.969 runs/game, only slightly better than the actual rate of 4.868 runs/game, which amounts to a less than 8 run improvement on the team total of 370 runs, which would still put the Pythagorean record below the actual record of 36-40.

The good news is that the lineups John Russell is sending out there aren't doing much worse than the best possible lineup, and given the major psychological shift it would cause to start the order with Bay-Doumit-Bautista, the difference is insignificant.

The bad news is that despite their awful pitching, the Pirates are still beating their Pythagorean record, which means that unless they significantly curb the runs allowed in the second half, it doesn't matter in what order JR sends the boys out there to hit, because they're headed for losing season number 16. Also, as I keep saying and the stats bear out, Freddy Sanchez has no business batting anywhere near the top of the order.

Brush off the Haters

2008-06-24T11:33:00.003-05:00

With the Yankees coming to town and Jack Wilson mentioned in the article, I figured it was OK to link to mention this:

Though I do think Derek Jeter is vastly overrated because he's a "gamer" and he plays in New York, and he's the captain, and he poops rainbows, etc., but our friend Pizza Cutter over at the fantastic blog Statistically Speaking has been working on a new fielding stat that tells us Jeter isn't quite as bad defensively as we all think. He's still pretty bad, though.

I think it was on Bill Simmons' podcast with Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus where I heard that since OBP, OPS and various other offensive stats are becoming more and more employed throughout MLB evaluations, defensive metrics are going to be the new "hot" thing. Since they're much harder to quantify, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, but it seems to be off to an interesting start so far.

Since the Epstein era began in Boston, defense has played a much more important role. I won't credit it for the emergence of the Sawks as perhaps the premiere organization in MLB, but you have to at least tip your Moneyball cap to those who realized a market weakness and noticed that saving runs allowed by playing good defense is perhaps a little more important than we all thought.

The Bucco Blitz

2008-06-23T23:48:00.009-05:00

My apologies for being absent for three days. Every five years or so your alma mater comes calling, and you have to answer. I'm back home now, and ready to inundate you with all things Pittsburgh Pirates. To that end, here we go:

First of all, Beyond the Box Score wrote a great piece on the Pirates' offense shortly before I left town that I didn't have time to post here. They conclude that the production from Jason Bay, Nate McClouth, and (a presumably healthy and untraded) Xavier Nady may slip ever so slightly in the second half, but any decrease in production will probably be counterbalanced by an increase from Adam LaRoche and (a presumably healthy) Freddy Sanchez, both of whom have been hurt by a BABIP well below their career averages.

Let me also respond to the huge embarrassing failure that was the Chicago series, just like some A-hole predicted. There's nothing that can be said for the lousy pitching performances that were turned in other than that perhaps after spending some time with Greensburg native Rocco Mediate, Ian Snell is obviously not right, and apparently neither is Phil Dumatrait. Obviously, the problem here is that the Pirates are Old Mother Hubbard when it comes to pitching depth in the minors, so the likes of T.J. Beam (in lieu of Jesse Chavez) and the beloved John Van Benschoten will carry the load in their absence. I'm interested to see what Beam brings to the table, considering JVB and Co. will be keeping him very busy if recent performance is any indication of what is to come.

Dejan says that Snell may only miss just the one start on Friday, and that Dumatrait should be ready to pitch when he is eligible to come off the DL on July 5th. Nyjer Morgan also made his way back to Pittsburgh, going hitless in six ABs over the weekend.

Speaking of the weekend series, The Buccos used the friendly confines of PNC Park to try and redeem themselves, besting the Toronto Blue Jays in their first ever trip to Pittsburgh, in an effort to show what would have happened in the 1992 World Series had he-who-shall-not-be-named been able to throw out Sid Bream. Jack Wilson stayed classy and played in his 1,000th game as a Pirate in the 6-3 win on Saturday. (Also, at the bottom of that article is a note that 15 of the State College Spikes are players from the 2008 draft.)

The Bronx Bombers come to town tomorrow for the first real game since Bill Mazeroski hit the greatest home run of all time to end the 1960 World Series. More on that tomorrow, but to end things, some quick hits:

- Maz will throw out the first pitch tomorrow night, of which I obviously approve. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'd love to sit down with Maz and pick his brain about all things Pirate (though mostly Clemente). He just always struck me as an interesting and humble guy.

- Gene Collier plays the same old tune that we hear every year, that MLB is unfair for small-market teams. He's right, but for the wrong reasons. The Yankees are not the team he should hate; I'd say Boston is a much better candidate. More on that this week as well.

- At the bottom of this article, there's a note that Pedro Alvarez and Tanner Scheppers, the first two Pirates picks of this year's draft, may be the last two to sign contracts, which would bring the total to 26 out of 50 that would be signed.

- Ron Cook pats Neal Huntington on the back for exercising patience, while taking slight shots at him for signing two guys to long-term (ish) contracts who are under-performing, referring to Huntington as having a .333 average with long-term contracts so far. Nevermind that the two players he mentions as potential "misses" (Snell and Sanchez) got hurt after they signed those contracts, or that it's not even the All-Star break of the first year of those contracts. Though it's still "too early to pass judgment," let's pass Neal a backhanded compliment by saying that .333 average makes him an "All-Star" compared to Bonifay and Littlefield. The guy signed two of the team's best young pitchers and a batting champion with good years left to reasonable contracts that didn't commit the team to a huge long-term expense, let's not take shots at him because two of those guys got hurt. I hear it happens pretty regularly. As you can tell, I love it when someone writes a column evaluating trades and at the same time says it's too early to pass judgment. "Hey guys, two and a half months into this four-year deal it looks like a real bust! Whatever shall we do now? Did I meet my deadline? Good."

Until tomorrow.

No More Bayliss, eh?

2008-06-19T14:11:00.003-05:00

The Trib is reporting that Jonah Bayliss has been traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for a ~~case of Molson Canadian~~ player to be named later.

Bayliss has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.625 WHIP in 71 1/3 professional innings pitched.

He was pitching in Indianapolis, where he had an 0-3 record with a 6.00 ERA in 10 2/3 IP.