The End of the Beginning

Not that it should be a surprise to any of you (I assume there are many who still follow this site), but I have closed up shop here, mostly for personal reasons relating to the time management issues that come with both working and going to school full-time.

There is good news, however. I've decided to reboot my blogging effort, this time over at Wordpress: http://inclementeweather.wordpress.com/. Though I will still write from a saber-friendly perspective, I'm going to try to stop acting like I really understand all that stuff, and write from more of a personal perspective.

Feel free to add me to your RSS feeds at the new site. Enjoy the season!

Oh, Andrew!

(WPA Graph: FanGraphs)

Regardles of the exploits of The Legend, Garrett Jones, it's becoming abundantly clear that the best player on this Pirates team is Andrew McCutchen. He started very well, and has actually gotten better as the year has progressed. We've all been down this road with Pirate center fielders before, but I am extremely bullish on McCutchen's potential at this point, and would put his ceiling at somewhere around (if not slightly north of) Grady Sizemore or Carl Crawford, two All-Star center fielders. Then again, we all know what the floor looks like too. (See Hermansen, Chad.)

All that being said, let me show you some splits from Cutch's inaugural campaign, and please bear in mind that these all come with "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE" at the top:

First Half (166 PA): .292/.343/.455, with a .350 BABIP

Second Half (152 PA): .281/.375/.508, with a .288 BABIP

Last 21 Games (92 PA): .320/.424/.613, with a .276 BABIP

RISP (63 PA): .354/.460/.688, with 4 HR and 31 RBI

2 outs, RISP (29 PA): .261/.414/.565, with 2 HR and 10 RBI

High Leverage (49 PA): .326/.367/.535, with 1 HR and 19 RBI

This is at a premium defensive position, while playing well above average defense (10.4 UZR/150), 3rd best in the National League in center field among players with at least 500 innings there.

So it's justified that my heart flutters every time I hear his name, right?

I'm just saying...

As of last night's game, according to FanGraphs Andrew McCutchen has been worth 2.3 WAR (wins above replacement level) in 293 plate appearances over his first two and a half months as a major league player at the tender age of 22. His current wOBA of .359 is best among rookies with at least 250 PA.

If we assume that over a full year that Cutch would get about 700 PA, which is pretty reasonable, that equates to 5.49 WAR over a full season. Raise that number to 750 PA, which is probably high end, but reachable for a leadoff hitter, and that number jumps to 5.89 WAR.

That range of 5.49 - 5.89 would easily put him in the Top 20 position players in the National League, right up there with guys like Jimmy Rollins (5.3 WAR in 2008), Brian McCann (5.8 WAR in 2008), and Jose Reyes (5.9 WAR in 2008). As a rookie.

I don't want to hype him up too much, too soon, but this is not Chad Hermansen, J.J. Davis, or Tike Redman. This guy might just very well be the real *bleeping* deal.

"Ay Dios Mio!"

As anyone who has recently watched the Pittsburgh Pirates play their specific brand of baseball can attest, there has been an overabundance of terrible play in pretty much every aspect of the game since the July 31 trading deadline. The only person keeping the offense afloat is the legendary Andrew McCutchen, who continues to play at a level that does not correspond with his service time. Here's the stats for your starters and relevant bench players in the month of August:

Garrett Jones (60 PA): .259/.333/.444, 6 BB, 18 (!) K, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Andrew McCutchen (57 PA): .304/.404/.630, 9 BB, 5 K, 4 HR, 9 RBI [with a .256 (!) BABIP]

Lastings Milledge (56 PA): .212/.255/.269, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 4 RBI

Ronny Cedeno (55 PA): .275/.315/.392, 2 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Delwyn Young (53 PA): .275/.302/.412, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 8 RBI

Andy LaRoche (50 PA): .238/.360/.381, 7 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Ryan Doumit (44 PA): .186/.205/.326, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Steve Pearce (37 PA): .258/.378/.419, 6 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Brandon Moss (33 PA): .200/.273/.200, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 2 RBI

Ramon Vazquez (19 PA): .333/.474/.467, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 0 RBI


So there's the damage, and it's certainly damaging. I'd chalk it up to a bad month, but the team also hit .225/.252/.372 in July while Garrett Jones was doing his Pujols impression with a .310/.361/.700 (!!!) slash line, including 10 HR and 17 RBI. A few thoughts:

1. When is the Brandon Moss experiment going to be over? You've seen what he's hitting in August; he hit .185/.302/.407 in July, with a half-decent .281/.339/.386 in June, and another terrible .203/.254/.271 in April. Leave out his one good month of numbers in May, and the guy is having a really dreadful season with almost non-existent power. It may be time to accept that he's just not a major league player.

2. For all the people I've seen complain about Neal Huntington expecting Garrett Jones to come back to earth, it looks like that might finally be happening. I would expect to see Steve Pearce getting more PA at first base and perhaps in RF if Jeff Clement demonstrates any ability to play first base before getting a September call-up.

3. Ryan Doumit has looked bad at times, to be sure, but his .194 BABIP in August is well off his career line of .301, so I would expect some improvement from him in the near future. To my completely untrained eye, he doesn't look at all comfortable at the plate, which is causing him to hit more ground balls and fly balls and less line drives. His LD rate is 12% right now, well off his 2007 (20%) and 2008 (23%) numbers. Hopefully things will turn around for him in the last six weeks of the season.


What else can be said about how bad this team is playing right now? It really has been a dreadful three weeks, and even longer if you leave out the stylings of McCutchen and Jones (July version). I'll do my best to repeat this process with the pitching staff tomorrow, which should be even more gut-wrenching. I know we're all looking forward to it.

Realignment

Tom Tango's post on getting rid of our geographical tendencies would be good for baseball. I've long argued against the most recent re-alignment that sent the Pirates to the NL Central where they have no real rivalries (besides, perhaps, the budding feud between the Bucs and the Beer Makers).

#2 on Tom's post argues for a 4-6-8-12 divisional system along market-based lines where the top two teams from each division advance to an eight team playoff, which got my mind grapes working on how I would realign the current structure in baseball to accomodate that. I decided on a 6-6-8-10 system instead of 4-6-8-12, since that seemed to work a little better, and though I toyed with the idea of also incorporating a promotion/relegation system, I couldn't find a sensible way to make it work.

Anyway, here is the breakdown:

Top Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
New York Mets
New York Yankees

Second Tier (6 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers

Third Tier (8 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Florida Marlins
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals

Fourth Tier (10 teams, top 2 make the playoffs):

Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
Oakland A's
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays


I'd imagine it would get a little hairy with the travel arrangements going from Seattle to Miami a few times a year, but you could schedule it so there's a swing through the DC area before/after to play the Nats and O's. This is not too far from the current conference system in the NCAA, albeit on a much larger scale. The biggest money teams (or conferences) end up meeting in the playoffs more, just like we have right now, and your Pittsburgh Pirates toil away in baseball's version of the WAC.

Theoretically, this makes the Pirates' chance of making the playoffs worse (20% instead of just under 25%), but in actuality it might be better given the constant competition with the least competitive teams. Anyway, just some food for thought, since it has no chance of ever becoming reality any time soon.

Send Me on My Way

I'm trying to get back into regularly posting; we'll see how that goes. For now, R.J. Anderson over at the invaluable Fangraphs has some quick thoughts on the Grabow/Gorzelanny trade.

Money quote:

"Back to the Pirates trades as a whole, I ran the math for service time. Without including 2009’s service time, the Pirates have traded 28 years worth of team control time for 95 years worth. Obviously not every player acquired is going to reach the majors or be attractive enough to keep through their first six years, but wow, talk about adding some depth."

Say what you will about Neal Hungtington trading away half the 25-man roster over the last two months, but you can't deny he's stuck to his strategy religiously over the last two years.

The New-Look Buccos

There's going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth if the reported deal of Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan goes through, particularly from the ill-informed. Milledge deserves more than the time I have to give him right now, but as for Hanrahan, he's not nearly as bad as his stats look.

First, go here to see his current year and career statistics.

The first thing other than the 7.71 ERA that jumps out at me is his insane .451 BABIP, way off his career norms, and the norm for any pitcher. As you may already know from my earlier post on this subject, BABIP for pitchers tends to fall very close to .300. Hanrahan's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.56 for the year, actually better than last year when his ERA was 3.95.

What that tells you is that he's had some very bad luck, and his numbers should return to a much reasonable level in the second half of the season. ZiPS has him going with a 3.80 ERA the rest of the way, with 47 K's in 45 IP. His K/9 numbers have been very good since being promoted, and he's cutting down on his BB/9 as well as his HR/9. The guy is a good reliever, he just hasn't had the fortune to show it yet.

More Tony Sanchez

Erik Manning over at the invaluable FanGraphs has a solidly-reasoned take on the Pirates selecting Tony Sanchez with the fourth selection of this year's draft. Money portion:

So what sort of a big league future do scouts envision for Sanchez? In a nutshell, they see a defense-first catcher with slightly above average hitting skills. Being a catcher is about as physically and mentally demanding job as you can imagine, making them harder to come by. That’s why they get a +12.5 run adjustment when figuring their WAR. And most catchers really suck at hitting; the average regular catcher posted a .315 wOBA last year. Say Sanchez meets expectations by being good for a .320 wOBA and half a win on defense every season. We’re talking about a 2, 2 ½ win per season player. Is that really so awful?

After playing it safe with their highest and most expensive pick, Pittsburgh then loaded up on some high-upside arms, including some potentially tough to sign players. Seems to me Huntington executed a well-laid out plan. Play it safe first with a college position player, then load up on pitching when the distinct advantages disappear.

I realize that it's difficult for the casual fan to appreciate the logic behind taking a player with marketable skills that are likely to be preserved, despite the fact that the player in question does not have the best potential or "upside," highest ceiling, whatever at the spot he was taken. However, particularly if the Pirates invest a lot of money in Miguel Angel Sano, this is precisely the draft strategy that makes sense for Team Neal.

2.5 WAR a year is nothing to shake a stick at, particularly if you're strong at other positions. Just keep that in mind.

Andrew McCutchen has just hit his first career major league home run off the Twins' Francisco Liriano in the top of the third with Jack Wilson on base to put the Pirates up 2-0.

More Draft Feedback

More from Keith Law (ESPN Insiders only) on the Pirates' work today in rounds 4-30 of the first year player draft:

Pittsburgh's selection of Tony Sanchez at No. 4 overall on Tuesday was the most controversial pick of the day, but the Pirates did do one thing they promised, taking some tough-sign high school pitchers on Wednesday. Their philosophy is that high school arms are so volatile that paying premium prices in the first round is a poor strategy, and that the value of that first pick (when you might get a premium bat or college arm) is too high to surrender, so try to stockpile young arms in later rounds. Whether Sanchez was the best pick for slot is another question -- I don't think he was -- but the idea of adding young arms who fell due to signability reasons is a sound one, and they added four good ones, two from my top 100 in Jordan Cooper and Zach Von Rosenburg and two who would have ranked in the next 50 or so players in Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson. Stevenson and Cooper both looked like top-two-round picks last summer, but neither had a good spring, with Stephenson losing a little velocity and Cooper pitching very inconsistently until late in the season. If the Pirates sign three of those four kids, it's a great draft, and if they sign two, it's still a good one.

Also, John Perrotto (a name you should have known before his days at piratesreport.com) has some thoughts that roughly echo KLaw.

Some Draft (and other) Thoughts

Before everyone goes all "Same old Pirates" on you, let's consider for a second that Tony Sanchez is universally considered to be the best college catcher in an admittedly much weaker draft than last year, and someone who by all accounts should contribute at the major league level within three years. This is not a situation where the Pirates passed up someone like super-mega-phenom Matt Wieters with a pick like Danny Moskos. They chose a bona fide prospect at a position higher than he probably should have gone. Keith Law's thoughts are (as usual) pretty accurate on this matter.

There's also some criticism being leveled by various sources regarding the Pirates being constrained by budgetary concerns, and wanting to conserve some money on their first round pick (again, in an admittedly weak draft), so that they can spend more money to sign other picks. This would seem to me to be sound business strategy, since the Pirates are short on minor league talent, and would do well by themselves to try and sign as many of their draftees as possible. However, it seems as though many fail to recognize the fact that the Pittsburgh are in fact a business venture. EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL HAS A DRAFT BUDGET. I believe the Pirates spent more money last year in the draft than just about every other team, yet you still hear the same complaining that the club doesn't want to open its checkbook even before the draft and signing period are over. Can we at least wait to see what happens before we pass judgment? Please?

Part of my whining here stems back to the McLouth trade, so I should probably be a little more open about my motivation here: I'm sick of the constant complaining about the Pirates. I've been a fan of this team as long as I've been alive. I hated Dave Littlefield as much as the rest of you, and I've watched as my favorite baseball team was basically bludgeoned to death over the last decade and a half just as much as you have. I get why the vast majority of the people who follow this team are frustrated, and I get that there is a certain "guilty until proven innocent" attitude that they take with the front office as a de facto position, but the constant negativity and rushing to judgment by this fan base is, quite frankly, maddening.

Pittsburgh is a spoiled sports city. I say this as someone who has vociferously and unwaveringly supported the Steelers, Penguins, and Pirates for my entire life, despite the fact that I haven't lived in Pittsburgh since I was a small child. I've supported them in Columbus, for four years while I went to school in (of all places) Cleveland, and while I was wandering in the great Southwest. One thing has never changed about Pittsburgh fans: They feel that winning every game, every year is their birthright. They take losing as badly as any fanbase, and the current situtation of the Pirates has compounded that frustration to almost unimaginable levels. What it's created is an angry, pessimistic, almost wholly negative group of followers for something that is supposed to be an enjoyable diversion from the things that really matter.

After 16 years of futility, the fans of the Pirates are ready to criticize anything that doesn't produce immediate positive results. On a certain level I understand that, as I want to be in attendance for playoff games at PNC Park before I get my first Social Security check, but baseball is not the NFL or the NHL. Developing talent takes years, not just one training camp. Sometimes judging these decisions immediately is obvious, like Moskos over Wieters, but that does not apply to the McLouth/Nady/Bay trades, and it certainly doesn't apply to Tony Sanchez.

Personally, I think Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have earned at least a little bit of trust in their first (almost) two years on the job. Can we please put the torches and pitchforks away for a little while?

The pick is officially Jorge "Tony" Sanchez, the catcher from Boston College. Great defense, and considered to be the best college catcher in the draft. Hit over .300 with an OPS over 1.000, but the strength of his bat is the concern. If he can hit, he should be on a fast track to the majors.

Didn't see that coming, did you?

Well, Team Neal pulled a fast one on us yet again, trading starting center fielder Nate McLouth to the Braves for three prospects: AAA pitcher Charlie Morton, AA outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, and high-A pitcher Jeff Locke. Replacing McLouth will be highly-touted prospect Andrew McCutchen, who will make his debut in about an hour against the Mets at PNC Park. McLouth was signed through the next three years for just under $16 million, so this couldn't really be construed as a salary dump; at least from the perspective of the Pirates' front office, this move was strictly baseball-related.

And you know what? I agree with it. As Keith Law tweeted, from 6/1/08 through 6/1/09, McLouth has hit .256/.327/.447 in 630 PA. That's basically a full season's worth of mediocre performance. I realize he's hit 9 HR this year, and was second on the team with 0.68 WPA/LI (behind...gasp...Freddy Sanchez), but that slash line does not justify the Bucs keeping him throughout the rest of his contract. Nate came out of the gates really fast last year, and didn't play nearly as well down the stretch. Nyjer Morgan's defense has helped McLouth look much better (giving up only 1 run in the field for every 6 he contributes with the bat, as opposed to 1 for 2), but he is still a defensive liability without a good LF next to him. The bottom line is that his current performance is much closer to his true talent level, and at 27, he has a lot less use to the club than three good prospects who each have a higher ceiling.

Of course, Nate's departure also gives us the opportunity to see what kind of asset the club has in Andrew McCutchen. I'm sure you've read the party line that said McCutchen would play when he's "ready," but apparently what that really meant was "as soon as we trade McLouth." My unabashed appreciation for McCutchen has been documented here and elsewhere, so I won't go crazy, but just let me say that I thought about calling off work today so I could make the three hour drive to be in Pittsburgh for the game (which I did Tuesday night to see Santana). McCutchen's current line of .303/.361/.493 shows he's about as ready as he's going to be, and at 22, I'm tempted to say the sky's the limit with him. Can you tell I'm excited?

It's a tough move to swallow on June 3rd, particularly because the Pirates' pythagorean record is 26-26, meaning they've lost a couple games they shouldn't have (and would probably get back later), but there's no way this team is jumping all four or even three of the Milwaukee-St. Louis-Cincinnati-Chicago group currently blocking them in the standings. It might mean the difference between finishing with 73 and 76 wins to make this deal now, but who really cares about that? In the end, I think this trade will be looked upon quite favorably.

Huntington on MLB Network now defending trade. He says Charlie Morton is not far away, and all three are potentially above-average major leaguers. Mentions Hernandez, Morgan, and McCutchen as a potentially great defensive outfield.

Overreact Much?

From Dejan's weekly Q&A session in the PG:

Q: Why would a manager of a Major League Baseball team -- the Pittsburgh Pirates -- refuse a team invitation to attend a private tour and meeting with the President of the U.S.? I understand that James Harrison of the Steelers is standing his ground. But John Russell is the manager of a team. Should he not be there as part of the team? I say fire him for insubordination of the Pirates team and as a representative of the city of Pittsburgh.

Kathleen Twele of Elizabeth

KOVACEVIC: There is a significant difference between being invited to the White House and asking for a tour. The Pirates, hardly a reigning champion, did the latter. And never was President Obama expected to be part of that tour, so meeting him was not "refused," as you put it. Some of the Pirates wanted to see the White House. Some did not.

Can't you hear "The Battle Hymn of the Republic" in the background as you read that? I love the Steelers just as much as the next guy, but I find it very fitting of Pittsburghers that a Steeler (especially one who is Defensive Player of the Year) gets a free pass for skipping out on a meeting with the POTUS, while the manager of the Pirates has to be fired for skipping a tour that the President was never going to attend. Every village has its idiots, I guess.

Mr. Wonderful

Not to steal a nickname from our friends over at Mondesi's House, but Pirates' starter Ross Ohlendorf has looked pretty sterling in the majority of his outings this season, including another fine effort last night against the Cardinals in front of the PNC Park faithful. He surrendered only one run on two hits in six innings while getting 5 strikeouts and 0 walks. The run came on a home run by Skip Schumaker; the only blemish on a pretty strong pitching performance.

So what is the secret to Mr. Ohlendorf's success? Well, a huge part of it, as much as it pains me to admit, is his .246 BABIP which is way off the normal .300 or so for pitchers. You may have read Dejan mention this a couple times in his articles, but the Buccos have benefited from an inordinate number of balls in play being turned into outs. Part of that is improved defense, but most of it is just good luck.

To give you some perspective, Greg Maddux's career BABIP is .286. Pedro Martinez's is .282. Their best seasons were .246 and .237 respectively, when each was at his peak. I by no means think that any of the Pirates' starters have that kind of year in them, so I think Ohlendorf and Zach Duke, who is at .265 are both due for a regression to the mean in the very near future.

Part of Ohlendorf's success (if I can play pitching coach here for a second), is that all his pitches are coming from roughly the same release point, as last night's graph shows here, and he's changing speed's effectively, as you can see here. Though his stuff may not have a lot of snap to it, the ability to change speeds between a 91-92 mph fastball and a 81-82 mph change and slider will help you keep hitters off balance.

Also, Ohlendorf's change and slider are averaging about the same speed, but as you can see below, their break is very different. Pitch f/x actually has him as throwing a two-seam and a curveball, but I think those are just mis-identified pitches, considering there are only 9 of them total.

A few more balls in play are going to end up being hits, but if Ohlendorf (and Duke) can find a way to miss more bats and keep doing what has gotten them to this point, the regression will not be as painful. Here's hoping, I guess.

For all the (very accurate) talk of the Pirates' starters not being able to miss bats, Ross Ohlendorf just struck out the side in the top of the sixth to help keep the Bucs up 2-1.

Now we're talking.

I will be completely honest here. Nothing, NOTHING, that Dejan has written since spring training has made me more excited than the quote from Pirates' manager John Russell that appeared in today's feature story:

"Tejada swings on a 1-2 count 87 percent of the time if you throw him a changeup," Russell said. "That's not Joe making up a number. That's what the player does."

I haven't even finished reading the story yet; I was so excited that I had to immediately say something about it. Quite frankly, I don't know if this kind of thing was going on during the McClatchy/Littlefield/Tracy years or not, but given my limited understanding of Jim Tracy, I doubt it, and it's exactly the type of analysis the club needs to be successful. Give these guys a simple matchup stat that tells them exactly what they need to do for a certain batter in a certain situation, and it puts them in a good position to be successful.

Chances are that if you throw Tejada a good changeup on a 1-2 count, he's going to swing at it, and he's not going to hit it particularly well. Seems simple enough, right? Well it's just the sort of thing that shows this club might finally be headed in the right direction.

The Duke is dealing out on the west coast. Good to see him bounce back well from Sunday's struggles. Through 4, he's thrown 49 pitches, 34 of which have been strikes. Buccos are up 5-0 in the top of the 5th.

At the Indy game here in Columbus. Indy up 3-2 on a HR from Steve Pearce. Tom Gorzelanny is in the stands working a radar gun.